IF YOU CAN UNDERSTAND âAISCâ, YOU CAN GET A MUCH BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT THIS INVESTMENT IS ALL ABOUT
Auryn management told us a while back that they had developed âDETAILED CASH FLOW MODELSâ for the DL2 Mine operation. They shared these with the funders but not with us. I imagine a lot of us are doing our own âback of the napkinâ cash flow projections.
When you do these you never have all of the information you need but one trick to use when you come upon a blank that you canât fill in, is to use industry standard norms/statistics to provide you with a âbridgeâ to cross over in order to advance your efforts with other information you do have at your disposal. One of the key variables you need to estimate is, of course, ALL IN SUSTAINING COSTS or âAISCâ. We all know what the price of gold is but estimating the COST to produce each ounce of gold is more of a challenge. Since 2013, the World Gold Council has pretty much mandated that all COSTS in mining be reported on a âper ounce producedâ basis using âALL IN SUSTAINING COSTSâ or âAISCâ.
Whatâs nice about this is that we all have access to the 5 main categories of AISC, and we know that for the âaverageâ miner mining âaverageâ grade ore (4 gpt for underground vein miners), the worldwide average AISC is about $1,150 per ounce. We also know the approximate percentage of AISC that each of those 5 main categories represent.
The 5 categories of AISC COSTS are: ON-SITE CASH COSTS (we used to call these C-1, C-2, and C-3 cash costs), TRANSPORTATION COSTS, SUSTAINABILITY COSTS, GENERAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS (âG AND Aâ COSTS) and EXPLORATION COSTS.
The 2 big ones are ON-SITE CASH COSTS, averaging about 50% of AISC, and TRANSPORTATION COSTS which average about 20% of AISC. With this information you can fill in a lot of blanks when they appear. So, you start with the fact that a vein miner mining âaverageâ grade ore (4 gpt) will typically have an AISC of around $1,150 per ounce. This becomes your benchmark.
By far and away the most powerful parameter in estimating AISC and cash flow is GRADE. There is a very, very strong INVERSE relationship between GRADE and AISC. âVERY HIGH-GRADEâ vein deposits typically have VERY LOW AISC COSTS. Extremely HIGH-GRADE deposits, like the DL2 Mine, typically have EXTREMELY LOW AISC costs. The reason for this becomes very obvious when you keep in mind that all COSTS must now be reported on a âPER OUNCE PRODUCEDâ basis in the case of âON-SITE CASH COSTSâ or âPER OUNCE TRANSPORTEDâ in the case of TRANSPORTATION COSTS.
For example, in regard to TRANSPORTATION COSTS, it costs most miners about $500 to ship 20-tonnes of ore to the chosen destination point. Because there are 31.1 âgramsâ per Troy ounce of gold, a grade of 4 gpt represents about one-eighth of an ounce per tonne. Therefore, a 20-tonne truckload of 4 gpt gold ore will contain about 2.5 ounces of gold (1/8th ounce per tonne times 20-tonnes). In this case, the TRANSPORTATION COST PER OUNCE then becomes $500 per roundtrip truckload divided by 2.5 ounces of gold per truckload, or $200 per ounce transported. Remember this is for 4 gpt âaverage gradeâ gold ore. This $200 per ounce figure lines up closely with an average AISC of $1,150 and TRANSPORTATION COSTS averaging 20% of AISC as 20% of $1,150 equals about $230.
Without their own FF plant, if Auryn were to ship 25 gpt gold ore to Enami, there would be 500 âgramsâ of gold in that truckload (25 gpt times 20 tonnes). Since there are 31.1 grams per Troy ounce, this represents 16 Troy ounces of gold per truckload. Under these circumstances, Aurynâs AISC TRANSPORTATION COST would be $500 divided by 16 ounces equals $31 per ounce transported. Note that Auryn shipped about 6-times as many ounces as the âaverageâ miner for the same overall cost, therefore their cost PER OUNCE would be about one-sixth of the âaverageâ miner.
