Hochschild abandoned their deal with another company, Skeena, back in 2023 - they stated they were focusing capital on more “advanced-stage” projects elsewhere in their portfolio. NOTE TO FILE: The ADL was not an advanced-stage project back in 2023.
But, that doesn’t explain why you first said above that there is ZERO chance Auryn would ever get a JV, and then you said “if they were able to enter a JV …..”
I wish I could talk out both sides of my mouth like that - I think you’re talented!
And there are just as many MORE!
I have a sneaky suspicion MC is enjoying putting his toys together, the kind that are gonna make him a bunch of shekels.
Thank you, MC, for posting these pictures and keeping us informed - we’re excited too!
Hey John, can you help me with my math? 60k tons, 10gpt, 31.1 g/oz, 90% recovery rate, $2,000 AISC.
Everytime I run the formula it comes up with a ridiculously high number? What am I doing wrong?
Thanks
That’s your rebuttal? Maybe instead of zero I need to clarify with “infinitesimally low” but that’s an awfully big word, and hard to spell correctly. In the case of dividends and JVs that would be an appropriate descriptor and protect me from claims of being schizophrenic. So, if it makes you feel better there is a minutely small chance of a JV and if one is landed the terms will be so punitive you will have wished it didn’t happen. Hope that helps.
Everything. You are making an assumption in grades on a pile of dirt you know nothing about. If it’s averaging 10gpt that would be great. But you nor anybody else has any idea how that translates into a return on your investment. There’s a reason why the market isn’t assigning any value but, if you feel like you have an edge, this is an amazing opportunity to buy shares. What’s amazing to me is that there is so much confidence oozing on this board but nobody putting there “money where their mouth is.” Nobody taking 10 to 1 odds on low bar outcomes. No volume, anemic share price. Pretty sad to witness.
IF a big IF they do something with the MDMN shares then that will change until they are still building the basement but it is also great progress can’t take that away from MC
Pretty pathetic answer.
60k tons. They’ve stated to expect a head grade of 10gpt. That is a conservative estimate. The $2k AISC that I used is also conservative.
Are you suggesting the 60k tons has any chance of averaging <5gpt?
Let’s do the math at 5gpt.
60k tons × 5 gpt = 300k grams
300k grams ÷ 31.1 g/oz = 9,650 oz
9,650 oz x 90% recovery rate = 8,685 oz
8,685 x $2,200 oz ($4,200 gold - $2,000 AISC)= $19.1M
$19M wipes out the MC loan, the $4M plant loan, and leaves FCF left over.
No debt, 70M shares outstanding, onsite plant, money in the bank.
How’s them apples?
Not quite as pathetic at these attempts to assign value to a pile of dirt made by individuals who clearly have zero knowledge of investing in mining projects. Anybody can whip out a calculator and come up with some “neat” outcomes. I have no idea what the grade is but keep in mid that they had to mine A LOT of barren rock before they found the vein (for a third time). It’s not like they have 60k tonnes (if you can even believe that number) that has been accumulated while mining the actual vein.
One could argue that it’s a lot more pathetic that certain folks have been fixated, for years, on the hidden value of this pile of dirt while the market is clearly not convinced. Nor are the debt financiers who are requiring extremely expensive terms (from what little we know). If the pile of dirt represented real collateral AUMC would have been able to land real debt financing that didn’t take years to land. The $4M is the principle amount. Did you forget about the other $20M??
All of this being said, the calculator wizards on this board might have a shred of credibility if they were backing their unwavering conviction with actual buying of shares in AUMC. Are you guys in such financial distress that nobody can add to this “screaming buy.”
MC is doing a great job in finally advancing this project to a point where some actual numbers can be vetted. Be happy with the small wins without getting sucked into the dividend, WCD, etc crazy talk. AND buy some fricking shares of you think the market has it so wrong.
Did you? Its a service contract. That’s part of the cost of operating the mine. Its part of the AISC.
You would hope BE knows that - but I guess he does not - either that or he’s intentionally trying to obfuscate.
