It appears to be a massive outbreak in the Seattle area and it was apparently spreading full bore undetected for 6 weeks due to the narrow testing criteria that only tested people from China (Likely several thousands.) They can now test about 400 per day now in Washington St. so the results will all be coming out shortly. Could be a really ugly week in the markets again. Perhaps the worst will be over for Gold?
The risks to individuals having their health adversely affected in the US are actually very low. Much of the media are creating panic by sensationalizing the perception of the health risk to individuals living in the US. The global economic risks are much greater and likely to persist.
There is so much we don’t know and are learning about this virus. Incidence of flu is only estimated from those getting medical attention. What’s the baseline incidence of the flu on average? Is it 10-15% or 20% of the total population? It varies each year.
Now consider this virus is more related to the common cold than the flu. What’s the incidence of the common cold each year? Do we even track or estimate the incidence of a cold in our population? Why not? – It is because the common cold is not generally lethal or require hospitalization. It is estimated Adults have an average of 2 or 3 colds per year.
Now what if the incidence of this Covid19 virus is similar to the common cold? We have to track this new virus because it is serious to a portion of the affected population and has an associated mortality rate. Huge worldwide populations may be affected. Statistically many deaths will result. We are lacking data for an accurate estimate but do know the virus is highly transmissible. What are all the possible vectors of transmission? We know that it is primarily an airborne mode of transmission, but there are others.
Covid19 is definitely impacting a growing list of global concerns. The one immediately greatest impact was witnessed this past week. Between margin calls, the widespread positions in ETFs and Funds and the use of options it is no wonder the algorithms took over the trades. Puts on the $SPX and other Indexes put the final knife in the majority of positions being held by individual investors.
Again I would recommend reviewing the repost of “Crikey” subtitled “Things That Make You go Hmmm…” for a better understanding of what has been happening. Looking back on history puts things in a different perspective. The psychology moving the markets is much the same, even though the differences in particular forces are different. At least that’s my perspective of where things are at with PMs and what investors may be in for short and longer term.
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I see this now repeatedly. News stories misrepresenting the critical R0 parameter. In your example, they actually show SARS as being more contiguous than COVID-19 which is utter nonsense.
It appears to be problem of comparing apples to oranges.
R0 varies over time and location for a number of reasons. In this case, R0 was measured in the 6 to 7 range*(per a research paper) similar to that of small pox (but not as bad as measles) during the early outbreak period in Wuhan prior to the quarantine. After the quarantine, the R0 dropped drastically and appears to be source of the more commonly quoted lower number. For purposes of comparison, the higher number seems more appropriate especially in light of the devastating rate/easy of spread seen in Iran, S. Korean, Italy and other countries not to mention the Princess cruise ship.(HIV is one possible example but how it is transmitted limits it’s target humans compared to COVID-19)
The is indeed a black swam event. Never have we had such a serious diseases that is so highly contiguous that stealthy pretends to be the flu until it is already out of control with a backkdrop of our rapid transportation system that speedily delivers the virus to all parts of the globe. Furthermore, our economy has so much further to fall compared to the economies of years gone by that were ravished by the plagues of old.
It is going to get a lot uglier before it gets better. After studying the matter, I do think things will subside for a time for this summer as transmission of the virus from contaminated surfaces will be low do to heat/UV light although direct person to person spread with still exist. So guessing, R0 drops to say 0.8 people per person infected.(Below 1 means contraction.) The contraction of the virus will be short lived however partially due to the fact that it takes so long for the virus to run its course in an individual, the virus building up in the cooler climate zones and the return to cooler weather by September.
FYI…it wasn’t a coincidence that the virus so easily spread in Wuhan. It appears cloudy, cool stagnant conditions with little UV light are perfect for transmission. I think the spread in N. Italy, S. Korea, Germany, Northern Iran, Seattle etc were all experiencing these kinds of weather conditions. Expecting locally here Michigan for the conditions to warm into the ideal range presently so wouldn’t be surprised to see some localized outbreaks. Next Fall/2021 are really going to be unplesant.
