Global Health Effects on Markets and Mining Stock

The flu is a serious and deadly killer. (The sickest I’ve ever been in my life was when I caught the flu when I was a kid.) That is why there is countless public service announcements made about it every year and always a huge push for vaccinations especially since it never clear just how bad a particular flu season will be.

However, If you use the current CDC numbers, the coronavirus is 30 times more lethal than the seasonal flu and is expected to infect 60% of the population prior to a vaccine being developed without good social distancing being followed.

The coronavirus is a zoonotic virus(the flu is a human virus) that nobody has immunity to. It hasn’t adjusted to living in people yet; hence the high death rate. It is easier to catch than the flu or even the common cold. It deserves the respect it is now getting. Maybe at the end of the day, it won’t have been that big a deal but it will only be because containment efforts were effective.

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Perhaps worldwide 30 times worse. But here in the states it’s been much closer to seasonal flu territory. It’s also never clear if the vaccination is going to be effective. Viruses are tricky, they deserve our respect and certainly taking precautions is in order. But at what cost? And will we do this every year now? Sounds terrible.

Here in Michigan; the virus mortality is at 2.8% currently with 1000 new cases just today. We must not wash our hands here or something?!! (Detroit has very tough demographics; perhaps worse in some ways than Italy. Still, low rates of testing for the less serious cases is skewing the numbers by at least 50% or more.)

Exactly. The mortality rate would certainly be less than 2.8% if we knew all the cases. We dont. You might have 10000 new cases but only 1000 of them were tested and were positive. We may never know the true mortality of cv19.

They will know. They will do random antibody tests to determine the number that actually got infected and look at changes in the average historical death rate among other things.(For instance, Italy review of historical data shows drastic undercounting of the dead as many are dying in their homes that are never tested.) They do have some more broad datasets already such as for Iceland and Princess cruise ship. I believe that about 50 percent dont show symptoms but test positive to give you an idea.

FYI…simple chart on why masks work. They aren’t perfect as the thousands of infected medical workers can attest to but better than nothing.

Note CDC will be recommending masks be worn in the near future:https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/cdc-considering-recommending-general-public-wear-face-coverings-in-public/2020/03/30/6a3e495c-7280-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html

As was noted in an earlier post, confusing case-fatality rate with mortality is not a valid predictive model. Such early prediction based on limited data collection lacks widespread testing of the population. Added to the confusion is the so-called “death rate” that is properly a retrospective percentage of the population that was infected, and usually not available until some years after an outbreak is fully analyzed. As more and more data is collected, multiple problems requiring input with multiple variables will deliver a variety of more accurate solutions. The predictive models are changing daily with the increasingly more complexity, so stay tuned to reliable sources of information.

Note that Abbott’s rapid testing platform that is becoming widely available is an RT-PCR viral test. We were clearly behind on our available testing, but rapidly catching up. We have yet to have available the other half of the solution, a rapid antibody testing platform that is needed to separate the sick, from the recovered sick with antibodies that eliminate the virus, and those that have not yet caught the COVID-19 virus in the population. Such an antibody test is being developed through collaborative efforts around the world. Here is an excerpt from a very long article why the most common method of testing, RT-PCR tests, are not always reliable. Read the entire article if you would like to understand the full context:

COVID-19 testing

The RT-PCR tests are just one way to test for the virus – and it only detects it when people are still acutely infected, and the virus is still making all that RNA to make all the proteins it needs to make more of itself and infect more cells.

Once the virus is “conquered” by a person’s immune system, that viral RNA isn’t there anymore; however, evidence of the proteins made from it is – the immune response that allowed the body to fight off the virus involved making little proteins called antibodies that recognize specific pieces of the viral proteins as “foreign” and trigger an immune response.

After the initial infection, it takes a while for the body to develop antibodies against it – the process involves the viral proteins getting chopped up and their pieces placed “on display,” held by proteins jutting out from immune cells. Your body goes through a random “trial and error” approach to making antibodies that recognize (bind to) those viral protein pieces and then make more of the matching antibodies. More here: Antibodies – production, types & uses in the lab – The Bumbling Biochemist

Some of these antibodies stick around after the infection’s over to “keep watch” so that, if that same virus tries again, the immune system doesn’t have to go through the trial and error phase of finding an appropriate antibody. So, tests that look for antibodies can see if someone previously had the virus, even after they’ve recovered, and this can be used to trace cases back to see the line of transmission even if the transmitters are no longer symptomatic and don’t have the RNA that the RT-PCR tests could detect.

