Auryn/Medinah - 2020 - 1st Half General Discussion

I do see that the price spiked in that price range ( .07-.10 ) between 5/30/14 and 8/30/14.

Good questions Madmen.

I realize that many of my posts, countering “Docs” comments, seem like petty nitpicking. However, it’s very important to keep in mind that his posts have a recurring theme that never seem to grasp the difference b/w a potentially valuable asset vs. shares in MDMN/AUMC.

It’s always fun to talk about MDMN graduating to a mid-tier miner, buying back shares, etc. but it’s very important to understand that MDMN is still an early stage exploration play with NO defined resource.

What’s more concerning is the complete lack of transparency into the capital structure. Yes, gold rallying $500oz could be “leverage” but the share price dropping 99% nullifies any benefits. At the end of the day, AUMC/MDMN will need to spend a minimum of $10M to advance towards a small scale mining project and this will have a painful, deleterious, massively dilutive impact on current shareholders. This is an unavoidable fact and, even more concerning, Doc continues to pump this stock (and I would agree bring in new buying) based on comments from Maurizio three years ago.

Why not call him today and get an actual update on what is transpiring? I’d argue this is a more productive use of one’s time vs. writing new “chapters” in what most now be a 1000+ page novel that will never be read.

Clearly different opinions but that’s what makes a market.

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It happened right around when Letts joined the Medinah BOD

Yes, the 6/30/14 MDMN update is announcement of the sale of 85% of the ADL to Auryn for $100million. Which would be a value of $118million for the entire ADL. Letts was to become the CEO for the newly formed company.

So it appears that family and friends started buying MDMN at the end of May 2014 through August 2014.

1.5billion shares outstanding at .07/share is $105million. Right in line with what they were paying.

So we know way back in 2014 they placed the value of the ADL at $100million+. And now its market value is $14million. Yes, a major disconnect!!!

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Hi Brad/madmen,

I admit that I do things a little bit differently than many. I’m a detail freak. When I come upon a subject matter that excites me, I pretty much go all in during the due diligence process. I like to look at all of the data points I can come upon and first of all make a list of the things that DON’T MAKE SENSE. If I can’t get them to makes sense then I don’t walk away, I run away. If I can get them to make sense, then I simply cross them off of my list. Since the things that DON’T MAKE SENSE represent a RISK to me, as they are crossed off the list the RISK/REWARD ratio becomes more favorable at least for me.

With Medinah/AUMC the DOESN’T MAKE SENSE list got longer and longer. For instance, Dick Sillitoe finds something of interest in his due diligence on the ADL and agrees to fly over from London (at about 80 years of age) and spend 4-5 days on site. My brain is doing cartwheels while the market is downticking. Hmmmmmh. I studied Auryn’s trenching results on the epithermals-5,000 lineal meters of epi’s that made it all of the way to surface AMIDST A GIANT SWATH OF KAOLINATE, SMECTITE AND ILLITE CLAYS i.e. THE ARGILLIC ALTERATION THAT OVERLAYS MANY OREBODIES. This time my body is doing cartwheels (admittedly not very good ones). Once again the market downticks. Hmmmmmmh.

I studied the RIDGE CREST SURFACE SAMPLING at the PN-high-grade copper and moly RIGHT AT SURFACE. I’m thinking holy cow, a Cu-Mo porphyry right under the surface. I remembered an article by none other than Sillitoe describing how the average copper porphyry resides about 2.5 Km under the surface and this one appears to be right at surface. I also recalled Don Singer’s research citing that the Cu-Mo porphyries were the behemoths of these elephant-sized deposit types. Once again, the market reaction was yet more downticking.

I recall Dr. Ray Jannas’ excitement when he did a Re/Os dating of the ore at the Pegaso Nero. It came in at the same age as the most productive copper porphyry in all of Chile’s Early Cretaceous Porphyry Copper Belt i.e. the Andacollo Mine to our north. I’m thinking, holy cow, this famous belt extends below the Llahuin deposit which everybody thought was this belt’s southern extent. Yet again, the market’s reaction was a downtick. Clearly there was some type of DISCONNECT that had developed between REALITY from a geological point of view and share price. The explanation ended up being CORPORATE PARALYSIS i.e. the type you might experience when only 5% of your (AUMC’s) shares are free-trading.