Gold is back up to 1605…nice!
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Technical terms are sometimes very confusing. One should be careful not to confuse mortality rate (which is very low with COVID19) to incidence rate in a population. Mike is quite correct when he says:
The incidence rate in the next year will likely be less than the common cold but the incidence of deaths will be much higher and may be as high or higher than deaths from the flu.
Incidence extrapolations for USA for Common cold: 62,000,000 per year, 5,166,666 per month, 1,192,307 per week, 169,863 per day, 7,077 per hour, 117 per minute, 1 per second. Note: this extrapolation calculation uses the incidence statistic: 62 million cases (NIAID); 23.6 per 100 (NHIS96); estimated 1 billion colds in the USA annually; Children get 6-10 yearly, adults 2-4 yearly; over 60’s less than 1 a year.
Healthgrades Health Library
This will be quite alarming given the level of global economic news coverage blamed on COVID-19 which is only the catalyst initiating the event. Do not underestimate how this will effect world economy.
The U.S. has had a bad flu season this year. The hospitalization rate has been about 25 people per 100,000 infected. COVID-19 has a rate closer to 25,000 per 100,000 infected…i.e as much as 1000 times more severe.
Unlike the flu, nobody is immune and nobody is vaccinated. COVID-19 spreads easier than the flu.
60% of the world’s population will come down with it in the next 2 years is the mostly widely used projection.
One fun fact. Most will get the mild form. However, even with the mild form (or walking pneumonia variety of the severe form) one’s runs the risk of getting viral myocarditis. This condition causes inflammation of the heart muscle. If you over exert yourself, you may simply fall over dead with a heart attack. If you have seen the dozens of video’s of people falling over dead in the streets of China, Iran etc.; this is what is happening to them.
So in 2020/2021, stay home if you have a cold and get some rest!
Note: Speculation that the central banks are stepping in may boost stocks for a bit but doubt it will make much difference. It is not simply a matter of the need to build confidence in the markets with plunging future profits looming.
67 countries now have confirmed cases.
Leaders telling people to wash their hands will not get us out of this mess. Speed is everything when dealing with exponential growth. Plotting along in a linear fashion won’t cut it.
Probably the best article I have seen summarizing where things stand now: Forget about mortality rate, this is why you should be worried about coronavirus | by Adam Wren | Medium
Just a quick review this morning from first hand accounts of what is going on in the various virus hot spots around world; situation is getting worse even quicker than expected.
Iran now appears to be as badly damaged as China but only doing a fraction of what is necessary to get it under control. Body bags are stacked up hospitals just like the early days of Wuhan. They don’t seem to have incinerators in Iran so massive graves sites are being dug.
S. Korea looks bad but they might actually be able to get it under control there since they are being so diligent about the testing process.
Italy must be vastly under reporting the true scope of the outbreak as they have exported a ridiculous number of cases to other countries.
N. Korea is telling all diplomats in the country to get out quickly so probably really bad there.
Thailand is simply calling it pneumonia; likely out of control there.
Can’t get a good feel on whether China is in control or not since it well documented that the true numbers are at least a factor of ten higher. In any case, business remains extremely curtailed based on check of traffic maps vs normal traffic levels.
The response in the U.S. so far has been so awful it is nauseating. The CDC now is hiding information including the number of those tested, generally testing itself still remains limited to basically only those that are nearly dead hiding the true scope of the number of infected, PPE equipment/procedures for medical workers and first responders is that of a third world nation, follow-up of those that might be infected is days behind or not happening at all, I could go on and on. Anyway, regarding the markets; Seattle is going to be SEVERELY impacted by the virus in the short term. Scenes that come out of Seattle will probably frighten a lot of people. Here is a chart that compares number of deaths vs number of cases reported at that point in time from various parts of the world. It shows that the U.S. has drastically unreported cases. Note that for the China examples, they only include cases that both tested positive plus have pneumonia. 
