The Mining Play

MDMN - 2016-05-16 Weekly Discussion


#1185

Great post KMT. Very nice summation.
Fellow long-timer.


#1186

This post was flagged by the community and is temporarily hidden.


#1187

It’s not our call, it’s AURYN’s call as to the best way to run their business.

However, I will ask the question and tell you unequivocally that the last thing I want AURYN to do is manage their business toward focusing on MDMN’s share price in the short term. I cannot imagine AURYN exercising poor business judgment to meet your or any other shareholder’s short-term concerns. If I were to see them doing so, I would speak out against it.

I didn’t hold on for this long to be placated in a pump and dump and have it collapse or minimize the profits of everyone else for my short-term gain. If that was the case I would have dumped at $0.10.

Poll question:

How do you want to see AURYN manage their company?

  • Short-term focus on the MDMN share price – manage AURYN in a way that puts MDMN shareholders first and increases MDMN’s share price as fast as possible even at the risk of long-term profitability, maximizing the ultimate payout, or sustainability.

  • Long-term focus on what’s best for the business – execute sound business practices and focus on long term growth, sustainability and profitability for all of AURYN shareholders, including MDMN (a 25% shareholder in AMC.)

0 voters


#1188

I’ll add this to the poll…NO WAY do I want 100% more dilution. You’re crazy! :slight_smile:


#1189

So you are looking for investors to get net positive using dividends. OK. I’ll share with you that my all in average share price is a 1.807 cent per share. Please share with us your average share cost so we can know how much of a dividend it will take to get you net positive.


#1190

This post was flagged by the community and is temporarily hidden.


#1191

So you basically need 7-8 cents, at a minimum, to “get positive.” Hey, that’s only $100M worth of dividends.


#1192

Can somebody explain a discrepancy shown on my TD Webbroker system. The Mdmn volume for Friday is reported approx 2.8 million traded shares, however in the daily price volume summary for Mdmn is reported 5.5 million traded shares. Both are improved volumes, especially for a Friday, but which is correct?


#1193

How does it skew it? Read your posts above. You are advocating for AMC to make MDMN’s short-term share price a priority, even at the risk of long-term profitability, maximum return, and sustainability.

You can’t have it both ways. Capital is VERY expensive. Your call for distribution of it to prop up the share price may actually end up hurting more than it helps.

BTW, I think the sound business approach is actually the best short and long-term help for MDMN’s share price. I believe that once the market realizes the old days of penny stock pump and dump are over for MDMN. That AMC is actually a serious player with sound management and business plans, and that the ADL is the REAL DEAL – the stock price will do much, much better.

We will be far more rewarded with AMC conducting themselves properly than we will if they do the same old stuff or do stupid things like multiple rounds of dividends in the short-term to pump up the price. The market is not dumb with MDMN. A dividend is not going to effect the share price unless it is demonstrated that it’s sustainable.


#1194

OK. You got me to bite. If my cost average is 1.8 cents (corrected from my misleading origional post showing 0.01807 cents) how do you figure I need 7-8 cents to get positive? Don’t misunderstand. I wouldn’t object to seeing 7-8 cents per share in dividends but I’d like to see the way you address this. I assume you have a number to assign to lost opportunities and other issues but I haven’t actually seen a formula for this. Looking forward to seeing yours. Thanks.

Good point. So for Medinah to receive $100M worth of dividends AMC would have to issue $400 M in dividends and, as we both know, none of that would take into consideration taxes.


#1195

Wiz, is there an “ignore” feature available? Like we had on the previous site? Thx, NoDoubt


#1196

You are suggesting that way down the road (however far off that is in time) and after we have received a nickel in dividends only then AMC would have your approval to drill the PN?

Earlier you said[quote=“leanandgreen, post:1186, topic:1280”]
to focus on cash rewards and shelf the PN until all investors of this project are net positive.
[/quote]

Now you are saying 5 or so cents. What about those investors who have stated they are working from averages of .10 + cents per share. Are they now not part of the “all investors” you were concerned about getting net positive? Was you original statement that included “all investors becoming net positive” simply an attempt on your part to gain support for your position, did you simply reconsider your position after doing the math, or is the answer that a 5 cent dividend would meet you personal needs without regard to your call for “all investors” becoming net positive and the potential damage AMC issuing total dividends in excess of $ 270 M to meet your 5 cent personal target?


