Dunno. AMC will have the best insight into the potential value of the mountain so they would be in a good position to offer $225M even if the announced results didn’t support that valuation. I can’t see any scenario where AMC is going to buy back partial ownership (from the 25%) to give MDMN an opportunity for dividends or a buyback. Instead AMC would simply buy shares more aggressively in the open market to take advantage of any disconnect and increase their interest in the public vehicle. They won’t be agreeable to anything that benefits MDMN shareholders over their own. If it only cost them $10M to increase their ownership from 35% to 70%, as an example, it makes sense for them to pursue that option at the appropriate time. Any suggestion that they would instead give that $10M to MDMN so that their current 35% would go up in value, flies the face of very basic, risk/reward analysis.
This is just my best guess as how things unfold. I have no urgency to bail on this investment. It’s in the drawer. The speculation on timelines has a lot more to do with how long AMC is going to tolerate having a minority holder (MDMN) tied to their efforts and capex. There will come a point where acquiring the 30% (MDMN & CDCH) will make sense from a cost of capital standpoint. The quicker they advance the mountain, the quicker they will look to own the asset outright.
I appreciate that my opinion may not be popular with some of the “lottery ticket crowd” but, as is evident by the share price, MDMN has gone from a “penny story stock” to a legitimate mining play that requires a lot more than “fluff/Lespeak” to regain momentum. It’s important for people to start weighing traditional fundamental factors and realistic/comparative valuations to better understand this investment’s potential.