The antibody tests are quicker and they’re typically done on blood samples, but a downside with them is that, since they come from the immune response finally gaining some ground on the virus, they can’t detect the virus as early in an infection, while the RT-PCR way can.

COVID-19 testing – The Bumbling Biochemist

There’s another fascinating story that I’ll post a link to for those who may be interested on how RT-PCR testing was even developed. Here is some excerpts from “the story” with the link included and a brief explanation of how it works:

Key ingredient in coronavirus tests comes from Yellowstone’s lakes
Today, those enzymes are a key component in polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, a method used widely in labs around the world to study small samples of genetic material by making millions of copies. This technique, which would have been impossible without the discovery of heat-resistant bacteria more than half a century ago, is now being used to boost the signal of viruses in most of the available tests for COVID-19.

As the novel coronavirus sweeps around the world, testing has become the crux of tracking—and hopefully slowing—the pandemic’s advance. While authorities have been slow in making COVID-19 tests widely available in the U.S., the PCR process that is the vital backbone of the test is relatively simple and quick, thanks to a cluster of bacteria thriving in the thermal pools of Yellowstone.

Since the discovery of DNA’s elegant double helix in 1953, scientists have grappled with the challenge of studying these tiny genetic molecules. To see and understand different types of DNA, scientists needed large scale samples.

For years, PCR testing was “super laborious, it took forever,” says Julie Huber, an oceanographer at Woods Hole. “But now it’s so easy and routine.”

The COVID-19 test uses this same process—but with a few additional steps. The genetic material of the novel coronavirus is RNA, rather than DNA, which is similar but encodes its genetic instructions with different building blocks in just a single strand. The RNA of the virus is converted to DNA first. The test also includes a fluorescent tag that highlights the copies of the virus’ genetic material in a nasal swab. The more copies that are made with PCR, the brighter the sample.

Key ingredient in coronavirus tests comes from Yellowstone’s lakes

But what I really wanted to post is a major part of the “game changer” by Abbott labs. One should also note the system we had in place until very recently was tightly controlled centrally by the CDC, which is largely a data collection agency and policies regulated by the FDA. It is now decentralized into FDA certified commercial labs (private enterprise) and state health agencies, which are proving to be a much more efficient and logical solution for rapid large scale population testing:

ABBOTT LAUNCHES MOLECULAR POINT-OF-CARE TEST TO DETECT NOVEL CORONAVIRUS IN AS LITTLE AS FIVE MINUTES

  • The Abbott ID NOW™ COVID-19 test brings rapid testing to the front lines

  • Test to run on Abbott’s point-of-care ID NOW platform - a portable instrument that can be deployed where testing is needed most

  • ID NOW has the largest molecular point-of-care installed base in the U.S. and is available in a wide range of healthcare settings

  • Abbott will be making ID NOW COVID-19 tests available next week and expects to ramp up manufacturing to deliver 50,000 tests per day

  • This is the company’s second test to receive Emergency Use Authorization by the FDA for COVID-19 detection; combined, Abbott expects to produce about 5 million tests per month

Abbott Launches Molecular Point-of-Care Test to Detect Novel Coronavirus in as Little as Five Minutes - Mar 27, 2020

Apologies again for a much too long post, but I have not had access to my home computer for some time! There is so much information available and things are going to scare the daylights out of much of the uniformed public, as well as those who are informed! Much of the “information” is just opinion and unreliable. I urge all of you to stay well informed, take precautions, and stay safe.

