George,
I just saw you on Channel 2 news CBS regarding the effects of COVID-19 on one of your restaurants. I’m sorry you have to close up for now, but hopefully you’ll come back stronger. You were an inspiration serving first responders on your own dime and time during Hurricane Sandy and nobody that I know on this board deserves more success than you my friend.
Stay strong!
Hi Trader,
Just had to comment, give it a couple of weeks. Remember, the numbers are going double every six days or so. After seeing what was going on during spring break I’ll take the under for Florida. We start running out of hospital beds and ventilators in May. The countries that have been successful, test like crazy (Singapore,Taiwan and Hong Kong) We still don’t have enough tests. 20% of people being admitted to ICU are between 20 and 50 years old. You go to ICU when you need a ventilator; good luck finding one in June. I only bring this up because I had to pass the pandemic class every year on the fire department. I finally got to use the knowledge. (holy crap, I had to pass the hand washing test) The only guy telling the truth in this administration is Dr. Fauci. One thing we should be doing that successful countries have done is to wear masks. I think they told us not to use them because they knew that there wasn’t enough for 1st responders. When they become more available people should wear them when out near other people.
enough
Kevin
ya the scene of all those young people partying reminds me of the movie Independence Day where all those people are partying on the roof of the building right before the ray hits the city and flattens it.Here in Canada they tell people not to wear masks unless you are showing signs of it or have a cough. They say it gives a false sense of security to uninfected people and if you have a mask on, you tend to touch your face more. FWIW
It is NOT the flu…NYMAG article:
You call a friend and arrange to meet for lunch. It’s unseasonably springlike, so you choose a place with outdoor seating, which seems like it should be safer. As usual, you take all reasonable precautions: You use hand sanitizer, sit a good distance from other customers, and try to avoid touching your face, though that last part is hard. A part of you suspects that this whole thing might be overblown.
What you don’t know is that ten days ago, your friend’s father was a guest of his business partner at the University Club, where he caught the novel coronavirus from the wife of a cryptocurrency speculator. Three days after that, he coughed into his hand before opening the door of his apartment to welcome his son home. The saliva of COVID-19 patients can harbor half a trillion virus particles per teaspoon, and a cough aerosolizes it into a diffuse mist. As your friend walked through the door he took a breath and 32,456 virus particles settled onto the lining of his mouth and throat.
Viruses have been multiplying inside his body ever since. And as he talks, the passage of his breath over the moist lining of his upper throat creates tiny droplets of virus-laden mucus that waft invisibly into the air over your table. Some settle on the as-yet-uneaten food on your plate, some drift onto your fingers, others are drawn into your nasal sinus or settle into your throat. By the time you extend your hand to shake good-bye, your body is carrying 43,654 virus particles. By the time you’re done shaking hands, that number is up to 312,405.
One of the droplets gets drawn into the branching passages of your lungs and settles on the warm, wet surface, depositing virus particles into the mucus coating the tissue. Each particle is round and very small; if you magnified a human hair so that it was as wide as a football field, the virus particle would be four inches across. The outer membrane of the virus consists of an oily layer embedded with jagged protein molecules called spike proteins. These stick out like the protrusions on a knobby ball chew toy. In the middle of the virus particle is a coiled strand of RNA, the virus’s genetic material. The payload.
As the virus drifts through the lung’s mucus, it bumps into one of the cells that line the surface. The cell is considerably larger than the virus; on the football-field scale, it’s 26 feet across. A billion years of evolution have equipped it to resist attackers. But it also has a vulnerability — a backdoor. Protruding from its surface is a chunk of protein called angiotensin converting enzyme 2, or ACE2 receptor. Normally, this molecule plays a role in modulating hormone activity within the body. Today, it’s going to serve as an anchor for the coronavirus.
As the spike protein bumps up against the surface of the lung cell, its shape matches that of the ACE2 so closely that it sticks to it like adhesive. The membrane of the virus then fuses with the membrane of the cell, spilling the RNA contents into the interior of the lung cell. The virus is in.