From an investment point of view, I want to buy when the proverbial “blood is running in the streets” as long as the company has the goods. WHERE I DIFFER IS I WANT TO KNOW WHY THE BLOOD IS FLOWING IN THE STREETS AND WHY THE SHAREHOLDERS ARE SO FRUSTRATED. I NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE BONA FIDES OF THE ASSETS.

Once I became comfortable with the concept of corporate paralysis due to that 5% issue things started to gel. My DOESN’T MAKE SENSE list started to shrink. Good news induces downticking, no news induces downticking and during a time period of 2 ½ years of pretty much no news voila!, you have a 99.7% drop in the share price. THIS 2 ½ YEAR PERIOD OF TIME DUE TO A 1 YEAR “RESTRICTION PERIOD”, ANOTHER 1 YEAR DUE TO MEDINAH BEING AN “AFFILIATE” UNDER RULE 144 AND A 5 MONTH PERIOD OF WAITING FOR “THE APPROPRIATE TIME” IS VERY, VERY ATYPICAL. IN MY MIND, THIS IS THE STORY HERE. It’s the combination of excellent geology and corporate paralysis and the corporate paralysis wins. The blood flowing in the streets makes perfectly good sense and it has nothing to do with the bona fides of the mineral assets.

In my investment philosophy, it’s all about THE PROXIMITY OF POSITIVE CASH FLOW. The sweet spot in this sector is a junior about to go into production with good economics. I no longer am interested in buying a junior miner that needs to raise money to go exploring. The odds are prohibitive against being a success. I want high-grade, near surface gold production opportunities THAT CAN GO INTO PRODUCTION QUICKLY ESPECIALLY WHEN GOLD IS ON THE MOVE. I don’t want to miss THIS CYCLE.

In my investment philosophy, there are a lot of undervalued junior mineral explorer/developers BUT THERE IS TYPICALLY A REASON WHY THEY ARE UNDERVALUED and if I can’t figure it out, I’m not going to buy their shares. One of my favorite mining analysts/geologists is Brent Cook. He has always taught his fans to LOOK FOR THE FATAL FLAWS in a junior explorer. There might be issues related to the depth of an orebody rendering it noneconomic-we don’t appear to have that and in fact quite to the contrary. There might be overwhelming geopolitical issues leading to the risk of expropriation. We don’t have that either. There might be metallurgical issues leading to lousy recovery. In the case of Medinah/AUMC, the ore is located close to surface, Chile is just fine from a geopolitical risk point of view and the recovery rates for the gold are over 90%.

In a Medinah/AUMC type of situation, I feel comfortable when I can VISUALIZE the pathway between trading in the “triple-0’s” and a developmental midpoint of producing 25,000 ounces of gold at an AISC of somewhere around $850 when gold is trading over $1,700. Do the math, it’s pretty compelling. I know that Maurizio wants to become a mid-tier producer producing a minimum of 300,000 ounces per annum. I won’t let my brain even go there, 25,000 ounces in the first year would be just fine.

In my humble opinion, the two main hurdles are distributing the AUMC shares and receiving the final draft of the mensura/production permit. That recent shareholder communique from Raul confirming management had permission to distribute the shares was a “cartwheel” moment. (I didn’t do one because I threw my back out back when the trenching results came in.) Since management already thought they had permission to go into production about 3 years ago, I’m going to guess that the completion of the 3 ventilation/safety manway “raises” amounts to a rubber stamp approval.

Have they completed the 3 “raises” yet? All I know is that in December of 2018 they made a PR stating that they were close to completing them. Nineteen months ago, they were close to completing them. Does it make sense that they can’t blast that news out UNTIL the AUMC shares are distributed? Yes, very much so. FINRA would have management for lunch if the share price of AUMC took off with only 5% of the shares in a free-trading format. I personally would go ballistic since my tiny ownership percentage of the ADL Mining District is still “packaged” in that train wreck of a corporate vehicle known as Medinah which appears to many potential investors as being on some type of corporate deathbed.

What I’ve found helpful in this industry is to learn the RISKS associated with this industry. Risk USUALLY matches reward. When a RISK gets mitigated check it off of your list and throw a unit of money at the market as long as the reward variable hasn’t changed. It’s similar to counting cards at blackjack. If you play BASIC STRATEGY real well, you’ll pretty much break even. If you scale up your bets when you KNOW you have an advantage you have a chance to make a buck.