Here’s a LINK for anybody who might be interested (hint, hint) - and it’s from somebody who actually KNOWS something about mining (hint, hint again):
Clearly MC’s not focused on the stock price right now. There’s no liquidity or promotion going on. Yes anyone can run figures through a calculator but these figures are not made up from thin air. They have stated 60k tons, they have stated to expect 10gpt head grade. We know there’s a lot of much higher grade ore mixed in with the lower grade wall rock. 5gpt is pretty conservative when considering they are expecting 10gpt average and alot of it was targeted using jack legs. Nobody knows for certain what the pile will average but even at 2.5gpt there’s enough to make a big splash next year while preserving the 70M share structure. The downsides have been well documented by you, but the upsides are beginning to materialize. I happen to agree with your downside summary of the last decade of bootstrapping. Its pretty self explanatory. Anyone who argues is in denial. BB always paints too rosy of a picture but your negative bias surely prevents you from agreeing with the obvious here. You lose credibility when you do that.
Even you flagged this suspicious nature of this transaction which, was so shady, that they actually modified the terms (or really just the language) to make them even more opaque. In Decemeber of 2024 they ammended the deal to:
“Auryn Mining Corporation (OTC: AUMC) announces that its wholly owned Chilean subsidiary, Auryn Mining Chile SpA, has amended its previous financing arrangement with Strategic Investments S.A.C. into a single, integrated agreement. The entire funding is now structured as a $4 million loan at an interest rate of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (“SOFR”) plus 400 basis points, fully replacing the former loan-and-equity structure. In addition, Auryn Mining Chile SpA has entered into a comprehensive services agreement worth up to $20 million over five years with Ameco Chile SpA, an affiliate of Strategic Investments S.A.C.”
So you believe that the 5 year $20M service agreement" that is directly tied to the $4M loan is going to be just a normal cost of mining? Just part of the AISC? There are a lot of desperately naive folks around here but nobody is buying that. The loan was made to secure the $20M (where Ameco is making the REAL money).
Remember the origninal deal:
• Equity Financing: Additionally, up to $3million will be provided through an equity investment arrangement, which includes a preferred dividend mechanism with dividends capped at $20 million over five years.
They simply switched the $20M in preferred dividends over 5 years with a 5 year “Services Agreeement.” Or maybe that’s just a wild coicidence!!
Jimmy I expect the blind ignorance on glaringly obvious points (like this insanely expesnive debt financing disguised as a service agreement) from the likes of BB and Bubba. They’ve been stuck in this disaster so long that they have no choice but, Et tu, Jimmy? Say it isn’t so.
Again, I’m not blaming Maurizio for taking whatever financing he could land. He was not able to sell shares and was no longer interested in personally bankrollng the projects. These types of extremely “rich” deals are to be expected for hyper risky (no resource) projects.
As for your wild speculation on the value of the stockpile, I look forward to the discussion once they are finally able to start processing. It will be fun. The seemingly obvious points I’m trying to make: if you assumptions on the dirt were anywhere near reality, AUMC would not have been forced into a financing deal of this nature.
Yes, Ameco is running the operation. If they’re to earn $20M in 5 years, we will have earned 5x that at a minimum is what I suspect. Even Wizard posted to suggest that we would earn multiples of that.
Wrap it into the AISC. You cant operate a mine without costs. They chose to to use the services of a reputable outfit. I would think there’s significant labor costs in that figure. That is by definition AISC.
Yes I did scream and yell about the original agreement being shady because the terms were unclear and it was an equity arrangement, even if by language. However, knowing that these guys are experts and $20M is spread over 5 years, it seems reasonable given we should expect to have net income of $20M+ annually. So $4M annually for them to net us $20M+ (5x) is reasonable. I’m not happy that this agreement is not more transparent by any stretch, but there is comfort in knowing that a reputable company is pulling the strings.