The viral RNA gets busy. The cell has its own genetic material, DNA, that produces copied fragments of itself in RNA form. These are continuously copied and sent into the main body of the cell, where they provide instructions for how to make the proteins that carry out all the functions of the cell. It’s like Santa’s workshop, where the elves, dutifully hammering out the toys on Santa’s instructions, are complexes of RNA and protein called ribosomes.
As soon as the viral RNA encounters a ribosome, that ribosome begins reading it and building viral proteins. These proteins then help the viral RNA to copy itself, and these copies then hijack more of the cell’s ribosomes. Other viral proteins block the cell from fighting back. Soon the cell’s normal business is completely overwhelmed by the demands of the viral RNA, as its energy and machinery are occupied with building the components of countless replica viruses.
As they are churned out, these components are transferred on a kind of cellular conveyor belt toward the surface of the cell. The virus membrane and spike proteins wrap around RNA strands, and a new particle is ready. These collect in internal bubbles, called vesicles, that move to the surface, burst open, and release new virus particles into your body by the tens and hundreds of thousands.
Meanwhile, spike proteins that haven’t been incorporated into new viruses embed themselves directly into the host cell’s membrane so that it latches onto the surface of an adjacent cell, like a pirate ship lashing itself to a helpless merchantman. The two cells then fuse, and a whole host of viral RNA swarms over into the new host cell.
All up and down your lungs, throat, and mouth, the scene is repeated over and over as cell after cell is penetrated and hijacked. Assuming the virus behaves like its relative, SARS, each generation of infection takes about a day and can multiply the virus a millionfold. The replicated viruses spill out into the mucus, invade the bloodstream, and pour through the digestive system.
You don’t feel any of this. In fact, you still feel totally fine. If you have any complaint at all, it’s boredom. You’ve been a dutiful citizen, staying at home to practice social distancing, and after two days of bingeing on the Fast & Furious franchise, you decide that your mental health is at risk if you don’t get outside.
You call up an ex, and she agrees to meet you for a walk along the river. You’re hoping that the end-of-the-world zeitgeist might kindle some afternoon recklessness, but the face mask she’s wearing kills the vibe. Also she tells you that she’s decided to move in with a guy she met at Landmark. You didn’t even know she was into Landmark. She gives you a warm hug as you say good-bye, and you tell her it was great to see her, but you leave feeling deflated. What she doesn’t know is that an hour before, you went to the bathroom and neglected to wash your hands afterward. The invisible fecal smear you leave on the arm of her jacket contains 893,405 virus particles. Forty-seven seconds after she gets home, she’ll hang up her coat and then scratch an itch at the base of her nose just before she washes her hands. In that moment, 9,404 viral particles will transfer to her face. In five days, an ambulance will take her to Mount Sinai.
Like a retail chain gobbled up by private equity, stripped for parts, and left to die, your infected cells spew out virus particles until they burn themselves out and expire. As fragments of disintegrated cells spread through your bloodstream, your immune system finally senses that something is wrong. White blood cells detect the fragments of dead cells and release chemicals called cytokines that serve as an alarm signal, activating other parts of the immune system to swing into action. When responding immune cells identify a cell that has become infected, they attack and destroy it. Within your body, a microscopic Battle of the Somme is raging with your immune system leveling its Big Berthas on both the enemy trenches and its own troops. As the carnage mounts, the body’s temperature rises and the infected area becomes inflamed.
Two days later, sitting down to lunch, you realize that the thought of eating makes you feel nauseated. You lie down and sleep for a few hours. When you wake up, you realize that you’ve only gotten worse. Your chest feels tight, and you’ve got a dry cough that just won’t quit. You wonder: Is this what it feels like? You rummage through your medicine cabinet in vain and ultimately find a thermometer in the back of your linen closet. You hold it under your tongue for a minute and then read the result: 102. Fuck, you think, and crawl back into bed. You tell yourself that it might just be the regular flu, and even if worse comes to worst, you’re young(-ish) and otherwise healthy. You’re not in the high-risk group.