Now letâs suppose that Auryn gets their FF plant funded and that the FF plant further concentrates the original 25 gpt âgold equivalentâ (an estimate) ore by a factor of 4. This is the worldwide average âCONCENTRATION FACTORâ for an FF plant. Now Auryn is shipping a 100 gpt âFLOAT CONCENTRATEâ to the buyer. This represents (100 gpt times 20-tonnes equals=2,000 grams or 64 Troy ounces of gold per truckload) at the same $500 per truckload cost. Now the AISC COST PER OUNCE TRANSPORTED becomes $500 divided by 64 ounces equals $7.81 per ounce. Recall that the âaverageâ miner mining and shipping âaverageâ grade (4 gpt gold) ore paid about $200 per ounce or about 25-times as much âper ounceâ.
The math is pretty straight forward but very revealing. The Auryn ore was a little over 6-times as rich as the âaverageâ grade ore (25 gpt versus 4 gpt) and the FF plant further concentrated that already extremely high-grade ore another 4-fold. Equally important is that the average cost to froth float ore on-site is only $10 per tonne. Now you can see one reason why miners put in FF plants and why they pay for themselves so quickly.
As far as the ON-SITE CASH COSTS category of AISC goes, you donât get a 25-to-1 effect here because the FF process hasnât occurred yet. The ON-SITE CASH COSTS for Auryn would be about one-sixth that of the âaverageâ miner because the Auryn ore is about 6-times as rich (25 gpt versus 4 gpt). The âproductâ of the ON-SITE CASH COSTS is basically a wheel-loader with a bucket full of ore, or if you have your own FF plant, a truckload of âfloat concentrateâ.
It costs Auryn and the âaverageâ miner approximately the same amount to drill holes in the âworking faceâ of the adit, load the explosives, blast the âworking faceâ, scoop up the ore and deliver it to the portal to the adit. The labor, diesel, dynamite, electricity, wheel loaders, etc. all cost about the same. The key is that there are over 6-times as many ounces of gold in each Auryn bucket load than those of the âaverageâ miner. When it comes to ALL IN SUSTAINING COSTS, GRADE IS EVERYTHING AND SO TOO ARE MECHANIZATION ADVANCES LIKE INEXPENSIVE FF PLANTS THAT CAN MAGNIFY GRADES.
Profits are based on TOP LINE INCOME minus AISC. Whatâs interesting about GRADES in this equation is that GRADE is a primary determinant of BOTH TOP LINE INCOME AND IT IS ALSO A PRIMARY DETERMINANT OF AISC COST. So, high grades markedly increases the spread between the TOP LINE INCOME and the AISC, which is the PROFIT MARGIN.
In regard to the other 3 components of AISC: SUSTAINING COSTS, G AND A EXPENSES, AND EXPLORATION COSTS, I would suggest that these too are going to be extremely low for Auryn. âSUSTAINING COSTSâ refer to the necessity of major miners to replace on their balance sheets, via expensive diamond drilling, the ounces they mine annually. The majors need to show the world that they have plenty of âmine lifeâ and plenty of ounces of âMR/MRâ in the pipeline. Auryn doesnât have to drill one hole in this regard. Anybody can look at the 1,000-meter strike length of the DL2 Vein and 700-meter depth and conclude that Auryn is going to be busy mining this vein for a decade or so. After that comes the other 5 Main Veins which are part of Aurynâs âpipelineâ.
As far as âGENERAL AND ADMINISTRATIVEâ expenses (âG and Aâ), Auryn is not paying outlandishly high salaries to anybody. They have no corporate campuses to maintain. Maurizio owns 64% of the shares so it wouldnât make sense for him to pay a huge salary to himself.
In regard to âEXPLORATION COSTSâ, the need to âexploreâ in order to add projects into the âpipelineâ, again, Auryn has enough work cut out to keep them very busy mining extremely high-grade ore in the 6 Main Veins.