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Regarding testing:
People in Washington State currently only being tested if they have #COVIDー19 symptoms and:
- close contact w/ lab confirmed case
or - history of travel from affected area w/in 14 days
or - severe symptoms (pneumonia/ARDS) and are hospitalized.
There lies the problem. It is already known that there is widespread community transmission with no travel history. Generally a person wouldn’t know if they have had contact with a confirmed cases unless a local agency conducts a trace.(When it is being done at all, it days after the fact.) And if you have severe symptoms and already almost dead, isn’t that basically too late and you have already spread it to everyone already? Not to mention that perhaps almost half have no symptoms suggestive of pneumonia at all.(but still capable of spreading it-example of Japanese cruise ship…58% of those tested positive were asymptomatic carriers.)
Testing is suppose to be done in a way to prevent the problem from spreading; not in a kind of postmortem sort of way to count the dead!
Looks like the rate cut did little for the markets but sure helped gold!
EDIT: WHO has just increased the global death rate estimate for the virus to 3.4% of those infected. As a comparison, the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed 50 million worldwide (population 1.9 billion at that time) had a death rate of ~2.5%, whereas the regular seasonal flu is ~0.1%
Analysis of genetic sequences of viruses from #Covid19 cases in the Seattle area suggest the virus has likely been transmitting there for about 6 weeks. That effectively puts Seattle where Wuhan was on Jan. 1 — three weeks from an explosion of cases.
EDIT: Due to a very loud outcry from health experts all over the U.S, the CDC has finally issued new guidance saying any American can be tested for coronavirus if deemed necessary per doctor’s orders.
EDIT: Japan - Expert: “…it has now become clear that infections are quietly spreading through people with mild symptoms and active economic and social activities.”
Saw this morning: “30 to 40% of the citizens of Tehran (8.7M population), will be infected with #COVID19 by 20 March 2020,” says Masoud Madani, an expert in infectious diseases, to the Iran Newspaper on the coronavirus outbreak in the capital."
However, to keep things in perspective; I saw some interesting numbers on China. Thus far at least, due to a predicated drastic drop in traffic accidents in China plus lives being saved by the current amazing air quality over China(which kills more than 1 million per year there) has saved many thousands of lives vs those lost to the virus. This when only accounting for acute air pollution exposure and the associated increase in strokes.
I have attached a rather fascinating map provided by the Health Ministry in Iran showing the virus spread through the country starting out in the City of Qom due to a concentration of Chinese located there.
EDIT: Did we just lose France? President Macron says the “coronavirus epidemic is unstoppable in France,” after a meeting with researchers at the Elysee.
Blows my mind how ill prepared the US is for the virus. Lack of testing kits is criminal in my mind.Here in Canada sporting events and conferences are getting cancelled left and right. Less talk and more action is needed, but truth be told, they’ve lost control of it. IMO
No worries. It is only a matter of time before the infected hordes in the U.S. cross over the border looking to escape quarantine and infect Canada! 
Numbers infected in Iran may be under counting by a factor of 250 X.
There is a report that a Sudbury man went to the PDAC mining convention in Toronto and then test’s positive for the virus upon his return. There were 25,000 people there. Sudbury man who attended Toronto conference has COVID-19: health officials | CP24.com
Meantime, testing in the U.S. is still not happening to any meaningful degree. Yet more problems now. Generally have enough test kits but now shortage of the RNA extraction kits that must be used to extract the RNA from the samples prior to deploying the test kits. Also shortage in the capacity of the necessary proper lab equipment and staff to run the tests. Near complete meltdown/crisis situation for testing. Exclusive: U.S. coronavirus testing threatened by shortage of critical lab materials - POLITICO
WHO declared pandemic officially today. This should have been apparent to everyone well before this announcement. Things are sure to deteriorate globally even further before it gets better. Avoid spreading fear, stay calm, take precautions and avoid anger. Stay safe everyone.