Sorry Bubba;
"JV agreement in the future for the PDN property, but they ALREADY have done so in the past with respect to the LDM. Ever heard of Hochschild? "
Hoch just realized they were dealing with amateurs, so why not make a contract … During the 3 or so years, IMP all they contributed was "Medinah you have to drill at no cost to us "
Hopefully current Auryn management is WAY more intelligent than previous MDMN . The whole Hoch agreement was just a scam to prop up the price while the management sold shares, pretty much like Trump … PUMP & DUMP … thanks suckers .. please keep sending me money … as long as the price rises you will be able to make money … of course until the time that the ‘suckers’ realize they have been HAD. At which time all the speculators bail. You are left with LESS or WAY LESS!!!
Agreed.
Auryn Mining has a single integrated agreement with Strategic Investments SAC for the $4M Loan and a standard interest rate. NOTE: This single integrated agreement replaces the previous loan & equity structure. And it ensures that all commitments on both sides are clearly specified and documented to prevent future disputes.
The ‘comprehensive services agreement’ with Ameco is worth UP TO $20M over five years. Ameco is a separate entity that is affiliated with Strategic Investments. Ameco’s services will include a “range of engineering and management services for the Fortuna de Lampa project,” according to the same update:
Reviewing and optimizing mine plans and water management
** Developing construction and operating budgets
** Conducting training programs to maximize local labor involvement
** Recommending and implementing social programs for community engagement
** Supervising construction and mining activities to ensure environmental compliance
** Leasing mining equipment required for project operations
Considering all of those services provided, do ppl really think up-to $4M/year is too high?
Although Ameco is an ‘affiliate’ of S.A.C., it is a relationship between the two separate entities who differ in contract requirements within the industry. They have separate contracts:
Single Integrated Agreement (Strategic Investments)
Comprehensive Services Agreement (AMECO)
NOTE: The following quote is not from the same December update. While correct that it was the “original deal”, it no longer has any relevance.
That former deal is now a moot point. I don’t understand why it was quoted since it likely causes more confusion making it appear to fit the narrative.
INSTEAD, THE DECEMBER 2024 UPDATE SPECIFIES:
“The entire funding is now structured as a $4 million loan at an interest rate of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (“SOFR”) plus 400 basis points, fully replacing the former loan-and-equity structure.”
“Auryn Mining Chile SpA will receive a $4 million loan at SOFR + 400 basis points. This supersedes the previous arrangement that included a smaller loan plus equity financing.”
Haha, we’re sitting here bickering about whether this company will be successful, and gold is up to 42.30 per ounce and silver is up to 57.93. The pundits are saying there’s LOTS more room to run too, especially silver. At this rate, even if the 28,000-tonne pile averages only 5% gold (and equivalents), we’ll still make a killing!
Oh, I forgot, Chicken Little said the sky is falling - all for our own good.
It was quoted to emphasize the point that they simply decided to replace a 5 year dividend with a 5 year services agreement, over a 90 day period. Its pretty clear that this move was simply to improve the “optics.” This being said, I’m in 100% agreement that AUMC needed to team up with a mining contractor and $4M a year (if that is all that it costs) may turn out to be reasonable. The tough thing will be determining if that payment is just fluff to pad the economics of the debt financing or costs related to actual work being done. This is definitetly a well known company but that doesn’t mean they aren’t equally well known for penning extremely lucrative deals, for themselves. There’s really no way to make any determination based on the limited knowledge that has been shared. If past is precedent, the more skeptical leanings have proven to be a lot more accurate (even since Maurizio took over). Lot’s of fun stuff to be uncovered once they finally get this thing commissioned and into production (assuming they start to offer real disclosure/details).
Imagine if Bubbles took Chicken Little’s advice 2, 5 or 10 years ago, sold his positions here, invested in a “normal” PM play and was now able to buy a position that is 5-10x larger than what he currently owns? I’m stil amazed that nobody is buying shares given the “killing” to be made.
Imagine if Bubbles averaged down and his cost basis is now much less than 1 cent per share.
Sumpin’s happenin’ here…
What it is…
Is becoming damn clear…
– madmen
