Chilean winter… time to clean up the house and get ready for exploration activities to resume in the spring. AMNP–>AUMC<–MDMN?
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If Auryn is posturing our properties for sale or JV, NOW is the time! I keep reading that financiers are actually COMPETING to get deals with junior exploration companies.
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THINKING THROUGH THE MEDINAH/AURYN SITUATION
WHAT’S THE OVERALL GAME PLAN ARTICULATED TO DATE?
Maurizio wants AUMC to become a mid-tier gold producer ASAP, he wants to build a MAJOR mining firm and he wants to trade on a loftier trading venue than the current one. He wants to launch a MASSIVE exploration campaign at the ADL involving multiple JVs with mining firms that are specialists in the types of deposits present at the ADL. Due to the prolonged nature of the Medinah/AUMC saga and all of the delays, I think we might forget that Maurizio has outlined his mission statement fairly clearly. Perhaps we just need to refresh it in our minds periodically.
GOAL #1: BECOMING A MID-TIER GOLD PRODUCER
By definition, a mid-tier gold producer produces in between 300,000 and 1 million ounces per year. How could he possibly get to that level of production? Three years ago, the Caren was scheduled to commence production at the rate of 25,000 ounces per year based on an allowable production rate set at 5,000 tonnes per year. Let’s check the math to see if Maurizio is being consistent with his other projections. In terms of grams, 25,000 ounces equates to 777,500 grams of gold production. This is because 1 Troy ounce of gold equates to 31.1 grams. If you divide this by 60,000 tonnes per year allowable production (5,000 tonnes per month multiplied by 12 months), you’ll get an average grade of 13 gpt being mined. This lines up pretty closely with the 15 gpt grade Maurizio has referred to on previous press releases.
Clearly, there is quite a distance in between 25,000 ounces per year and 300,000 ounces per year. The first question that arises is has the 5,000 tonnes per month allowable production rate increased after the completion of the 3 new “ventilation/safety” raises. Maurizio has already told us that the 5,000 tonnes per month allowable production rate is scheduled to scale upwards with time. Recall from a previous press release that Auryn had already put in a new and improved ventilation system into the Larrissa Adit.
In order to scale up production that much, Maurizio is going to need to develop other gold production sites. The Fortuna Mine seems to be the most likely choice but we don’t yet have projected production figures there yet. The last we heard in regards to the Fortuna Mine is that it had been successfully dewatered and they were removing mud/silt from the adit floors. They were also adding timbering for safety reasons. The plan was to resample the adits before deciding on a production plan if the project were deemed to be economic. The historical production grades from 1940 to 1970 were in between 60 and 90 gpt gold. The price of gold at the time was $35 per ounce. ACA Howe’s report already revealed that nobody to date has even scratched the surface on the Fortuna Vein complex.
If Maurizio wants Auryn to produce 300,000 ounces of gold per year he probably will have to go into acquisition mode. Maurizio and his wife own somewhere around 73% of the AUMC shares when figuring in their Medinah and Cerro shareholdings. In order to do this in as nondilutive of a fashion as possible, MAURIZIO IS GOING TO NEED TO GET THE SHARE PRICE OF AURYN UP MANY, MANY-FOLD. As an investor, I like it when management owns the lion’s share of the outstanding shares. I also like it when management is highly incentivized to move the share price up.
The Covid-19 scenario has dropped a bombshell into the lap of the Federal Reserve. The economy had to be shut down, there was no other way to fight the virus. The timing was awful because the debt levels of the government and individuals were already through the roof. If the Fed were to allow the value of capital assets to drop down, then our entire corrupt banking system could unwind. In order to prevent this, the Fed has been forced to PRINT A LOT OF MONEY FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME. This will artificially prop up the value of the capital assets so that an overleveraged banking system can get paid back for the money they have already loaned out.
The need to PRINT A LOT OF MONEY FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME is going to pressure the value of the dollar downwards and support the price of gold FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME. About the only beneficiary of Covid-19 is GOLD and the producers or about to become producers of gold. In the current mining sector, a firm either has the ability to produce GOLD now or in the immediate future or it doesn’t. Gold producers have always enjoyed trading at a higher earnings per share multiple as the base metal producers. That gap is probably about to expand markedly because the effect of Covid-19 on the base metal producers tied more directly to the economy is just opposite of the gold producers.