For me, whatâs scary about Auryn is the TIMING and the confluence of so many factors. GOING INTO EXTREMELY HIGH-GRADE PRODUCTION WITH ONLY 70 MILLION SHARES OUTSTANDING AND TWO-THIRDS OF THOSE âRESTRICTEDâ, AT A TIME WHEN THE POG IS AT ALL-TIME HIGHS, WITH AISCs PROBABLY IN THE LOWEST 10% OF ALL MINING OPERATIONS, IS JUST A BIT SCARY.
Make no mistake, there is a lot of work yet to do. Once the new FF plant has been functional for a month or so, we should have some cash flow projections from management. Iâm modeling an AISC of somewhere around $900 per ounce based on what I know to date. Once we get some data on ârecovery ratesâ and âconcentration factorâ numbers for the FF plant, weâll know a lot more. What I am really interested in acquiring is the âGRADE-RECOVERY CURVEâ for this plant. FF plant âconcentration factorsâ or âconcentration multiplesâ range from 2 to 20-times worldwide. I gave you the numbers for a 4-fold âconcentration factorâ hoping for a surprise to the upside.
As far as the projected 25 gpt âgold equivalentâ grade of the ore coming right out of the Antonino Adit, which represents the âore feed gradeâ, to date BOTH the GRADES and the WIDTH of the vein have increased nicely with depth. This means that not only is the mineralized ore sitting on the adit floor after a blast of a higher average grade, but there is also more of it. This is a very powerful combination if it continues.
If youâre having trouble picturing what is going on at the DL2 Mine, assume that the plateau surface has a giant watch dial on it. The DL2 Vein runs from NNW to SSE. This would represent from 11:00 to 5:00 through the center of the watch dial. The Antonino Adit was started at about the 2:00 position on the watch dial. It was directed towards the SSW and it intersected the DL2 Vein at the center point of the watch dial, essentially bisecting the DL2 Vein.
As the Antonino Adit was being constructed/âdriftedâ, it intersected about 24 mineralized âstructures/veins/faultsâ. A 48-tonne sampling of this material was taken for assay sampling and the results came back with an average grade of about 20 gpt âgold equivalentâ or about 5-times the average grade being mined in similar underground vein mining operations.
These various âstructuresâ ran in parallel to the DL2 vein i.e. from NNW to SSE. So, the adit basically went through the narrow width of these âstructuresâ which averaged about 0.5 to 1-meter. After going through a structure there was a stretch of about 20-meters of boring, somewhat sterile, host rock granodiorite. Picture these âstructuresâ as being colored light-yellow indicating mineralization of a certain nature. The host granodiorite would be colored white as it was nonmineralized. The 48-tonne sample would have been âcoloredâ a very faint yellow.
The grades of the DL2 Vein are heads and shoulders above that of the Antonino Adit. They averaged about 150 gpt at the intersection point of the adit and the DL2 Vein. Picture this ore as being âBRIGHT YELLOWâ in metaphorical âcolorâ. Upon intersecting the DL2 âBRIGHT YELLOWâ Vein, the geoscientists made a right-hand turn (to the NNE) and now their mining efforts are in solid âBRIGHT YELLOWâ ore for about 500-meters in length. At the intersection, they also made a left-hand turn (to the SSE). That branch of the adit is also mining âBRIGHT YELLOWâ ore, for many, many years to come.
Auryn will be doing this exact same type of mining at dozens of different levels below this new level 3, i.e. that of the Antonino Adit.
The days of going through a perhaps 1-meter width of vein material. As experienced in the Antonino Adit, are over. Itâs all âBRIGHT YELLOWâ ore from here on out. If you look at a âworking faceâ of these 2 adit branches at each level, the âBRIGHT YELLOWâ material will be in the center of the âworking faceâ of the adit. Its width might average about 1-meter or so at level 3 but it is getting wider with depth. To each side of this âBRIGHT YELLOWâ VEIN PROPER material will be a strip of less well-mineralized wall rock material that you should picture as being whitish in character.
