SOME THOUGHTS ON THE JULY 15, 2025, AURYN QUARTERLY UPDATE
Being a huge fan of the âLassonde Curveâ, what this update did for me was solidify the fact that Auryn had indeed entered into the all-important âConstruction Phaseâ for their new mine complex. There should be no doubt in anybodyâs mind that this is going to be a MINE, and thatâs a very big deal for a variety of macro reasons pertaining to TODAYâS mining sector. As indicated in the âLassonde Curveâ, entering into the âConstruction Phaseâ represents the âsweet spotâ for investments in this sector. Why is this? Itâs because this sector can be most accurately characterized as investors (really speculators) assuming ULTRA-HIGH RISKS while seeking ULTRA-HIGH REWARDS.
The statistical odds for a junior mineral explorer/developer to accomplish what is necessary to advance a project into the âConstruction Phaseâ of the Lassonde Curve and then âProductionâ is about 1-in-1,000. It really, really, really is that RARE. Part of the significance, in the case of Auryn/Medinah, is passing the scrutiny of an institutional investor, capable of doing in-depth due diligence beyond anything we shareholders could ever dream of, and then agreeing to cut a $4 million check to fund the âConstruction Phaseâ under extremely generous terms i.e. a rate of âSOFR plus 4%â (about 8.33%), no payments due for 10-months, and a 5 year payback schedule. The terms of any mine financing tell a lot about the merits of the assets. In essence, the âSmart Moneyâ has spoken. In the junior explorer/developer sector, landing a debt financing with an institutional lender is really, really, really RARE. When really, really, really RARE events occur, we need to pay attention.
As far as the update goes, for me, the picture of the skeletal infrastructure for the new âwarehouseâ was very compelling as was the fact that theyâre pouring the concrete floor for the new FF plant. Landing a $4 million DEBT FINANCING with an institutional investor with extremely favorable terms had already confirmed in my mind this âConstruction Phaseâ reality, but it was nice to get a few more details.
In my experience, junior explorers pretty much NEVER qualify for a debt financing from an institutional investor. On my long checklist of items needing to be checked off on to confirm a new discovery of significance, I got to check off on the âcapital adequacyâ box, which I find to be crucial. In this phase of mine development, a lot of money can be spent in a hurry and there is going to be a sense of urgency because all 3 of the metals being mined by Auryn, gold, copper, and silver, are trading at or near all-time highs.
I no longer get too wrapped up on the exact timing for making certain accomplishments in this âConstruction Phaseâ of development. Iâm aware of how slow developments seem to be in this sector when working in Latin America. Iâm more interested in checking off on the next box coming up.
Aurynâs plan to put the CAREN MINE (Larrissa Adit) into production in the very near term, was a welcome surprise. They had successfully gained access to high-grade ore there several years ago. Then SERNAGEOMIN, the Chilean permitting authority, mandated the construction of I think it was 3 vertical ventilation/safety egress âraisesâ. âVertical miningâ is difficult. This seemed to put this project onto the back burner APPARENTLY ONLY TEMPORARILY, and since then all of the attention was focused on the DL2 Vein which already had 7 vertical ventilation raises and 5 ventilation chimneys in place that were constructed by the artisanal miners. That had to save Auryn upwards of perhaps $10 million and several years of work.
I was pleased to learn that the âtechnical planâ to expand the production capacity at Fortuna from 1,000 tonnes per month to 3,000 TPM had been completed. Both the northern aspect of the Merlin 4 Vein and the southern aspect of the Merlin 4 will add 1,000 tonnes per month EACH to the production profile. Opening up the Caren Mine (Larrissa Adit) will add another 1,000 TPM. Auryn expects to receive the Caren permit âin the coming weeksâ. Auryn mentioned that they will evaluate the feasibility of scaling up capacity at the Caren Mine based on âoperational data and performanceâ.
It appears that the plan at the Fortuna (DL2 Vein and Antonino Adit) is to put in an incline ramp going upwards from âLevel 3â at around 1,860 meters or so above sea level to âthe upper level historically referred to as Fortuna 1913â. âFortuna 1913â refers to the mining done at the 1,913 meters above sea level elevation within the âold worksâ.