One more if you care to watch an investigative youtube from an Australian 60 Minutes feature, it is very scary!:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Journalist+goes+undercover+at+"wet+markets"%2C+where+the+coronavirus+statred+60+minutes+australia&docid=608033735093913698&mid=2FC875BAAB66F7644E7E2FC875BAAB66F7644E7E&view=detail&FORM=VIRE

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Who?? that decided that the World Health Organization’s decision to name the disease caused by the virus, COVID-19. The name does not clearly designate its origin in China, allowing the Chinese regime to whitewash its bungled response to this outbreak.
**… Don’t be afraid to call this virus for what it is, The CCP virus.

*** Let’s all remember ** Throughout history, the key events of a crisis are thought by those living through them in the moment to be indelibly seared into everyone’s minds. In reality, though, it is often the case that even in the most cataclysmic of times, many people forget some of the most important facts.!!! Sure, historians who study this in the future will recount that it was the Chinese government that bears the lion’s share of culpability for the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic.
But there is no reason to assume that the preeminent view among these historian will translate automatically to the common knowledge — “now or in the future”.
This is why it is so important, to reinforce this essential fact in the casual terminology we use to describe the disease: By calling it the “CCP Coronavirus,” people will never forget whose malevolent negligence it was that started the fire that eventually engulfed the entire world.
C.S.

You might find this interesting. Discovery of Patient Zero in Wuhan and China’s sloppy attempts at covering it up. I Found The Source of the Coronavirus - YouTube

The bat virus research center 280 meters from the wet market in Wuhan is well documented.(Is there any possible way that this could be a coincidence?) Here is a mainstream story about the bat lady who worked there but who has since retired. I believe a researcher hired to replace her is Patient Zero. (She and others were splashed with urine/blood samples from the bats.) https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1

Good point C.S. Before the virus was first given it’s official cover-up name it was referred to as the Wuhan virus. It’s a result of a decision in 2015 by our not so wonderful WHO to be PC. The WHO wanted to discourage names that refer to geographic places in order to avoid stigmatizing a region or it’s people. “CCP Coronavirus” is a much more appropriate name than COVID-19. Now try to get that put into a peer reviewed paper or scientific journal!

I liked the American astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson’s ad into to your media clip. Very good video report!

Did anyone catch the following coming out of the general media, or am I so bored at home that I’m the only one that still scans the “news” and media? What passes as news and which is actually fact?


Despite previous reports that coronavirus had been traced to bats, most likely the kind that could be found in wet markets like the one in Wuhan, a new report from Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao of the South China University of Technology suggests that there’s a more likely scenario — a leak from a lab.

The report detailed the tracing of COVID-19 to the intermediate horseshoe bat — a bat that they confirmed was not available at the Wuhan wet market and did not live locally. In fact, the report noted that native populations were no closer than 600 miles away from the first known cases, making a natural transmission from bat to human appear more unlikely.

The only place those particular bats existed locally was inside a research facility — which was just several hundred yards from the Wuhan wet market — and the paper’s ultimate conclusion was that the coronavirus pandemic had likely been the result of a leak from the lab: “The killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.”


The U.S. Intelligence Community reportedly presented President Donald Trump with a highly classified report last week that confirmed that communist China lied to the world about the number of cases and deaths it’s suffered from the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, which originated in China.

“China’s public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete,” Bloomberg News reported, according to three U.S. officials that it spoke to. “Two of the officials said the report concludes that China’s numbers are fake.”

“The reality is that we could have been better off if China had been more forthcoming,” Vice President Mike Pence told CNN in an interview on Wednesday. “What appears evident now is that long before the world learned in December that China was dealing with this, and maybe as much as a month earlier than that, that the outbreak was real in China.”

CNN’s Jake Tapper highlighted a report yesterday from Radio Free Asia that stated that the number of deaths that China reported is significantly lower than the truth. RFA reported:

Wuhan resident Chen Yaohui told RFA that city officials have been handing out 3,000 yuan in “funeral allowances” to the families of the dead in exchange for their silence.

“There have been a lot of funerals in the past few days, and the authorities are handing out 3,000 yuan in hush money to families who get their loved ones’ remains laid to rest ahead of Qing Ming,” he said, in a reference to the traditional grave tending festival on April 5.


Chen said nobody in the city believes the official death toll.

“The official number of deaths was 2,500 people … but before the epidemic began, the city’s crematoriums typically cremated around 220 people a day,” he said.

