“I Believe Mr. Gold is probably still out doing his naked runs and eating his goat cheese!”
Oh Dear, is that who I shot last night streaking across my backyard?
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That’s good for AUMC but but what about us mdmn shareholders without AUMC shares?
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Here’s a read for you dated back a few years!
brecciaboy
IF MEDINAH/AMC WERE TO HIT BIG GRADES AT THE MERLIN VEINS 2-5 TRENCHING AND DRILLING PROJECT WHAT EXACTLY MIGHT IT MEAN?
- The NPV of both Medinah as a corporation and the currently 100% owned ADL deposit itself will spike because of BOTH the early production opportunity aspect and extended mining life both of which are intricately tied to NPV. Why is this “double whammy” aspect so important? It’s because the all-important NPV of a deposit is calculated by a “discounted cash flow” (DCF) analysis. The two most important parameters are the timing of the COMMENCEMENT of the cash flow (early production opportunities) and the length of time the cash flows (mine life). The near surface Merlin Vein grades are tied to BOTH parameters as opposed to, for example, the average grades found in the porphyries themselves.
- The question then arises, will any spike in NPV associated with stellar grades at the Merlin Veins and the subsequent enhanced amount AMC could get for the sale of any of their 85% post-option exercising points induce AMC to bring in heavy hitters to co-develop the project on terms more favorable to AMC because of this spike in NPV i.e. less dilution of their 85%?
- Would the bringing in of any new heavy hitters by AMC necessitate AMC acquiring “ownership” via exercising the ADL option with perhaps multiple parties then paying the purchase price? My guess would be that AMC would want to fly solo on this project UNTIL a breakthrough of the NPV occurred.
- Will the ability to make some big production cash quickly induce the exercising of the option? Can AMC earn income without being an “owner”? Did Medinah have the leverage back at the Toronto meetings to say sure we’ll cut you in on the cash flow from the Merlin Vein early production opportunities RIGHT AFTER YOU EXERCISE THE OPTION?
- The NI 43-101 and/or SEC IG 7 technical report will be that much more favorable with strong Merlin vein results. This would allow BOD members of interested majors more leeway to get involved as their actions would be more defensible with one of these technical reports on file. What exactly goes into one of these reports:
Trimetalsmining.com - The combination of a favorable 43-101/IG 7 plus an early option exercising should qualify both Medinah (with the cash and the 15%) and AMC (with the 85% stake) for exchange listings. Any listing on a higher exchange should enhance credibility and expand the universe of potential investors perhaps even institutional investors.
- An exchange listing for AMC could provide enormous financing opportunities for covering the CAPEX. Might an IPO associated with an exchange listing be used to fund the purchase price and CAPEX?
- Stellar grades at the Merlin Veins might (depending upon the agreed upon formula) increase the cash amount of the $100 million MINIMUM “purchase price”. The term MINIMUM implies that the amount could scale up as per a previously agreed upon formula.
- Any enhanced amount of up front cash as determined by the agreed upon formula might induce AMC to exercise the ADL option sooner than later just to stop the calculation clock. This would enhance the NPV of Medinah that much quicker and lessen the timeframe for gettlng a higher listing and the attached superior financing opportunities through things like an IPO.
- The enhanced value of the ore from stellar Merlin Vein results would probably hasten the development of the project since time is money.
- Enhanced early cash flow to Medinah (with higher grade ore) could fund share repurchase activities that would take advantage of (lever) the DISCONNECT before it dissipates. How much cash flow are we talking about and how soon might it commence?
- Extremely high grade ore at surface could increase the probability that the underlying hypogene ore might be of a higher grade than otherwise contemplated.
- The presence of extremely high grade ore in the Merlin Veins as well as at the LDMC 70 meter depth level 3 Km away could suggest that other very high grade epithermal deposits might be discovered in the future or perhaps already identified on the aeromagnetic survey.
- With high grades at the Merlin Veins the internal rate of return (IRR) will be greatly enhanced and the payback period lessened.
- With high grades at the Merlin Veins there will be a race to go into production. Since transportation charges in Chile are a large percentage of C-1 cash costs (mining, milling admin and transportation) I would think that there would be a race for AMC to build their own processing facility perhaps while shipping some of the higher grade ore just to get some cash flowing. Building production facilities further solidifies the odds of exercising the option perhaps sooner than later in order to enjoy some of that cash flow. All of these trips to Toronto and Santiago might be associated with hammering out new agreements to incorporate into the original “binding framework agreement” in regards to splitting up the proceeds of production.