Bringing this philosophy to the Medinah/AUMC scenario, if the developmental midpoint is reached via producing 25,000 ounces in year #1 of production, the REWARD variable has increased with the POG advancing nearly $500. In my experience, usually the REWARD variable is somewhat fixed. An investor with high risk aversion might want to wait until AFTER the shares are distributed and the production permit is in hand. Your RISK will be a lot less but I sense that there might be plenty of REWARD available.

Most of my musings might apply more to new investors. The older investors that have been put through the grinder already don’t want to have too much of their portfolio in what still amounts to be a SPECULATIVE stock. If you have a roof over your head and a full stomach at night, you’re doing better than many in the world.

Brad-

I think you sensed that this project has been going for awhile and it indeed has. I wrote/am writing a book entitled “Anatomy of a 30-bagger”. It’s something I wanted to get down in writing before anything started in the market. It’s got way too much geo-gibberish for most readers. The one thing about geology is it is a very honest discipline. Mother Nature tends to work in certain ways which has led to the creation of “models” by some very smart geoscientists.

In my own experience, I found myself on the ground floor of what is now a major miner. I was by no means the brains of the operation only a diligent follower. My mentors in this project were the visionaries. I see an awful lot of them in Maurizio. Maurizio has surrounded himself with the best of the best. It’s tough to put your finger on but there’s an intangible there wherein certain people just get the job done time after time. It’s all about HUMAN CAPITAL. Just look at Sillitoe’s resume. There haven’t been that many major discoveries that he did NOT play a role in. This brings up another point. If his report says what I think it does, and it gets released to the mining investment world than this could be a significant event.

AN EXERCISE I’D SUGGEST PEOPLE DO

Go to your favorite stock chart website and pull up a 10-year chart on Medinah. An “interactive” chart would be preferable wherein when you scroll left to right or up and down the lines can be moved. The goal is to keep in mind what corporate paralysis is all about at the same time you can VISUALIZE a 30-bagger. The graph shows you a “cliff dive” followed by “bouncing along the bottom of the river” like an anchor being dragged. THE BOTTOM OF THE RIVER IS PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO THE $0.0001 LEVEL WHICH IS AS LOW AS THE OTC MARKETS WILL QUOTE. The serious money is made in retracing the “tail” of this graph.

Notice that you haven’t got anywhere near the previous highs which I don’t think will ever happen. It doesn’t have to happen. This is what a 30-bagger looks like after 2 ½ years of corporate paralysis during which the share price did nothing but downtick no matter what geological achievements were accomplished. You can see why the investing public would steer clear and not try to “catch the falling knife”. It’s tough to juxtapose this graph with a graph of the actual value of the mineral assets based upon geological data and the performance of the price of gold. This tough to imagine juxtaposition is the product of 2 ½ years of corporate paralysis in which the share price was placed on an elevator stuck in the “down” position NO MATTER WHAT THE POG WAS DOING OR HOW CLOSE TO GOLD PRODUCTION THE COMPANY WAS.

If after removing the reason for a 99.7% drop in the share price (the corporate paralysis) that occurred as the asset values actually increased, the share price will start to RETRACE ITS PRIOR PATH. If you start at the recent lows of about $0.0004 and retrace backwards in time a 30-bagger (2,900% gain) would bring you to the $0.012 level reached on about 9/26/16.

Part of the “supercharging” of this retracement process has to do with what happened on Nov. 1 of 2019 when the stock dropped from $0.0016 to $0.0005 IN 5 MINUTES ON A FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT AT THE CLOSE OF TRADING. This mini-cliff dive is not going to have to “backfill” during the retracement process. It could and perhaps is happening with very low volume.

A SECOND EXERCISE TO CONSIDER DOING IN ORDER TO GET A FEELING FOR THE STRENGTH OF CORPORATE PARALYSIS

Take that same 10-year share price performance graph and label it with the significant achievements obtained to date on the date they were achieved. You might include Dr. Jannas’ Re/Os dating discovery, the trenching results, the ridge crest sampling results, the extension of the brecciated area to the south and west via drilling, etc. Medinah/Auryn could have had a drill intercept through the basement of Fort Knox and it would still result in a downtick.