“But during the epidemic, they transferred cremation workers from around China to Wuhan keep cremate bodies around the clock,” he said.

Bloomberg News’ report comes after The Daily Mail reported last week that scientific advisers reportedly told British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that the communist China downplayed the true extent of the coronavirus outbreak in their country and that the real number could be “15 to 40 times” higher than what China has reported.

“Mr Johnson has been warned by scientific advisers that China’s officially declared statistics on the number of cases of coronavirus could be ‘downplayed by a factor of 15 to 40 times,’” The Daily Mail reported. “And [the British government] believes China is seeking to build its economic power during the pandemic with ‘predatory offers of help’ [to] countries around the world.’”

A recent Washington Post analysis warned against viewing the numbers out of China as being truthful. The Washington Post reported:

An article in the journal Science estimates that 86 percent of Hubei’s cases were undocumented by the time authorities extended the lockdown to Wuhan and other cities on Jan. 23.

It is also likely that officials reported lower numbers of deaths from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. Especially once the central government’s propaganda mission to win the “people’s war” against the virus became clear, numbers shifted to achieve that vision. Such shifts would probably be subtle — not hundreds or thousands of hidden deaths, but instead excluding deaths that could be attributed to other types of pneumonia or heart failure, for instance.

China also has a history of lying about epidemics that originate within its borders.

On April 21, 2003, during the SARS outbreak, The New York Times reported that China admitted to under-reporting the total number of SARS cases:

In a rare public admission of failure, if not deception, the Chinese government disclosed today that cases of a dangerous new respiratory disease were many times higher than previously reported, and stripped two top officials of their power. […]

Admitting to the existence of more than 200 previously undisclosed SARS patients in military hospitals, the official, Deputy Health Minister Gao Qiang, said that as of Friday Beijing had 339 confirmed cases of SARS and an additional 402 suspected cases.

Ten days ago, Health Minister Zhang Wenkang said there were only 22 confirmed SARS cases in Beijing. Last Wednesday, the World Health Organization caused a stir here by estimating that there could be as many as 100 to 200 cases.

If anyone is looking for a good book to read while in lockdown.
It has to do with “Effect on markets”. Stealth War

How China Took Over While America’s Elite Slept

by Robert Spalding

Narrated by Ray Porter

When will this end? When will the economy restart? What might be lurking around the corner?

The virus prediction models that have been floating around lately have been modeled around the initial first wave this Spring and don’t show what will happen next winter. What happens if you run them till they complete? These all show a super second wave to hit next Winter. The author of this article suggests that the several months of social distancing will actually cause the peak to be much worse next Winter as it would have been otherwise muted by seasonality effects if the peak had occurred over the Summer. The virus will not stop till everyone is infected or a vaccine is produced. See link below. The peak being experienced now is barely a blip compared to what is coming next Winter?! How long can people stay locked in their homes to prevent the second wave without the economy falling back to the stone age?https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64bgraphfile

194M total infections? certainly a much smaller number than the previous Billions of infections that were being projected a few weeks/months ago.

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Just for the U.S. i.e. 194 million out 327 million to become infected unless a vaccine becomes available sooner than expected.

![Daily

Source is NYT - is recent spike in NY deaths possibly due to very restricted access of Dr’s ability to prescribe hydroxychloroquine on a compassionate need basis?

Still have strong doubts about the usefulness of hydroxychloroquine. Note that its usage has been widespread in Italy so certainly no miracle cure. I think controlled studies will show that it has little or no benefit for severe cases but probably it will show benefit in resolving less severe cases quicker which helps with hospital overcrowding. I believe its usage for the H1N1 flu was hyped at one time as well before controlled tests showed 0% benefit. Still, if I come down with the virus, I would hope they give it to me. Not much else, is there?

I think you are correct, it is most useful the earlier it is used in one who has been exposed or infected. For those more severe cases, or those already on a ventilator, a plasma infusion (or gamma globulin) is the best available therapy, which is also available under compassionate use.

Here’s an excerpt from WebMD on an explanation of how it works:

In the UK, Robin May, Professor of Infectious Disease at the University of Birmingham, explained that there is a scientific rationale for the use of hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19, based on its mode of action in malaria.