You’re right, of course, in a sense. For most people infected with the coronavirus, that’s as far as it goes. With bed rest, they get better. But for reasons scientists don’t understand, about 20 percent of people get severely ill. Despite your relative youth, you’re one of them.
After four days of raging fever and feeling sore all over, you realize that you’re sicker than you’ve ever been in your life. You’ve got a dry cough that shakes you so hard that your back hurts. Fighting for breath, you order an Uber and head to the nearest emergency room. (You leave 376,345,090 virus particles smeared on various surfaces of the car and another 323,443,865 floating in aerosols in the air.)
At the ER, you’re examined and sent to an isolation ward. As doctors wait for the results of a test for the coronavirus, they administer a CT scan of your lungs, which reveals tell-tale “ground-glass opacities,” fuzzy spots caused by fluid accumulating where the immune-system battle is the most intense. Not only have you got COVID-19, but it’s led to a kind of intense and dangerous pneumonia called acute-respiratory-distress syndrome, or ARDS.
With all the regular beds already occupied by the many COVID-19 sufferers, you’re given a cot in a room alongside five other patients. Doctors put you on an intravenous drip to supply your body with nutrients and fluids as well as antiviral medicine. Within a day of your arrival, your condition deteriorates. You throw up for several days and start to hallucinate. Your heart rate slows to 50 beats a minute. When a patient in the next room dies, doctors take the ventilator he was using and put you on it. By the time the nurse threads the endotracheal tube down your throat, you’re only half-conscious of the sensation of it snaking deeper and deeper toward your lungs. You just lie there as she places tape over your mouth to keep the tube in place.
You’re crashing. Your immune system has flung itself into a “cytokine storm” — an overdrive of such intensity that it is no longer fighting just the viral infection but the body’s own cells as well. White blood cells storm your lungs, destroying tissue. Fluid fills the tiny alveolar sacs that normally let the blood absorb oxygen. Effectively, you’re drowning, even with the ventilator pumping oxygen-enriched air into your lungs.
That’s not the worst of it. The intensity of the immune response is such that under its onslaught, organs throughout the body are shutting down, a process known as multiple-organ-dysfunction syndrome, or MODS. When your liver fails, it is unable to process toxins out of your blood, so your doctors rush to hook you up to a round-the-clock dialysis machine. Starved of oxygen, your brain cells begin to expire.
You’re fluttering on the edge between life and death. Now that you’ve slipped into MODS, your odds are 50-50 or worse. Owing to the fact that the pandemic has stretched the hospital’s resources past the breaking point, your outlook is even bleaker.
Lying on your cot, you half-hear as the doctors hook you up to an extracorporeal-membrane-oxygenation (ECMO) machine. This will take over the work of your heart and lungs and hopefully keep you alive until your body can find its way back to equilibrium.
And then, you are flooded with an overwhelming sense of calm. You sense that you have reached the nadir of your struggle. The worst of the danger is over. With the viral attack beaten, your body’s immune system will pull back, and you’ll begin the slow, painstaking journey to full recovery. Some weeks from now, the doctors will remove the tube from your throat and wheel away the ventilator. Your appetite will come back, and the color will return to your cheeks, and on a summer morning you’ll step out into the fresh air and hail a cab for home. And later still, you’ll meet the girl who will become your wife, and you’ll have three children, two of whom will have children of their own, who will visit you in your nursing home outside Tampa.
That’s what your mind is telling itself, anyway, as the last cells of your cerebral cortex burst in starburst waves, like the glowing algae in a midnight lagoon. In the isolation ward, your EKG goes to a steady tone. The doctors take away the ventilator and give it to a patient who arrived this morning. In the official records of the COVID-19 pandemic, you’ll be recorded as victim No. 592.
When experts look back and wonder why containment measurements didn’t work in the U.S./Canada; one of these main reasons identified will be the lack of the population not wearing masks. Hand washing, social distancing only gets you so far. For instance, here locally everything is closed except the grocery stores. However, these places are full of people with no masks on standing in line at the cash register! They all seem calm and secure with the knowledge that applying a little hand sanitizer after they leave the store that all will be well. (Of course, not that the general population has access to any in the U.S. I do have some although my better half has talked me into donating a box of faceshield/mask combo type that I acquired to the local hospital as they are putting out the message they are desperate for them.)