As far as the timing of attempting to build a major out of a junior miner, Ivan Bebek of Auryn Resources (“the other Auryn”) recently told a Kitco interviewer: “If you look at a handful of companies and their share price performances, including ours, everyone’s gone up between 30 and a few hundred percent. And I think that’s the first sign of money coming in,” he said. “I’d like to think it’s 10 times easier to raise money today than it was six months ago. And I think every mining executive would agree with me.” [end quote] Keep in mind also that interest rates are near ZERO for those that qualify for debt financing. Gold projects may all of a sudden qualify for debt financing.
For the most part investors are smart and they can see the writing on the wall. However, they are not necessarily very quick at acting on their convictions. The “generalist” investors have historically been slow in coming around to gold investments. For the most part, statistically speaking, almost nobody has much exposure to gold. Similar to Goal #1 above in regards to desiring to be a mid-tier gold producer, management is going to have to move up the share price markedly in order to do it in as nondilutive of a fashion as possible.
With the mid-tier miners and major miners having shuttered most of their exploration activities, the number of new discoveries, especially GOLD DISCOVERIES, is de minimis. Replacing the amount of ounces a miner produces is not just a good idea, it is existential. The mid-tiers are going to want to take out any new gold producers in order to not only replenish the ounces they produce but also to gain access to the economies of scale afforded to the majors. Nobody, however, can match the dynamic growth profiles of a new gold producer.
One might anticipate some synergies between the incentive to move the share price up during hyper-growth mode and the potential audience looking for investments in gold producers especially those new gold producers whose share price has not moved yet OR WHOSE SHARE PRICE HAS RECENTLY DROPPED BY 99.7%.
GOAL #3: TRADING ON A LOFTIER TRADING VENUE
Yet once again, this goal also coincides with the NEED to move the share price up. Many loftier trading venues come with it the need to keep the share price over “X” amount. A loftier trading venue would also grow the universe of potential investors, especially institutional investors. CREDIBILITY would also be greatly enhanced.
GOAL #4: TO LAUNCH A MASSIVE EXPLORATION CAMPAIGN UTILIZING JVs WITH “SPECIALISTS” IN THE DEPOSIT TYPES PRESENT AT THE ADL
At the “informational meeting” hosted by Auryn in Las Vegas about 3 years ago, Maurizio admitted that developing the Pegaso Nero Cu-Mo porphyry project at the ADL would be way too big for Auryn to tackle. The CAPEX for projects of that scale is often in the billions of dollars. Maurizio had permission to state that Freeport McMoRan had already signed an NDA with Auryn and was sending a team to the ADL to evaluate the project. Maurizio also mentioned that two other firms, both even larger than Freeport, had shown interest but he did not have permission to use their name. Maurizio has always surrounded himself with the best of the best. If you want to get the job done right you need to start with HUMAN CAPITAL and develop strategic alliances with those more advanced along the learning curve than you are.
From an investor point of view, there has been a dramatic paradigm shift in the mining industry over the last 15 years or so. Mining investors want guaranteed shareholder rewards for incurring the risk they have taken. They no longer want management to take the profits and roll them into new exploration programs designed to block out new MR/MR. The market just doesn’t value ounces in the ground very generously. An ounce of gold in the ground in the DRC has nothing to do with an ounce in the ground in Chile, Canada or the U.S. Investors want share price appreciation but they also want cash dividends that are treated in more of a tax favorable manner. They want share repurchase programs. The CEOs of firms concerned more about MR/MR than shareholder rewards are now gone. Soon we’ll be able to confirm that today’s mining investors want EXPOSURE TO GOLD PRODUCTION more than anything else. People writing about the mining industry will soon be talking in terms of pre- and post-Covid-19 realities. The key now is how incentivized and how capable is management in moving the share price up and/or providing guaranteed shareholder rewards.
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Thanks - and agree with the conclusion that it depends on “how incentivized” management is. Maybe one day we will find out, for better or worse. Let’s just say they do an EXCELLENT job of keeping everything under wraps and not allowing inside information to seep out.
Hi mrb,
No doubt about it, they are indeed EXCELLENT at keeping corporate secrets.