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Nice summation

From a Bloomberg multi story news feed:

Chile Mine Death Prompts Vigilance (6:10 a.m. HK)

Chile, the top copper-producing nation, is increasing supervision to ensure mines comply with Covid-19 safety measures after a worker died at state-owned Codelco’s Chuquicamata division.

So far, Codelco has continued operating, adopting safety measures without stalling output. Chile’s mining industry had been helped by relatively low nationwide rates of illness. But now, the South American country reports thousands of cases daily, pushing hospitals toward collapse and prompting authorities to tighten restrictions.

As Raul’s email indicated, things are happening in the background that will help us all get some real liquidity and get this going in the right direction. It will take some time, especially given the C19 shutdown in Latin America. However, this story is not over. Also, with the Fed having unleashed trillions, I think we’re looking at the early stages of a major bull market in Gold which will help us!

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Hey Wiz… nice to hear from you and Doc!
Thanks for keepin the faith for all of us…

Perhaps some of the answer is associated with much of Chile’s altitude. Anyway, a recent correlation seems to exist between higher altitudes and lower rates of COVID-19 infection. Will it help the mining sectors in the higher altitudes get started back sooner than in the low land areas?

Living on higher altitudes may reduce chances of catching coronavirus

Researchers have found that populations living in higher altitudes, especially 3,000 meters (9,842 feet) above the sea level significantly report lower levels of coronavirus infections than their lowland counterparts.
… The Washington Post cited one peer-reviewed study, published in the journal Respiratory Physiology and Neurobiology, in which researchers from Australia, Bolivia, Canada and Switzerland looking at epidemiological data from Bolivia, Ecuador and Tibet found that Tibet’s infection rate was “drastically” lower than that of lowland China, three times lower in the Bolivian Andes than in the rest of the country and four times lower in the Ecuadoran Andes.
… The researchers hypothesize that populations living at high altitudes might be benefiting from a combination of an ability to cope with hypoxia (low levels of oxygen in the blood) and a natural environment hostile to the virus – including dry mountain air, high levels of UV radiation and the possibility that lower barometric pressure reduces the virus’s ability to linger in the air, the media reported further.
Living on higher altitudes may reduce chances of catching coronavirus | Travel - Hindustan Times

THE CURRENT “MEDINAH”-UP UNTIL RECENTLY ONE GIGANTIC BALL OF RISK

Thankfully, Medinah is currently a mere “holding company” with no operations of its own. It pretty much has no monthly burn rate after “going dark” with the OTCMarketPlace (no accounting fees) as well as with the SOS of Nevada (no annual registration fees). Medinah is basically a safe deposit box with an AUMC stock certificate in it representing a 24% ownership stake in AUMC. AUMC owns 100% of the ADL Mining District.

Up until recently, this AUMC stock certificate sitting within the safety deposit box had a restrictive legend on it rendering it illiquid for 12 months. That restrictive legend is now gone and any RISK in running into problems in removing that legend have been mitigated. Because any 24% owner of AUMC by definition is an “affiliate” of AUMC as per Rule 144 of the 1933 Securities Act, this stock certificate had a secondary restriction from becoming liquid. This involved yet another 12-month period during which the certificate was illiquid. This second waiting period ended on December 15, 2019. The regulators have since approved of the distribution of these shares to the Medinah shareholders in a pro rata fashion. Any RISK involving the regulators not allowing this distribution is also now removed and management has confirmed that the shares will indeed be distributed “at the appropriate time”. Two critical RISKS are now in the rearview mirror. These two risks would be categorized as being “corporate risks”. Recall from Chapter 2, the need to recognize the RISKS associated with an investment in this industry so that you can recognize when it has been successfully mitigated. The RISK/REWARD ratio is a very dynamic metric.

For about the last 2 ½ years, Medinah’s share price and market cap had to trade at a steep DISCOUNT to whatever value investors would ascribe to a 24% share interest in the ADL. This is because in the process of removing the necessity for Medinah to pay the substantial fees associated with filing quarterly financials with the OTCMarketPlace as well as statutory fees payable to the Secretary of State of Nevada the APPEARANCE of Medinah became that of a corporation on its deathbed. This was a very smart move with definite untoward consequences IN THE SHORT RUN UP UNTIL THE AUMC SHARES ARE DISTRIBUTED.