Was just listening to a guy, that said the reason Germany and Israel had such lower death rates to cases, is because they’re using the malaria drug to treat people. Haven’t confirmed it myself yet, but just read an article out of France where they said they had good results there with it. FWIW
I think there is reason for optimism but likely is no miracle drug. The study which most of the hype is based on was rather flaky(I’m being generous), too small and left out the patients that dropped out of the study who died or couldn’t continue because they became too nauseous. It appears at best, it will help patients recover faster and clear more hospital space which is great but for those that have a severe case, the fact that it takes a couple of days to work is often too long since hospitals now are generally only taking patients that are already in trouble and they crash quickly or the infection spins into doing organ damage. Note that they have been using it in Italy to some extent and patients are still dying despite taking it. The antibiotics that are taken with it are likely more effective as it is well known that it is often opportunistic bacteria that does the real damage vs the virus itself. (Think Spanish flu.) Still the low death rate in Germany/Israel suggests that they are certainly doing something right. There is some discussion that the different strains found in different countries is the actual reason but experts dispute this as the various strains don’t vary enough to make them either more or less deadly. The demographics of those actually infected is the current mostly commonly cited theory and the level of adequate supportive care they get in the hospitals.
One expert:
“In short, all this hype on the clinical trial is based on a open label, non randomized and underpowered clinical trial on HCQ treatment against #COVID19 with viral load as an outcome that was not properly measured in 2/3 of the control cohort !!!”
The reason an outbreak is labeled a pandemic is because it spreads rapidly with negative global impact economically socially, and of course from a public health perspective. Everyone in healthcare knows positive mental imagery can have a measurable positive outcome in a disease process. Assurances can go a long way in contributing to healing. I’ll Have to keep this as short as possible as I do not presently have use of my home computer.
The drug is used as a prophylactic and curatively in the treatment of certain types of malaria. In the US Hydrochloroquine (Plaquenil) is more widely prescribed and used in the Tx of rheumatoid arthritis and lupus. It is made by Bayer and Teva. I had heard that 3 million doses were sent here to the US from Bayer and Teva was sending 10 million doses.
For arthritis and lupus the safety profile is well known for daily dosing of 200-400mg and can continued to be used indefinitely for years. Rx for malaria prevention or treatment is very different. For prevention the usual dose is 400mg taken in doses 1 week apart for several weeks prior to traveling to mosquito infested area where malaria is prevalent. I’v taken it in the past with no noticeable side effects. Treating for malaria is different using 800mg initially followed by 400mg 6-8 hours and then 400 mg 24 and 48 hours later. Higher doses may increase side effects, but treatment of malaria is the major concern. For arthritis and lupus Paquenil can be classified as a disease modifying antiheumatic drug (DMARD) to treat certain autoimmune diseases. It is generally considered safe in the range of prescribed dosages.
5 weeks ago only 3 confirmed cases of Covid19 were confirmed in Italy. Modeling is incredibly inaccurate as in the case of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009. Early on the CDC statistics for 3 months (April 15 to July 24, 2009) reported 43,771 confirmed and probable cases with 5011 hospitalized and 301 patients that died. Final stats published 2 years later after the pandemic was over has a clue as to what to expect during the next several months. The CDC report from 2011 for H1N1 estimates 60.8 million cases,in the US, 274,304 hospitalized, and 12,469 deaths. The report covers April 12, 2009 - April 10, 2010 with the range of estimates containing a great amount of uncertainty. The Covid19 pandemic in the US is certainly going to be a really bad one, however the estimates widely appearing in the media are worst case and overblown IMO.
If I had to predict the use of Pacquenil for this outbreak my hope is it would at first be used prophilactically for healthcare workers and 1st responders and prescribed by physicians for the more severe at home cases. Some less severely hospitalized patients may be assessed and treated to lessen the severity and duration of illness. It would be devastating if the outbreak incapacitates those taking care of the hospitalized patients.