Here’s a portion of Raul’s Curriculum Vitae:
Mr. Del Solar is the founder of One Family Office S.A. He oversees the investment strategy and business development. Mr. Del Solar also specializes in portfolio management, institutional consulting, and offshore trust planning. Mr. Del Solar holds a Bachelors of Business Administration from the University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana, and an MBA from the Thunderbird School of Global Management in Glendale, Arizona. Mr. Del Solar was born and raised in Lima Peru. He began his 25 year career at Westcor Partners in 1990 and after his MBA held different advisory positions with firms like the The Americas Trust Bank, Prudential Securities and UBS International. Prior to joining One Family Office, Mr. Del Solar served as independent Financial Advisor with Delta Equity and was the President of Brick Investment Advisors. [End CV]
Raul handles the investment funds of gazillionaires. I think we all agree that management is going to very, very incentivized to move the share price. Raul’s CV might address the CAPABILITY issue. I think we tend to forget how tiny this investment forum is in real terms. Could you imagine if a couple of whales came in and started feeding? I do sense some empathy coming out of Raul. He knows how frustrated we are. He openly admitted that management HAS HAD the ability to distribute our AUMC shares since last Dec. 15 but it wasn’t “the appropriate time”. His earlier reply to a shareholder stated that we’d know more “at the appropriate time”. His most recent communique to a shareholder contained this:
“We have spoken to legal counsel and we can proceed with allocation of AUMC shares since December 15,2019, however, we have not done so given we are waiting for work to be completed. As soon as it is possible, I will be updating everybody through our website, please check the news update section. I can only say that any delays on updates with respect to AUMC shares owned by Medinah is with the intention of benefiting the shareholder.”
We didn’t learn much more in the second communique other than “the appropriate time is when certain work is completed”. But he also stated that any perceived delays are with the intent of benefitting the shareholder. My inference is that when he rolls out whatever he is going to roll out, he wants to get the biggest bang for the buck he can for all of us. I think this might tie back in with the incentive to move the share price up prior to any need to raise funds out of the market for these lofty goals of Maurizio. A much higher share price would also give management more strength at the bargaining table when cutting JV deals with any majors. My recommendation would be not to entertain any deals for the early gold production opportunities at least until the production rates have increased and then plateau’d out.
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Thanks for all of this brecciaboy… I put both of your posts from this morning into a cereal bowl and poured milk over them and then spooned them down one tasty bite at a time, and I’m not sure whether my bigger jolt came from your posts or from my strong coffee.
Any chance you could bake up and deliver a tray of these every morning – let’s say around, oh, 9:30-ish?
– madmen
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Yes, I do respect that his hands are tied right now and that above all he must be loyal to his principals. Him saying that we’d “know more” later on seems to indicate that there is indeed SOMETHING to know.
I’m not smart enough about mining, so I don’t know, but I wonder if our guys are maybe in somewhat of a BOX for some reason; for example, if one COMMENCES development of this district in one way or the other, does it thereafter foreclose different approaches? Deep versus surface/open pit? There must be something that is slowing them down. Are they simply pitching the district for one giant JV with three or four companies and one of them has said that if we start producing the Caren then it would spoil the deal? A couple years back we were on the cusp of production, then it is halted for safety reasons, and then we hear NOTHING for a couple of years. If I had made a promise and then was required by governmental authorities to make some safety fixes, I think I’d be resolved to show my shareholders that I am a man of my word (e.g. 25,000 ounces per year, etc.) and would be constantly updating them on this particular issue. Integrity. Admittedly, the safety fixes might have taken some time to complete (finally completed this past December?). But I would have been updating my shareholders all along as to status on the fixes and then most certainly when it was completed. Yet, we hear nothing. My opinion, something else is going on (which our guys are not free to discuss or even disclose) - and I’m just not knowledgeable enough to be able to put together the other possibilities. Considering the investment of our guys into the company to the tune of many millions of shares and at 5-10 cents per share (a few admittedly at about 1.5 cents from Quijano), Hochschild already buying into it, and the number of hectares involved, my bet is it is something very positive. I will definitely be looking forward to the day I no longer have to speculate as to these issues.