This “corporate deathbed” APPEARANCE is because corporations about to become insolvent also go through these two steps but for differing reasons. To the market, Medinah’s saving money doesn’t count as a plus. The APPEARANCE is the APPEARANCE and investors need to apply probability statistics to investment decisions. The statistics say that a corporation presenting this APPEARANCE is probably about to become insolvent, PERIOD.

Thus, the market had to apply a “potential deathbed” DISCOUNT to any perceived value of a 24% stake in the ADL. Note that this DISCOUNT has nothing whatsoever to do with the actual value of a 24% stake in the ADL. This DISCOUNT was a tradeoff for a cashless corporation to be able to get its monthly burn rate to near zero. This circumvented the need to sell shares at the all time low in Medinah’s share price history. Besides, Medinah’s outstanding number of shares was bumping its head on the authorized share cap. This move had to be made and this APPEARANCE had to be presented to the market.

Theoretically, this DISCOUNT should have evaporated when management recently confirmed that the AUMC share distribution was cleared by the regulators. Can you imagine the chaos avoided if for some reason the AUMC shares paid for Medinah’s share of the ADL couldn’t be released to Medinah and its shareholders? This possibility was part of the need for a DISCOUNT.

Over and above this “potential deathbed discount”, the Medinah share price and market cap was suffering from a different burden. This one is associated with the corporate paralysis a management team experiences when only 5% of its shares are in a free-trading status. No serious investor is going to buy AUMC shares when there is a 100% spread between the bid and the ask. Existing shareholders, like the ex-Cerro shareholders, can’t sell their shares without knocking out bids and new investors can’t buy a decent block of AUMC shares without chasing the share price up. The liquidity in AUMC is currently paralyzed. The same is true of Medinah but to a lesser extent.

Recall from Auryn’s 12/15/17 press release about the purposes for the Cerro transaction: “To provide liquidity to these companies (Medinah and Cerro) and give their shareholders direct ownership in the underlying asset.” The market is currently exacting a “lack of liquidity” DISCOUNT on both Medinah and AUMC until the AUMC shares are distributed and liquidity as well as “tighter spreads” between the bid and the ask can be restored.

So, the question becomes, how much was the TOTAL DISCOUNT that the market had to render to the share price and market cap of Medinah below the perceived value of a 24% stake in the ADL. The TOTAL DISCOUNT would be the arithmetic sum of the “lack of liquidity” discount, the “corporate deathbed appearance” DISCOUNT, the “potential inability to remove the restrictive legend” DISCOUNT and the “potential for the regulators to not allow the AUMC share distribution” DISCOUNT. We’ll only be able to learn this perhaps 2 weeks or so after the shares are distributed and the dust settles. Theoretically, the removal of all of these various RISKS should have been accompanied by a tiny bump in Medinah’s share price but when confusion reigns the markets are not going to be very EFFICIENT.

Management, that has been working with FINRA closely to address the AUMC share unrestricting, allocation and distribution, cannot act in a promotional capacity without risking censure by the regulators. Management can’t raise money in the markets because nobody knows where the share price is going to land once all of the dust settles.

If the AUMC share price can’t be looked upon as a fair gauge of the actual value of a 100% stake in the ADL due to the paralysis and these various RISKS, what does an investor use to judge the appropriate share price and market cap of Medinah? It’s a mess! In a confusing scenario like this, the obvious solution would be to estimate the value of the ADL in a DIRECT fashion by studying the exploration and development results to date. When all of these confusing DISCOUNTS are gone, about all we’re going to have left is the geology and in the case of Medinah/AUMC the projected earnings from their near-term gold production opportunities. Before you sharpen your pencils, first we want to get corroboration from management that the production permit is either in place or imminent and the projections from before are still valid or have changed to the upside.

Thankfully, rendering a valuation for a gold producer is fairly straight forward. It’s much easier than studying geo-jibberish and making speculations. Gold producers tend to trade at certain multiples of earnings per share. These are higher than the EPS multiples of base metal producers. They also trade at certain multiples of cash flow, NAV (usually 1.8 to 2.25 times), NPV, cash dividend flow, PEG ratio, etc. Finally, the Medinah/AUMC shareholders will be in a position to apply some acceptable business metrics.