This might allow Auryn to gain access to closer to surface âoxide oreâ. Management noted that: âIt is important to clarify that these extensions do not involve vertical mining or structural changes to the historic mining layout.â I interpret this to be that in this phase they will not be doing any SUB LEVEL STOPING which is a method of âvertical miningâ.
I mentioned in a previous post of the comments made by the former Head of Underground Operations at Yamana Goldâs (now Pan Am silverâs) gigantic El Penon Mine in Chile, Sr. de la Torre. He predicted that Aurynâs vein mining operations will end up being VERY SIMILAR to those at El Penon. At El Penon, they too are mining approximately 7 Main Veins contained within a âVein Setâ. After about 25 years of mining that deposit, you can see how the 7 Main Veins are now totally connected via many, many horizontal âcross-cutsâ. From this recent update, you can now sense Aurynâs project heading in that general direction. In recent updates you have read about the role of the Merlin 1 Vein, the Larrissa Vein, the Merlin 4 Vein, the DL2 Vein, etc.
Iâm going to guess that once the concrete floor of the FF plant is poured, theyâll be able to bring in the froth flotation âcellsâ, âbanks of cellsâ, and âcolumnsâ and possibly also the gyratory crusher and new ball mill which were delivered several months ago.
Management noted that the construction of the âTailings Storage Facilityâ or âTSFâ will start in September of 2025. This will be an environmentally friendly âdry stackâ facility. All in all, I sense a lot of progress being made on a lot of different fronts and I have no doubt whatsoever that Auryn has indeed entered, well-funded, into the âConstruction Phaseâ.
SO, WHATâS THE BIG DEAL ABOUT GOING INTO PRODUCTION AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME?
The significance has a lot to do with TIMING and some of the macro issues in play in the mining sector RIGHT NOW. What blows me away on this particular deal, is how fortuitous the TIMING is and how many stars have come into alignment:
We are at the phase of a bull market metals cycle in which the generalist investors are just now getting off of the couch and looking for miners that have yet to move upwards in share price. These investors probably realize that incremental gains in the price of gold tend to drop to the bottom line in this sector. THE UNIVERSE OF POTENTIAL INVESTORS IN THE JUNIORS IS COMING TO AN APEX AT THE VERY SAME TIME THAT AURYN/MEDINAH CAN NOW DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM THE OTHER 2,999 JUNIORS IN THIS SECTOR. Thatâs good timing.
The question for new investors becomes, are there any âabout to become junior producersâ that are out there whose share price has not yet moved yet BECAUSE EITHER NOBODY HAS EVER HEARD OF THEM OR THAT THEY HAVE SUCCESSFULLY DEFIED THE DISTANT ODDS AND ARE JUST NOW GOING INTO PRODUCTION.
Auryn/Medinah is about to produce EXTREMELY HIGH-GRADE GOLD, COPPER, and SILVER. ALL 3 of these metals just so happen to be trading at or near their all-time highs RIGHT NOW. That represents insanely good TIMING. âPolymetallicâ deposits are in extremely high demand. At the ADL, gold represents about 80% of the value of the metals.
Risk and reward are always in balance in every sector. The junior mining sector is characterized as consisting of speculators assuming ULTRA-HIGH RISK because only 1-in-1,000 junior explorers/developers ever make it all of the way into production. The junior mineral exploration sector has always featured ULTRA-HIGH REWARDS to balance out this ULTA-HIGH RISK. Itâs the potential â10-and 20-baggers" that probably attracted us SPECULATORS to this sector in the first place. We probably didnât realize, at the time, that the companies earning the â20-baggersâ had to dodge an awful lot of bullets. If you have successfully beat the 1-in-1,000 odds you have theoretically already earned a shot at the ULTRA-HIGH REWARDS. If you just so happen to have beat the odds when the price of the metals you are selling are trading at all-time highs, then that is a very good thing in regard to augmenting the size of those rewards.
Because of Maurizioâs willingness to act as a âbootstrapperâ, Auryn only has 70 million shares outstanding AND MOST OF THESE ARE SEMI-RESTRICTED FROM RESALE DUE TO RULE 144. The potential EARNINGS PER SHARE, if, if, if Auryn can successfully get into high-grade production, are significant.
Wait for management to confirm this, but IMO Aurynâs ALL IN SUSTAINING COST (AISC) is likely to come in at around $800 per ounce of gold equivalent produced. With the price of gold at $3,300-plus, this means that Auryn could be in a position to have âMARGINAL PROFITS PER OUNCEâ well over $2,000 per ounce. From an historical point of view, this represents uncharted waters for this industry.