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From the first quarter AUMC financial statements. Note 4, Related party transactions:
The Company holds a mining option contract with a related party. During the year ended December 31, 2019, 10,568,309 Chilean Pesos or approximately $13,610 USD was paid by that related party to the Chileangovernment to maintain the mining concessionsmentioned in Note 4. These funds will not be refunded by the Company and are nolongerpayables of the Company and have therefore been excluded from the income statement for the three monthsended March 31, 2020
What is this mining option contract? I assume the related party is Masglas.
Does Masglas have an option to purchase all or some part of the ADL? Seems that they do since the monies paid to the Chilean government to maintain the claims for AUMC are not refundable.
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I think your thoughts might be very prescient. A few years back, one of our neighbors to the north had some underground operations. Later their engineers told management that this project would be more economic if we changed over to bulk mining methodologies via an open pit operation. This cost them a couple of years of delays from SERNAGEOMIN from a permitting point of view because it is dangerous to excavate an open pit over and through existing adits and tunnels.
My ”Doesn’t quite make sense list” currently has on it: Why is Hochschild so quiet? They did a 6 line-kilometer IP/IR study and then the “cone of silence” descended. Were they told to stand down for a bit until the final attack plan was drafted? What did their IP’s reveal? Recall that Hochschild reviewed all of the previous drill cores from the LDM before signing the JV. They also channel sampled the 2 existing adits there BEFORE SIGNING THE JV. The IP results aren’t something that after they came in Hochschild would decide to walk away. No, they’re designed to confirm and add to the adit channel sampling and to prioritize drill targets. Noticed that we did not hear that Hochschild walked but most JVs have a scheduled work commitment wherein the optionee has to do “X” amount of exploration tasks over “Y” timeframe. Recall that Hochschild was going to follow the Sillitoe-designed attack plan and Bustamante over at Hochschild made a comment to the press that “the geology over at the LDM IS PRETTY INTERESTING.
Note that the deposit style that Hochschild is going after is a “Lacustrine sediment hosted stratabound copper deposit”. There is a very well-defined “belt” of these deposits that extends north of and south of the ADL. To the north is the El Soldado mega mine operated by 4 majors: Anglo American, Codelco, Mitsubishi and Mitsui. To the immediate south of us is the Lo Aguirre Mine. THERE THE ENGINEERS DECIDED THAT AN OPEN PIT ATTACK WAS THE PROPER WAY TO GO.
At the eastern ADL plateau there is a large confluence of epithermal veins near the Merlin 3 Vein and some of the various Fortuna Veins. Management already told us that this might be open pittable.
My “Doesn’t quite make sense” list also includes: what the heck happened over at the Pegaso Nero? The hyperspectral imaging satellite survey revealed “about a dozen” intrusives over a 7 Km stretch aligned in a SW to NE orientation across the southern downslope off of the plateau. OK, I get it, it’s big. The ridge crest sampling along the westernmost extent of this swath revealed high grade moly and copper OVER A 3.6 KM NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED SWATH. OK, the westernmost intrusive of the “about a dozen” is loaded and VERY BIG.
There are about 6 ridge crests descending down from the plateau in this 7 Km swath. Management told us they were going to head east and explore the other ridge crests. Then crickets! If the easternmost of those ridge crests had similar results over similar distance then the inference (subject to being verified by drilling) would be the existence of a 7 Km by 3.6 Km MASSIVE RECTANGLE of goodies. Type 21 A (Singer/Cox classification) Cu-Mo porphyry deposits, the largest subdivision of these elephantine deposits known as “porphyries”, are almost always open-pitted.
Note that the original attack plan at the Caren was to produce from 3 different “production adits” simultaneously, while drifting a “crosscut exploration adit” from west to east under the plateau. You don’t want to do the crosscut adit if an open pit is a possibility. The baseline environmental study is already done. It was done by IAL Ambiental.
Other “list” components include how to value Medinah’s $40 to $50 million tax loss carryforward. Junior explorers do nothing but raise and spend money, A LOT OF MONEY IN THE CASE OF SUCCESSFUL FUND RAISERS. This is a huge bonus for those lucky enough to go into production. From what I can glean, these assets are transferable to other companies in the same business especially if they’re working on the same project. One of Raul’s communications contained the phrase “a full legal opinion” was being waited on. When I read that I immediately thought that the “full” phraseology might have referred to the AUMC share distribution as well as the fate of the tax loss carryforwards but I do not know this to be a fact.