In a statement through the Science Media Centre, he explained that, as chloroquine is a “weak base” and so helps to neutralise acids, it makes the environment “less suitable” for the malaria parasite to live in when it diffuses into red blood cells.

While the mode of action against COVID-19 is not established, Prof May said, he pointed out that many viruses enter host cells via endocytosis, as a result of which they are initially taken up into an intracellular 'compartment that is "typically fairly acidic”.

"Chloroquine would alter the acidity of this compartment, which can interfere with the ability of viruses to escape into the host cell and start replicating.”

He continued: "Another possibility is that chloroquine may alter the ability of the virus to bind to the outside of a host cell in the first place,” adding that the drug "has subtle effects on a wide variety of immune cells…and it may be that one of these effects helps stimulate the body’s ability to fight off COVID-19.”

Crucially, the drug is also “cheap and relatively easy to manufacture” and so could easily be put into clinical trials and, eventually, treatment, May underlined.

A very simple retrospective analysis could be done to see if it has preventative or curative effects. The highest risk group, seniors, are also the group most likely to be taking the drug hydroxychloroquine for Lupus or or Rheumatoid Arthritis. Medicare and Medicaid has an Rx list of those under these programs who have been receiving this drug. The rerospective study would answer the question; “Is the incidence of CCP Coronavirus been reduced from the general population, especially in the Nation’s hot spots?” This study to date has not been undertaken.

Also, part of the rationale for not promoting this drug may be to assure that there was not a shortage. Hydroxychloroquine should be available for those already with an Rx for medical reasons. There is now more availability to use this drug for more than Lupus and Rhematoid Arthritis. For compassionate use an Rx is still needed by a physician. New York is not allowing it’s use for the CCP Coronavirus without going to an Emergency Room first!

Are certain states neglecting seniors by prohibiting appropriate use of Hydroxychloroquine? At least they finally reversed a “bad” decision by their Board of Pharmacy. (Read the entire article, please.) The following is selected excerpts only:

Malaria drug used to treat coronavirus patients at Oregon veterans home

After hearing that hydroxychloroquine could be effective, Dr. Rob Richardson began treating eight of the veterans with it and an antibiotic called azithromycin, also known as Z-Pak.

“I was using it to give them a fighting chance,” Richardson told The Associated Press in a telephone interview.

A doctor at the veterans home in Lebanon used a malaria drug to treat eight patients there for coronavirus, but said a state rule enacted last month would prevent him from treating any more veterans there.

The Oregon Board of Pharmacy had adopted a temporary emergency rule March 25 prohibiting the dispensing of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine “for presumptive treatment or prevention of COVID-19 infection.”

The board said it took the action to preserve supplies for treatment of malaria, inflammatory conditions, and documented COVID-19 infection in hospitalized patients.

But after pushback against the Oregon Board of Pharmacy’s March 25 rule, the board amended it on Wednesday to allow the drug to be used not only in hospitals for confirmed COVID-19 cases, but also long-term care facilities like the Edward C. Allworth Veterans’ Home.in the second week of March, the first cases of the coronavirusbegan emerging at the veterans home, when two men fell ill with COVID-19. Then more got sick.

Among those treated appears to be William Lapschies, one of the first two confirmed cases. Lapschies celebrated his 104th birthday Wednesday at the veterans home and doctors have declared him fully recovered, said his daughter, Carolee Brown of Lyons.

Malaria drug used to treat coronavirus patients at Oregon veterans home - oregonlive.com

This just came out…no evidence of benefit in severe cases: No evidence of rapid antiviral clearance or clinical benefit with the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in patients with severe COVID-19 infection - ScienceDirect

Are virus base or acid ?
.https://drsircus.com/general/viruses-are-ph-sensitive/ ;

…Now of course you’ll find the negative Nancy postings calling him a quack . Every doctor that went against the established Big Pharm gets labeled that.

The first person that questioned that maybe the body had electrical currents going through it was labeled a quack also. Nobody thinks that of a EKG now.

**A person can test themselves with test PH test strips bought on line, if, you want to see where your body is at.

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