Also, testing is less important for the general public at this stage except for those showing symptoms to properly distinguish a diagnosis from the seasonal flu. Testing will become increasingly important and widely available not only for policy decisions and guidance, but also for those returning to work and the economic recovery in the future. Data collection is only in the early and preliminary stages at this point in time. We’ll know much more in the next couple of months. Know that these are my own personal thoughts as to what is occurring. It is my hope those reading this will continue to stay safe and practice healthful living and thoughts towards healing.
https://twitter.com/drleslie_md/status/1241001974356561921?s=12&fbclid=IwAR2T_CAjpOmJRBYQf3VPXA8yLKaFzilx2Kz4x2zkIE3P7EbPrBIpBx3cfGw This is me and my youngest daughter when I say I’m going to store for something
In the virus war with H1N1 vs SARS-COV-2, SARS-COV-2 wins hands down.
H1N1 R0 is 1.5
SARS-COV-2 RO is 2.5 to possibly as high as 5 in densely populated areas with no social distancing.
H1N1 World Death Rate 0.001 to 0.007% of the world’s population
SARS-COV-2 Expected to be at least 1% to drastically higher in 3rd world countries with no medical care.
H1N1 Older Americans had limited immunity. Younger had none.
SARS-COV-2 No one immune but younger impacted less
H1N1 Seasonality like other flu’s.
SARS-COV-2 Little seasonality now anticipated till some herd immunity develops.
H1N1 U.S. Deaths 12,649 over a one year period.
SARS-COV-2 1 million U.S. deaths best case scenario per NY Times.
Note…the actual death toll has been under reported basically everywhere and it will be years before good estimates are available based on looking at increases in deaths compared to previous year(s). In the meantime, probably mistake to compare the numbers to previous pandemics that already have final decent estimates available.
Here is just one example of the under reporting in Italy:
“Last week alone, 400 people died in Bergamo and 12 neighboring towns — four times the number who died the same week the previous year, according to the Bergamo mayor’s office. Only 91 of those had tested positive for the virus.”
Another example, based on newly released phone data, several million cell phone customers have mysteriously disappeared in China. What is up with that? Did the owners die?
Deaths not caused by the virus may also significantly increase. One example, lots of medical procedures are being postponed. This will have consequences. For me, my dental cleaning was cancelled. My teeth may fallout before I’m allowed into a clinic again at the rate things are going now! Another example, just social distancing in India will result in hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths from people that are already living on the edge.
Finally, for the it’s just another flu crowd, I offer you this graphic for NYC. Charts all flu-like illness in the city. Easy to see the background flu level on this chart. It under reports the recent severity of the problem as they have drastically raised the bar on who was getting admitted to the hospital.
On last thought: “It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy shit, this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube.” A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients — ProPublica
Just a few things I’d like to clarify. (Apologies for another tediously written post from my phone, but there is no way to keep this really brief!) The media’s reporting of information can be quite misleading. Early stage reporting of “cases” and deaths can lead to sensationalization that in retrospect is rather irrational in the final analysis. There is no doubt that the SAR-CO-V2 pandemic will be globally devastating with a very large death count in the end. The measures to contain it will have far more lasting effects than the immediate health concerns that will certainly be overcome.
To start with there are many terms that end up being used in a very confusing manner.
SARS, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome is SARS-Co-V
Corona Virus, COVID19, Wuhan coronavirus is SARS-Co-V2
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, MERS, “Camel Flu” is MERS-Co-V
(The above are all corona type viruses.)
Swine Flu or H1N1 is a true type A influenza with several main variants and properly designated (tr)H1N1. The Spanish Flu of 1918 is also a type A influenza. Neither is a corona virus. The point I had tried to make earlier is that the model based on the “number” of cases and recovery rate is far from accurate in predicting the total number of resulting deaths from an outbreak. The trouble arises from confusing case-fatality rate with mortality. Added to the confusion is the so-called “death rate” that is properly a retrospective percentage of the population that were infected. In the case of H1N1 the first three months of case based reported “numbers” had a case-fatality rate of 4.5% (0.045). Based in retrospect the final “numbers” of incidence (60.3M) has the mortality rate of 0.0002 (0.02%)! Far less than one would initially be led to believe and very confusing. The initial 3 month report did nothing much to predict what the spread or incidence would be because diagnostic testing was not widely performed. That is the same situation we are in today.