For me, this entire scenario has been a gigantic exercise in TRUST YOUR GUT. I did not trust my gut when it came to Aurelian’s Fruta del Norte deposit and I got “Masuched”!
Here’s a link to Don Singer’s masterpiece on pretty much every porphyry deposit on the planet:
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Hi Z,
My gut is that this is a “poison pill” to fend off any hostile takeover attempts. The payment for this “option” might have been Masglas/AHC picking up the tab on expenses up to a certain amount. I think this because we had not heard about this until recently and if it was designed to protect shareholders from a hostile attack then I don’t think management would be forced to disclose its exact contents for obvious reasons. Maurizio’s ownership position would also be a pretty solid “poison pill”. One of my paranoias is that somebody is going to try to steal this thing. Maurizio certainly doesn’t want to sell shares at this level in order to pay bills. He owns his own law firm and I sense that he’s pretty up to speed on these legal matters.
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Thanks Doc. Appreciate your insight.
As you mentioned, with Maurizio and his wife having ultimate control it would be hard/impossible for a theft.
Since one of the big unkowns is the money behind Masglas, might it be possible that they have put themselves in a position of right of first refusal as regards the ADL. If the mountain plays out the way we think they get the first shot at it.
I agree with you that if this is a real option then it probably would have had to be disclosed at least on AUMC side since they are public.
Lots of questions. Hopefully lots of answers soon!
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Masglas website states they are the controlling owner of AUMC yet the OTC website ownership section for AUMC does not indicate Masglas at all. Auryn Holdings control the 5,000 preferred shares with 1,000 to 1 voting rights. Maurizio and wife are the only other two significant shareholders besides MDMN.
???
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Yep, my gut is driving the bus for me too. I know what it looks like when a company is swirling down the bankruptcy drain, and this just doesn’t fit.
Thanks very much for the constant guidance - I wouldn’t know a fraction of what I know about this without you around.
Can you imagine an investment world where you could make decisions based on what management/Maurizio wants? He wants to become a mid-tier gold producer. I want to live on a yacht and be fed grapes. I can’t tell you which outcome is more likely but I can tell you that Maurizio has been desperately looking for financing on many different projects just like 1000’s of other, undercapitalized companies/individuals have during this challenging period for the precious metals.
I would argue this was one of the worst bear markets in history. Until recently. The market is considerably better which means the cost of capital has become “cheaper” but is still very limited to those projects with undefined resources.
If gold trades at $5000oz everything is going to come into play. The question you need to ask yourself: am I better investing in a late stage development/early stage producer which will go up 10-20x with $5000 gold or should I speculate on an investment with no visibility re: dilution. In other words, if you own 1% of MDMN now what will that percentage be post financing? I have no idea which makes the decision pretty easy.
I will definitely be buying the book “Anatomy of a 30-bagger” but I’ll be skipping to the chapter that discusses losing 97% of one’s investment, and then getting a 30-bagger, to break even on a 20 year investment. This would be the chapter that most of us could probably find both relevant and informative.
It’s always fun to speculate and even average down but, as even BB admits, it probably makes sense to understand what you own before throwing good money after bad. There are a ton of stocks to play with, that actually go up with the price of gold, if you are generally bullish on precious metals.
All IMHO.
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In my opinion, DILUTION is not a dirty word. In this industry, a junior explorer wants to be that proverbial 1-in-1,000 junior that makes a discovery which is going to need funding to put into production. Of course, it’s going to involve DILUTION. Post-financing, an investor is typically going to own a smaller percentage of a MUCH MORE VALUABLE entity. Similarly, in a JV situation, the shareholders are going to have their ownership percentage in the overall property (not share structure) be DILUTED in exchange for money spent by the major and the gaining of the expertise of the major.
There is no corporate event in the genesis of a mining company which PREDICTABLY increases VALUE more than putting a mineral discovery into production and joining that 1-in-1,000 club. In essence, the GOAL of a junior explorer is to sacrifice the DILUTION associated with going into production in exchange for a much larger percentage increase in VALUE. The flip side of that coin is that the DILUTION associated with raising money to go explore for a deposit and take on those incredibly distant odds is often NOT good DILUTION.