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WHO’s comment " by alarming level of inaction"
History sometimes repeats itself. This flue mutated at least #3 times before it went away all together. 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic
Spanish influenza killed 5% of the world’s population
By
Updated December 05, 2019
Every year, H1N1 flu viruses make people sick. Even the garden-variety flu may kill people, but usually only the very young or the very old. In 1918, the flu mutated into something much more virulent.
This new, deadlier flu acted very strangely; it seemed to target the young and healthy, being particularly deadly to 20- to 35-year-olds. In three waves from March 1918 to the Spring of 1919, this deadly flu pandemic spread quickly around the world, infecting hundreds of millions of people and killing 50 million to 100 million (upwards of 5% of the world’s population.)
Vaccines had not been developed yet, so the only methods of fighting the pandemic were quarantine, good hygiene practices, disinfectants and limiting public gatherings.
This flu went by many names, including Spanish flu, grippe, Spanish Lady, the three-day fever, purulent bronchitis, sandfly fever, and Blitz Katarrh.
First Reported Spanish Flu Cases
No one is quite sure where the Spanish flu first struck. Some researchers have pointed to origins in China, while others have traced it back to a small town in Kansas. The best recorded first case occurred in Fort Riley.
Fort Riley was a military outpost in Kansas where new recruits were trained before being sent to Europe to fight in World War I.
On March 11, 1918, Private Albert Gitchell, a company cook, came down with symptoms that at first appeared to be a bad cold. Gitchell went to the infirmary and was isolated. Within an hour, several additional soldiers had come down with the same symptoms and were also isolated.
Despite the attempt to isolate those with symptoms, this extremely contagious flu quickly spread through Fort Riley. After five weeks, 1,127 soldiers at Fort Riley had been stricken with the Spanish flu, and 46 of them had died.
Flu Spreads and Gets a Name
Soon, reports of the same flu were noted in other military camps around the United States. Shortly thereafter, the flu infected soldiers on board transport ships. Although it was unintended, American troops brought this new flu with them to Europe.
Beginning in mid-May, the flu started to strike French soldiers as well. The flu traveled across Europe, infecting people in nearly every country.
When the flu rampaged through Spain, the Spanish government publicly announced the epidemic. Spain was the first country that was not involved in World War I to be struck by the flu; thus, it was the first country not to censor their health reports. Since most people first heard about the flu from its attack on Spain, the new flu was named the Spanish flu.
The Spanish flu then spread to Russia, India, China, and Africa. By the end of July 1918, after having infected people all around the world, this first wave of the Spanish flu appeared to be dying out.
Flu Becomes Incredibly Deadly
While the first wave of the Spanish flu had been extremely contagious, the second wave of the Spanish flu was both contagious and exceedingly deadly.
In late August 1918, the second wave of the Spanish flu struck three port cities at nearly the same time. These cities (Boston, United States; Brest, France; and Freetown, Sierra Leone) all felt the lethalness of this new mutation immediately.
Hospitals quickly became overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of patients. When hospitals filled up, tent hospitals were erected on lawns. Nurses and doctors were already in short supply because so many of them had gone to Europe to help with the war effort.
Desperately needing help, hospitals asked for volunteers. Knowing they were risking their own lives by helping these contagious victims, many people, especially women, signed up anyway to help as best they could.
Symptoms of Spanish Flu
The victims of the 1918 Spanish flu suffered greatly. Within hours of feeling the first symptoms of extreme fatigue, fever, and headache, victims would start turning blue. Sometimes the blue color became so pronounced that it was difficult to determine a patient’s original skin color.
The patients would cough with such force that some even tore their abdominal muscles. Foamy blood exited from their mouths and noses. A few bled from their ears. Some vomited; others became incontinent.