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You sound pretty confident AUMC management will be moving soon. I’ve actually been chasing my tail on this one pretty good in order to lower my cost per share in hopes that we hit .01 one day, but I don’t know …

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Bids are coming up!

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It’s very interesting.

Hi mrb,

I think that as the share price gradually moves up, the “lack of liquidity” DISCOUNT will lessen as the “spreads” tighten. There’s nothing worse than a 40% spread in Medinah or a 100% spread in AUMC. I sense that the big money will be made early on in the retracement process once people realize that the “corporate deathbed” APPEARANCE was more of an illusion than a reality. “Going dark” with the OTCMarketPlace and with the Secretary of State of Nevada was a necessity. The “corporate deathbed” APPEARANCE was an illusion.

No corporation owning a 24% stake in the epithermal gold near term production opportunities is going to go belly up. No corporation owning a 24% stake in the Pegaso Nero, the LDM, the breccia deposits, the skarns and who knows what else they’ve found by now is going to go belly up. This is especially true in an environment in which new discoveries are pretty much nil and the majors with dwindling MR/MR on their balance sheets are getting a little nervous. This scenario isn’t going to change any time soon as the exploration budgets of the majors are going down and many of the junior explorers are having trouble raising funds.

Kevin brought up the Covid-19 scenario. Chilean mining has survived this pretty well. With all of the resultant shut downs in the U.S. the Fed had no option but to hand out free money right and left. This virus hit us at a time in which DEBT LOADS were already out of control but it was this or wipe out the economy big time. I think this one event (the pandemic) is going to separate the mining community into two factions. There are those with gold opportunities and those without gold opportunities. In the camp of those miners with gold opportunities, there will be two sub-factions. There will be those with near term production opportunities and those without near term production opportunities. Those with near term gold production opportunities are going to be in very short supply but HIGHLY sought after. If you factor in very high-grade gold located relatively close to surface in favorable geopolitical environs the supply will tighten up even more.

The necessary response to the pandemic (helicopters dropping cash) will keep a bid under gold for a LONG time to come. If production goes well, I personally hope Maurizio might at least consider PHYSICAL GOLD DIVIDENDS in an environment like this but we need to cross one bridge at a time.

What I’m curious to see is how much Medinah can be bought in between these levels and maybe a penny or so. The average shareholder needs somewhere around a 10-bagger just to break even. If a frustrated shareholder has not sold his shares yet after all she or he have been through then I would assume that they want to either break even or at least get a lot closer to breaking even before selling.

Thus, I sense that we could hit an air pocket during the share retracement process at any time from here on out. Soon management is going to be forced to go from “don’t you dare promote” mode to “we have to promote the heck out of this thing” mode soon. When he is sitting at the bargaining table discussing a Pegaso Nero JV with a major or two, if he had a big fat share price then he would gain a lot of leverage. The CAPEX for a project of that scale is going to be huge.

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Up another 64 percent currently…

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wow…

history will show you 100’s of examples of companies, with defined resources, transparent capital structures, trading on normal exchanges, with 100% ownership of very large near-term production opportunities going belly up all of the time.

I’m not saying that will be the case here but this type of commentary is exactly what sucks people into these types of highly speculative investments. The main challenges here are clearly advancing the resource into at least an inferred category and then finding financing that doesn’t break the company’s back and/or dilute exist shareholders into oblivion. This is not an easy task when you have the “mother ship” (AUMC) trading with a $12-$15M market cap (MDMN’s stake worth under $3M). It’s also very difficult to secure affordable capital without a PFS.

I would agree that AUMC trades way too thin to provide an accurate picture for valuation but it’s important to keep in mind that this is the vehicle that will need to issue shares to finance any efforts towards production. I don’t understand the logic behind AUMC trading higher post the distribution of shares unless there is some super secrete announcement the company is holding onto.

The key factor here to watch is AUMC (particularly b/c only 5% of the float is trading). If the price starts to move that would be the best indicator for things to come. IMHO

Is that you buying today Baldy?

AUMC up .0152 to.23 - so far today.

Ha. No not me but you gotta love that $10k can move any stock 80%. If I had to buy one it would be AUMC but I don’t have the stomach to re-enter the OTC arena when a company has $0.00 cash in the kitty.

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