There are so many factors that come into play in utilizing the healthcare system efficiently. It is clear that a large percentage of the population will not need hospitalization to overcome being infected and “cured” by this virus. Those that do will need to be handled with very special precautions to prevent those treating these patients from becoming infected from the very high viral counts they are exposed to daily. That is an immediate problem that needs an immediate solution. Without a fully staffed hospital there will not be any healthcare for those needing treatment and intervention in a hospital setting.
There is a much higher death rate in the elderly population than the general population from SARS-Co-V2. Those who are finally hospitalized are typically very sick. The severely ill may experience a cytokine storm which is an inappropriate inflammatory immune response. The Cytokine Storm Syndrome often results in multiple organ failures and may be too late for therapeutic treatments alone. These patients must be put on ventilators if they are to be given a chance to survive. There are not enough ventilators in the country to treat an excessive number of this type of severely ill patient.
What is being looked at to mitigate the severity of disease before this happens are a number of likely therapeutic agents, including the much talked about hydrochloroquine. Recently, Interluken-6 (IL-6, Roche, Sanofi S.A.) has indicated a good therapeutic result with SARS-Co-V2 as a possible agent to modulate the inflammatory process.
Back to the initial point I was trying to make. The contagion factor for SARS-Co-V2 is incredibly high. Controlling the rate of how quickly it spreads is useful to model solutions in formulating strategy, policy and treatments. The goal is to minimize the total number of deaths with the ability of the healthcare system to treat those who are ill. This must be accomplished without overwhelming the system with more patients coming in at the same than the hospitals can support.
Comparing to the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic is sensationalism as there are no actual statistics, but the estimated case-fatality >2% with an extremely large percentage of the population becoming infected. Estimates of total deaths range 50-100 million worldwide. That was well before the scientific age of today’s modern medicines and interventions. There were no influenza vaccines in 1918.
The H1N1 influenza infected 1 in 5 of the of the general population. Worst case models predict 3-4 out of 5 to eventually be infected after the 1st year of the SARS-Co-V2 pandemic. This worst case will not likely occur in the US. Containment and mitigation could drastically reduce, or at least slow down the spread in the population, so that the peak of the infection is not so overwhelming like has happened in Italy. The Ebola anti-viral Remdesivir (Giliad) is currently undergoing trials and can block viral replication. It previously was shown to be active against MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Preliminary results are expected in April when it may gain compassionate use status. Hydroxychloroquine (Pacquenil) also reduces the viral load by interfering with replication. This effect is enhanced when used in combo with Zithromax Z-Pak (Azithromycin).
A limited peer reviewed trial (only 24 patients) was reported out of France. Treatment with Pacquinil (Hydroxchloroquine) speeded up healing. (In rheumatoid arthritis Pacquenil has an anti-inflammatory effect which may also reduce severity.) Treatment consisted of 3 (200mg) Pacquenil tablets daily. Viral counts dropped after 5-6 days of treatment and were non-contagious in 25% of the patients . If given to healthcare workers prophylactically would it induce prevention of SARS-Co-V2, similar to the way it prevents malaria when administered prior to exposure? An interesting question which should be explored given the high viral exposure in surrounding physicians and healthcare workers.
There are many governmental and private corporate investigators around the world working on near term treatments and long term prevention to this corona virus. Recently, IBM’s SUMMIT Supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory screened 8,000 likely compounds to find 77 small-molecule drug compounds to combat SARS-CoV2. A very rapid simple test (paper based from MIT?) is awaiting approval from the FDA which may soon be announced. Compassionate use and off-label use of currently available medications are being prescribed and used. There is so much progress being made and information coming out each day that it is certain that this virus will be defeated. Beyond the steadily climbing case-fatality rate which will be great, there will be a far greater economic and human cost globally.