Extremely high-grade ore producers (like Auryn), almost by definition, have extremely low AISCâs per ounce produced. Junior producers with their own on-site ore processing facilities (gyratory crushers, ball mills, and froth flotation plants) also have extremely low AISCs INDEPENDENT OF THE GRADE. Junior producers with BOTH extremely high-grade ore and their own on-site ore processing facilities, will have EXTREMELY LOW AISCs. This translates into them having EXTREMELY HIGH MARGINAL PROFITS per ounce produced. (price of gold minus AISC).
Junior producers that have already successfully conquered the 1-in-1,000 odds of becoming a junior producer (which typically leads to ULTRA-HIGH REWARDS) that just so happen to have EXTREMELY HIGH MARGINAL PROFITS per ounce produced due to EXTREMELY LOW AISCs, and that also just so happen to have an EXTREMELY LOW NUMBER OF SHARES OUTSTANDING (due to âbootstrappingâ), have the potential to generate EARNINGS PER SHARE figures that are exceptional. This is especially true if the 3 metals they are producing are ALL TRADING AT OR NEAR ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE LEVELS.
Share prices in any sector, tend to trade at industry-standard âmultiplesâ of EARNINGS PER SHARE or âEPSâ. In mining, the average âmultipleâ is 31.1. Half of the companies in the sector will tend to trade at a âmultipleâ above this average and half below. Junior producers can generate very high âPRODUCTION GROWTH PROFILESâ through time, especially when they first go into production. These companies tend to get awarded higher than average âmultiplesâ because of their superior âPEG RATIOSâ. A âPEG RATIOâ adds the PRODUCTION GROWTH factor to the standard EPS ratio. The major miners typically cannot generate dynamic âPRODUCTION GROWTH PROFILESâ. Their production levels tend to plateau out with time unless they âacquireâ new ounces of production through M and A activities. When the price of gold is breaking out to the upside, the level of M and A activity always accelerates partly because the âcurrencyâ of the majors (their share priceâ is extremely high and therefore acquisitions are less dilutive to their share structure.
Maurizio and the Auryn Board of Directors had the foresight to mine and deliver to the area of the ore processing facility, 20,000 tonnes of extremely high-grade ore prior to the commissioning of the new facility. One could argue that Auryn has actually been IN PRODUCTION for the last 2 to 3 years. They havenât sold that which they produced because if they âfroth floatâ that which they are producing, they will make a lot more money than if they simply sold raw ore. Much of this ore was mined with percussion hammers (without blasting) so as to avoid âdilutionâ of the grade of the ore within the vein proper by avoiding mining the less well mineralized wall rock surrounding the vein. This stockpiling program will help ensure that the ore processing facility will be kept busy at a time in which the metals prices are extremely high.
Currently, the 3,000 junior explorers/developers active in this sector are having a very difficult time in getting funded. As a result, very few new mineral discoveries have been made, let alone put into production. The âSUPPLYâ of junior explorers with promising mineral prospects is currently de minimis. The problem for the majors and mid-tier miners is that they have to replace the ounces they mine annually by either drilling out or purchasing more ounces of production from others.
Recently, Auryn qualified for a rare (for the juniors) $4 million âdebt financingâ with an institutional investor at very favorable terms including an interest rate of âSOFRâ plus 4%â, spread out over 5 years with no payments due in the first 10-months. Itâs important to study the terms of any financing in this sector. The terms will tell you a lot about the merits of the deposit. It is not clear if this institution can be relied upon for further financings, if needed, to ramp up the production profile in a quicker manner, so as to take advantage of the high metalsâ prices. If Auryn was looked upon as being a favorable RISK prior to their having their own ore processing facility, then I would imagine now they would be an even lower RISK to any financier.
In regard to Aurynâs shares, there are two âbragging pointsâ that Auryn has. The first is the incredibly low number of âshares outstandingâ i.e. 70 million. This could easily be 700 million if Auryn fully drilled out their 7 Main Veins. An extremely low number of shares âO/Sâ means that the share price will tend to hyper-react to any given level of buying because the âsupplyâ of shares is so low.