My investment thesis in this sector, which has been evolving through the years, is WAIT for a junior to irrefutably PROVE the bona fides of any perceived DISCOVERY. How do you do that? You wait for the junior to put it into production. Any financier that agrees to do the funding is going to be a lot smarter than you or I. Let the financier do your due diligence. The SWEET SPOT in any investment is getting in right before any jump in VALUE occurs. In this particular sector, the biggest jump in VALUE occurs right as the lucky explorers go into production.
Maurizio is the largest shareholder in Medinah, Cerro, Masglas, AUMC and Auryn Holding Corp. This is the ideal when the financial goals of management align tightly with that of the small shareholders. He would be the biggest victim of any untoward DILUTION.
IS MAURIZIO REALLY ABOUT TO SCREW THE MEDINAH SHAREHOLDERS AS HAS BEEN SUGGESTED ON THIS FORUM?
Maurizio has had all of the opportunity in the world to screw the Medinah shareholders but he chose not to. Why would he start now when his percentage ownership in AUMC is somewhere around 73% when he chose not to screw Medinah when his ownership percentage was only 10 to 20%? Don’t confuse the DILUTION associated with raising funds to go into production with the DILUTION associated with raising funds to go explore.
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CASE IN POINT: I got into ELYGF at about 28 cents, and then [Uncle Eric] Sprott did a private financing for us, complete with warrants at a very cheap price, and diluting the living you-know-what out of us - now the stock is selling for 1.30’ish and has some $20 Million in the bank for more royalty deals, with the CEO saying he’s gunning for Royal Gold/Franco-Nevada status. So no, dilution is not always bad.
Personally I believe MDMN is way down but only for artificial reasons - the company has had NO NEWS for two years, radio silence, so that’s what we would expect. I still believe MDMN will come back, and in a big way. Having averaged down to about 1.2 cents per share, I’m confident that Maurizio, et al, will generate a nice profit for me. Do we really think Maurizio is in this to lose?
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Yes. This would be a good example of healthy dilution. I know ELY pretty well and they have been around almost as long as RGLD/FNV but clearly not quite as successful. They seem to make good investments which buy them time to add to the royalty portfolio (as they are sold). Sprott has been a bit “loose” as of late but his endorsement of ELY has clearly helped the optics.
In the case of AUMC dilution will be a bit more tricky given that the current market cap most likely exceeds what it will cost to get into production (even bulk testing 5,000 tpd which has a lighter permitting load). This will be Mauriziio’s big challenge. I’m not in a position to speculate what is in his best interest but his current ownership really isn’t relevant. Yes, he has a lot of skin in the game (~70%) but, depending on his level of “greed” he can easily own 100%, 90%, pick a number with the next capital raise. Let’s not forget that he took a larger percentage with the last capital call. Maybe he’s feeling philanthropic in his older age and investors here can elect to bet on this altruism. However, this is a necessary consideration when buying shares. Claiming that he and family and friends already own shares in broken public vehicles has no relevancy on the path forward. When you have control of a company that needs money you have complete discretion on the recapitalization. This is not an opinion but rather a truism to how the capital markets operate.
Thank you for your input and opinion. Believe it or not, I do value what you have to say - as I do the opinions of others. Really.
On the skin in the game not being relevant, I guess one would have to believe that Maurizio won’t mind seeing his family and friends (some of whom have reputedly invested here) go down the tubes. You probably know things that I do not (I think you sold out a year or so ago), but I’m not there … yet. I was not one of those early investors in Aurelian’s Fruta Del Norte who got out too early, but I can appreciate the wisdom of those who got “schooled” by making the mistake of not seeing the writing that was clearly on the wall. No, I have been bent over the chair before by other junior exploration companies, such as Plexmar Resources, Logan Resources, et al, and so have a … different … experience. Thank you sir, may I have another. Frankly, at one point I swore I’d never invest in another junior explorer. But, I see things different with MDMN. Hochschild decided to get involved, and I think they know more than me, you, and brecciaboy put together, times 10,000. Other mining professionals have put their seal of approval on the ADL as well. The claims have all been put together. Potential immediate production. Many, many hectares of potential mineralization. Hyperspectral imaging and the interpretation thereof by Sepulveda-Perez, a known expert. To each his own. Hope you get back on board in time to make some coin.
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Nice to see Gold hit $1800 8.5 year high
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