Negativity in a continuous feedback loop in much of the general media is creating additional stress and a division of effort to an already incredibly bad situation. Healthcare must not be allowed to fail. An overwhelmed Healthcare System will certainly overwhelm the Nation’s economy. First order of business is solving the pandemic which will lead to an economic recovery caused by the pandemic. Allowing businesses to open back up will allow the Financial panic to also recover. The country must first find the solutions for America by containment, treatment and rapid diagnostic testing to get the working public back to work as quickly as possible. Americans will overcome these obstacles and difficulties with solutions!
See graph. The countries in light blue are where everyone is wearing masks. If I hear one more time in the U.S. that there is no need to wear a mask if you are healthy advise, I’m going to lose it!
There is no need to wear a mask.
Commence losing “it”.
I don’t want to be too much of a buzz kill, so for those of you who are reveling in fear and panic, DON’T watch the following…
John Hopkins is a great source of information, but the graph is not showing the dependence of wearing masks for saving lives. Masks can certainly be important in reducing the spread of contagion. No argument there, but know what your looking at in the graph which is lacking the narrative of proper context.
The graph perfectly plots case-fatality rate. Note rate is the X axis (i.e. time) and those severe cases showing up at the hospital too late to treat successfully (i.e. deaths) are represented in the Y axis. It is a single variable graph lacking the data for a solution! Replot the data once wide-spread high-speed testing is available for the general population and you will see SARS-Co-V2 incidence based deaths (i.e. mortality rate), also a single rate variable plot, showing a completely different story. Mike, there are no single variable solutions to the problems we are facing. Multiple problems requiring input with multiple variables will deliver a variety of solutions.
I can agree with your comment about masks if you are in a tightly packed viral-rich area like a hospital, clinic or doctor’s office. Where does your healthcare worker get one when there are none in supply? Supply the hospitals with masks 1st or there will be no-one taking care of those you care about!
It will be the lack of wearing masks that will be the one thing that will differentiate the U.S. response from the other countries in SE Asia. When we don’t see the kind of results experienced there, the reason won’t be a mystery. They absolutely work when everybody wears one. It is the final line of defense where social mixing continues such at grocery stores and other necessary common areas. (FYI…I know that a team of medical experts from China were absolutely appalled at the lack of mask wearing that they found in the hard hit areas of Italy.)
The FDA has just approved the SARS-Co-V2 “Point of Care” test kit for professional use in hospitals. It diagnostically tests for the specific SARS-Co-V2 antibodies with results in only 15 minutes. This will be a real game changer for hospitals to know what they are actually treating and what precautions staff will need to take.
Additionally, IBM, GOOG, MSFT, Amazon and other Silicon Valley giants are using super computers to analyze data swiftly and come up with viable treatment solutions in a conserted team approach.
For the present time, until there is a plentiful supply of masks, stay inside! Use social distancing if you need to venture outside. Follow CDC and Task Force directives for the next seven days.
From a newly released Swiss study based on a good data set.
“Before the lockdown in Switzerland, we estimate the basic reproduction number R0 of COVID-19 at 4.26. This value of R0 requires transmission to be reduced by at least 77% (1 - 1/R0) in order to drop the effective reproduction number R below the critical threshold of 1.”
Note the R0 of 4.26!!! (H1N1 was only 1.46)
Why you should wear a mask: Guidance against wearing masks for the coronavirus is wrong – you should cover your face - The Boston Globe
.... global-health-effects-on-markets-and-mining-stock .....
**“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.” – **Sun Tzu**
Who ever, among the large nations, comes out of this virus problem the fastest,
will be top dog.
If they hold little debt, are flush with gold, and hold others debt, will help …
…Or hold the patent on this virus (which is patented). you might hold the vaccination to it. $$
May you stay healthy, and wise.
C.S.
That was a great video. I think we can all agree that the governments involved in all the pandemics mentioned didn’t plan and didn’t provide enough tests, masks or respirators.
Kevin