The Spanish flu struck so suddenly and severely that many of its victims died within hours of coming down with their first symptom. Some died a day or two after realizing they were sick.
Taking Precautions
Not surprisingly, the severity of the Spanish flu was alarming. People around the world worried about getting it. Some cities ordered everyone to wear masks. Spitting and coughing in public was prohibited. Schools and theaters were closed.
People also tried their own homemade prevention remedies, such as eating raw onions, keeping a potato in their pocket, or wearing a bag of camphor around their neck. None of these things stemmed the onslaught of the Spanish flu’s deadly second wave.
Piles of Dead Bodies
The number of bodies from the victims of the Spanish flu quickly outnumbered the available resources to deal with them. Morgues were forced to stack bodies like cordwood in the corridors.
There weren’t enough coffins for all the bodies, nor were there enough people to dig individual graves. In many places, mass graves were dug to free the towns and cities of the masses of rotting corpses.
Spanish Flu Children’s Rhyme
When the Spanish flu killed millions of people around the world, it affected everyone. While the adults walked around wearing masks, children skipped rope to this rhyme:
I had a little bird
Its name was Enza
I opened a window
And In-flu-enza.
Armistice Brings Third Wave
On November 11, 1918, an armistice brought an end to World War I. People around the world celebrated the end of this “total war” and felt jubilant that perhaps they were free from the deaths caused by both war and flu. However, as people hit the streets and gave kisses and hugs to returning soldiers, they also started a third wave of the Spanish flu.
The third wave of the Spanish flu was not as deadly as the second, but still deadlier than the first. Although this third wave also went around the world, killing many of its victims, it received much less attention. People were ready to start their lives over again after the war; they were no longer interested in hearing about or fearing a deadly flu.
Gone but Not Forgotten
The third wave lingered. Some say it ended in the spring of 1919, while others believe it continued to claim victims through 1920. Eventually, however, this deadly strain of the flu disappeared.
To this day, no one knows why the flu virus suddenly mutated into such a deadly form. Nor do they know how to prevent it from happening again. Scientists continue to research and learn about the 1918 Spanish flu in the hopes of being able to prevent another worldwide pandemic of the flu.
::That’s it for the history lesson today.:: C.s.
Everyone enjoying the latest propaganda? This whole coronavirus thing is a joke. Don’t get caught up in the wave of panic. Two weeks from now it’ll be over. The timing sure was sweet considering the market was so overbought though, heh?
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Expect one more gut punch from the spike in new cases associated with the increase in testing that’s about to occur. At least this should decrease the mortality percentages on a per case basis.
My brother who was hanging out the winter in Tahailand most likely caught this 8 weeks back.
He was laid low with a ongoing headache ,fatigued, and BAD body shaking cough, for
- two weeks. The coughing part he said was the worst part. Threw his back out coughing so hard. Said it would take him to his knees at times.
He laied low staying hydrated with electrolytes
and eating when he could. He lost weight by time he kicked it.
Said its the dusty /smoky season as they burn off the rice fields getting them ready for spring planting. He just thought that was the cause of his flue like problem.
He has moved on to Bali and has made a full recovery as he can tell.
He’s one of those healthy adventurous type, who just, presses on to the next adventure.
He did mention that almost all men in Thailand smoke and look malnourished, so if any one country should be stacking the dead like cordwood it would be that one. He did not see that.
So yes people. Take it all in context. More people are alive then dead who test positive with this. Here’s to all your good healths. C-S
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Yes, in China about 60% of men smoke and only 40% of women do, may be one of the reasons they said it hits men harder than women. FWIW
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Probably but the leading co-factors on how lethal it is are age, high blood pressure, diabetes and heart disease per research paper out of China.
Well written article on the seasonality effects and what might we expect with the coronavirus. To make a long story short, since basically no one has immunity, seasonal improvement this year will likely be muted especially in densely populated areas.