#1197

This post was flagged by the community and is temporarily hidden.


#1198

This post was flagged by the community and is temporarily hidden.


#1199

So is the 100% dilution you are looking for coming when we are at .24 cents and it cuts us back to your .12 cent share price or does it happen when we are at .12 cents and it cuts us back to 6 cents. If it happens at 12 cents then how does a 6 cent share price and a 5 cent dividend stack up with your statement, “Say .12 share price and .05 distributed is .17 per share. Not many are averaged higher than that.”?


#1200

This post was flagged by the community and is temporarily hidden.


#1201

Deal. I’ll forget you mentioned it if you don’t bring it up again. Done.


#1202

I haven’t seen anything where AMC is stating they are spending 10’s of millions on the PN right away in lieu of any distributions? Why are you insinuating that?


#1203

If you agree that the architecture for a pathway is clearly now in place for a very long stream of cash dividends being a reality (admittedly not a 100% certainty but a distinct probability) for Medinah shareholders starting ??? then you might consider the cash dividend distribution process as a 2 Phase endeavor. The most critical phase is Phase 1 which involves allocating the earliest cash flow not needed to pay bills to share repurchases and cancellations (not cash dividends) if you feel that the current market cap does not reflect an appropriate valuation for the company and its prognosis for success. The official message being sent here is that management (who should know the most) officially declares the share price out of whack with reality. This should result in somewhat of a perceived “floor” under the share price.

Why is a share repurchase plan so critical? It’s because if your projected mine life and therefore projected stream of cash dividend flow is somewhere around 30 years, the generosity of each and every one of those 120 quarterly dividends ON A PER SHARE BASIS will become augmented by one preliminary aggressive share repurchase program. If your projected mine life is 30 DAYS instead of 30 years then don’t worry about a share repurchase program. Sure the first cash dividend will be delayed but it will be well worth it. Dilutional damages are REVERSIBLE but only if you have BOTH a valuation disparity and access to cash flow able to be allocated to share repurchases and cancellations.

When you have a situation like ours with a private company (AMC and associates) holding a large percentage of Medinah’s shares and a publicly traded company (Medinah) holding a large percentage of AMC’s shares then by far and away the most powerful share repurchase program would involve a “tax free share swap” of let’s say $10 million worth of Medinah shares for $10 million worth of AMC’s shares. The key is that “the market” (subject to corruption and getting it grossly wrong) determines how many shares of Medinah constitute $10 million worth and the mining industry (much more trustworthy) determines what $10 million worth of AMC shares constitutes probably via some form of a fairness opinion. The two different valuation metrics is the key because AMC, being private, does not have a “market cap”.

Today’s market says that about 675 million shares of Medinah is worth $10 million. Once into production, the mining industry might say that $10 million worth of AMC represents perhaps, let’s say, 6 of Medinah’s 25 percentage points in AMC. In this example, Medinah cancels half of its shares and only loses about one fourth of its assets.

Medinah currently has what is referred to as a “capped” market. No matter how positive a development is as per industry standards, the share price refuses to respond. It simply is what it is. The management team and BOD that “the market” abolutely detested just got replaced by a bunch of mining stud muffins and there was ZERO market response. The fourth of the property (the Nuoco concessions) that Medinah has a generous 36.25% interest in just got permitted for production. The market response was ZERO. The Caren/Merlin Mine is about to go into production and the Brexit ramifications have cause gold to go nuts in the short term and it places an “uncertainty bid” under the POG for years ahead. ZERO market response. There should have been at least slight incremental gains with these developments especially in regards to the management and BOD takeovers. Why the market is “capped” is not as important as Medinah taking advantage of the fact that it is currently “capped”. Development stage corporations rarely have an opportunity to BOTH reverse prior dilution and to establish the pathway for a very long stream of abnormally generous (post-share cancellations) cash dividend flow.


Medinah Minerals (MDMN) - 2016 Q3 - General Discussion (recovered)
#1204

Still 2 opposites here, very much completely apart.

Baldy that says we won’t see one div and won’t be around 18 months from now due to a 15-20 cents TO and Doc that talks about an ever increasing 30 years cash dividends distribution.

God knows where the truth is…