Of equal importance is the âSHARE OWNERSHIP STRUCTUREâ. When management owns 62% of the shares in a semi-restricted fashion due to Rule 144, management has to file a Form 144 pre-warning investors that management is contemplating selling some shares. The amount they can sell per quarter follows a formula. The financial incentives of management and the average shareholder are much more tightly aligned when management is by far and away the largest shareholder. We saw this with Maurizioâs willingness to âbootstrapâ the corporation. When management was cutting checks right and left, the âCOST OF CAPITALâ for Auryn was zero. So too was the âDILUTION RATEâ associated with raising capital. In the last 7 years, all 28 quarterly filings of Auryn had the same figure in the âNUMBER OF SHARES OUTSTANDINGâ line-item entry. It was 70 million shares each and every time. Maurizio all but promised this many years ago at that âinformational meetingâ, promises made promises kept.
The minimizing of share structure dilution due to âbootstrappingâ lasts for the entire lifetime of the corporation. The worst part of investing in the junior miners is that they do nothing but spend money EARLY ON WHEN THE SHARE PRICE IS LOW. This is because they never (hardly ever) qualify for debt financings. The ULTRA-HIGH-RISK nature of this sector results in willing financiers DEMANDING steep discounts to the prevailing share price levels. This is partly because any shares being sold out of the Treasury have to be âRESTRICTEDâ for a certain period of time. Nobody is going to pay retail prices for RESTRICTED SHARES. This reality induces âhyper-dilutionâ of the share structure of junior explorers that donât have a willing âbootstrapperâ like Maurizio.
Maurizio has the RIGHT to be paid back once the profits start flowing. If you own 62% of the shares and the profits start flowing, early on you would also have the OPTION to put those profits back into the company and ramp up production that much quicker which might make that 62% share ownership worth 5-times the amount management was owed in the first place. What do you think that somebody like Maurizio might opt for if the purchase of a âjumbo drill rigâ might have so much âMECHANIZATION LEVERAGEâ associated with it that the increase in the value of his shareholdings from the enhanced production levels might dwarf the amount he was entitled to be paid back?
After going into production, it is Aurynâs stated intention to become fully-reporting to the SEC and seek a higher listing on a superior trading venue. This could open the door to institutional investors, many of which cannot buy shares in a âPinkSheetâ company, opting to invest in the company.
Yet another example of fortuitous timing for Auryn has to do with what is going on in the smelter industry worldwide. A froth flotation ore processing facility produces what is known as an ultra-high grade âfloat concentrateâ. The next step in the ore purification process is nearly always âsmeltingâ. Historically, the charges for smelting averaged in between $85 and $100 per tonne smelted. China recently built many, many billions of dollars worth of smelting facilities that they canât keep busy. There is a worldwide lack of supply of âfloat concentratesâ, which is exactly what Auryn will be producing. Worldwide smelting fees have dropped down to the $10 to $20 per tonne range and some smelters are actually PAYING THE PRODUCERS OF âFLOAT ONCENTRATESâ for the right to smelt their ore i.e. ânegative smelting ratesâ. This is because it is extremely expensive to mothball a smelter and lay off all of the workers. This phenomenon drives down the ALL IN SUSTAINING COSTS (AISCs) to produce an ounce of gold EVEN FURTHER. China has been approaching the producers of âfloat concentratesâ in South America and West Africa offering them EXTREMELY GENEROUS long term âofftake agreementsâ in exchange for commitments to allow them âexclusivityâ to smelt a producerâs âfloat concentrateâ. This supply-demand imbalance in regard to float concentrates and smelting capacity is expected to get even worse in the next couple of years. Yet again, the TIMING seems to be somewhat fortuitous for Auryn.
What is critical for Auryn right now is to continue to keep their nose to the grindstone and show progress on their mine plan. For investors without a lot of familiarity with the mining sector, itâs tough to recognize PROGRESS as it occurs. If you donât know the individual steps needing to be checked off on, itâs pretty tough to keep a list and check off on it as PROGRESS is made. Sometimes itâs a good idea to review the various boxes that have been checked off on over the last 20 or so years.
When the cash starts flowing then the VISIBILITY will be greatly enhanced. Everybody knows how to speak EARNINGS PER SHARE whereas not many have much familiarity with the âsweet spotâ on the âLassonde Curveâ being entering into the âConstruction Phaseâ.