Since the adit width is 3-meters, and the average width of the VEIN PROPER (containing the âBRIGHT YELLOWâ material) is about 1-meter, you need to divide the grade of the âBRIGHT YELLOWâ material by 3 to estimate the grade of the ore being mined on a daily basis. The 150 gpt average grade VEIN ONLY (âBRIGHT YELLOWâ) material now becomes about 50 gpt âgold equivalentâ ore of a âMODERATE YELLOWâ metaphorical color. ONE HUNDRED TONNES of this material gets âfedâ into the FF plant every morning as âORE FEEDâ. For the sake of conservatism, Iâm rounding down the expected average grade of this material from 50 gpt gold equivalent to 25 gpt gold equivalent in the interest of âMANAGING EXPECTATIONSâ. Itâs extremely difficult to assert that this material will âAVERAGEâ 50 GPT âgold equivalentâ when the average grade being mined worldwide is only 4.18 gpt gold.
The grades of the silver and copper are also extremely high and they have been determined to be âPAYABLE METALSâ. In a scenario like this, what you do is talk in terms of âgold equivalentâ grades and you add to the grade of the gold, the contributions of the silver and copper. In this ore I am penciling in at averaging 25 gpt âgold equivalentâ, about 20 gpt of this is from the gold itself and about 5 gpt of it comes from the âby-product contributionsâ of the high-grade silver and high-grade copper. This is called a âPOLYMETALLIC DEPOSITâ and might be of interest to anybody seeking exposure to any of those 3 metals.
If youâre confused about the complexities of a froth flotation plant, try to think of it in terms of the working faces of the DL2 Vein. You have a 1-meter or so wide strip of âBRIGHT YELLOWâ material in the middle of the âworking faceâ. You have a 1-meter wide strip of nonmineralized or lesser mineralized âWHITEâ material on each side of the âBRIGHT YELLOWâ material.
When you crush this ore and run it through a ball mill, youâre going to get a pile of sandy like material with a âMODERATE YELLOWâ color to it. This material goes into the FF plant that has a string of cylindrical âcellsâ lined up in âbanksâ. These are full of water. A stream of bubbles is introduced into the bottom of these âcellsâ. A âreagentâ called âethyl xanthateâ is introduced into the water and an âagitatorâ mixes up the sandy material and the bubbles.
The âreagentâ coats the gold particles and makes the gold become âhydrophobicâ which means that it hates the water part of this mixture. The gold particles covered with the âreagentâ makes a beeline to the air bubbles and they ascent to the future of these âcellsâ where they form a âfrothâ. The high-gold-content froth is periodically skimmed off and kept. The nonmetallic material is âhydrophilicâ, it likes water. This worthless material, the âtailingsâ, drops to the bottom of the cell from which it is discarded to an on-site âtailings storage facilityâ. The EXTREMELY HIGH-GRADE FROTH is sold.
In essence, when you go back to the image of the working face of the adit, the nonmineralized âWHITEâ material is the stuff that sinks and is discarded. Some of the âBRIGHT YELLOWâ material also has worthless material incorporated into it. This also drops to the bottom of the cell and is discarded. What youâre left with is âSUPER BRIGHT YELLOW FROTHâ which is sold. All of this âmagicâ only costs about $10 per tonne to occur. This includes both the âCAPEXâ to buy and build the plant as well as the âOPEXâ (operating expenses) to run the plant and buy the reagents. That discarded material, the âtailingsâ will never have to be TRANSPORTED anywhere, which costs money, and it will never have to be SMELTED which costs a lot of money (about $184 per tonne). In essence, you spend $10 per tonne to save $184 per tonne in SMELTING COSTS and âXâ amount per tonne in TRANSPORTATION COSTS.