- High grades at the Merlin Veins might expedite AMC’s efforts to gain CONTROL of Medinah once the Quijano issues are resolved. One might expect that gaining CONTROL of Medinah might precede any option exercising so that AMC will be in CONTROL of both the cash and 15% AMC stake at all times.
- Simultaneous with gaining VOTING CONTROL one might anticipate AMC also attaining BOD CONTROL and a transition process of swapping out Medinah management for AMC management.
- What exactly are “stellar grades” at the Merlin 1-5 veins? Is it realistic to think that the 27 gpt gold grades (plus highly anomalous copper findings) found in the surface trenching of the Merlin 1 Vein will follow through to the other 4 Merlin Veins? First of all, finding 27 gpt gold AT SURFACE IN TRENCHING SAMPLES is a bit insane in a highly weathered, oxidized and leached area. But then again, this isn’t really “at surface” in terms of the original stratovolcano before it blew its top off. Today’s “surface” is in the belly of the mountain where supergene enrichment from acid leaching can be found. Usually you’d expect grades to increase with depth from the surface in a vein. So the jury’s out for now. I would assume that first we’ll get surface trenching results from Merlin 2-5 and then some grades down deeper subsequent to drilling out these gigantic “sheets of plywood”.
- Most “gold mines” mine veins in an underground fashion. The average grade is often cited at perhaps 2-4 gpt gold. The average “mining width” of the veins being mined is 1.2 meters. In “high sulfide” veins (high acid) the metals tend to permeate into the wall rock and the grades are moderate to low. In “low sulfide” veins (lower acid) the metals are typically confined to the vein itself but the grades are typically higher.
- What do we want to learn from any press releases concerning the Merlin Veins? How many total kilometers have been traced at surface? If all 5 are 1.5 Km long then the answer is 7.5 Km. What is the average width? M 1 was 1.35 meter. What is the average grade at surface? M 1 ran at 27 gpt gold which, to me, is insanely high. I’ll be doing cartwheels at anything north of 5 gpt gold. WARNING: The cartwheels may not be pretty. What is the recovery rate as determined by the “bulk testing”? What are the copper grades in terms of “gold equivalent”? ARE THESE VEINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE OPEN PITABLE? Has AMC been busy scooping up nearby concessions now that they know more about the trending of the ore? Has drilling commenced? How many rigs involved? Is the 43-101/IG 7 still scheduled for early in the new year?
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Hey Jimmy, Gold now over 2900. Are we going to see 3000 before the end of the week? How much is that stock pile worth now?
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Hard not to chuckle when reading this post from a DECADE ago. Replace Merlin, which is/was a dud, with all of the new “fantastical” predictions. Not much has changed. Same unbridled optimism without any supporting data. Same attempt to frame MDMN as just another junior miner progressing along a 15+ year journey to reach production. Like MDMN has been advancing an asset all of this time when, in reality MDMN’s 30 year journey has actually been marked with several false starts and stops. What has their been to promote? The reason why the “typical” junior takes so long to monetize an asset is b/c they check the actual boxes (drilling program, feasiblity studies, etc, etc).
Maurizio’s recent pivot could finally lead to production. I believe it will. Maybe this time is different but let’s not pretend that this “journey” has any semblance to the 1-in-1000 odds most miners face. Building a small plant is commendable but that doesn’t mean that MDMN /is the “1.” It might also be “responsible” to avoid counting chickens and give Maurizio the time to deliver. Given that we have not heard about the engineering permit yet, I’d be shocked if these guys have enough time to build a plant before the end of the year. A 20,000 ton stockpile should keep them busy for a bit but it will be very challenging for them to keep the plant “fed” when chasing a vein.
There will be long windows when the vein/mineralizion with be lost and found and lost again. This is why most of the 1-in-1000 miners have a drill program with mapped out mineralization/volume/grades at certain depths. This will be more analogous to the guys on Gold Rush. There are times when they make good money but flying blind will lead to periods of barron rock until AUMC spends the money to drill out resources.
Similarly, to estimate an AISC at under $1,000 per ounce is 1) not supported by any facts and 2) without consideration of the miniscule scale of this project and 3) assumes that they are mining the vein in a continous state. Even in a hyper grade scenario you’d be hard pressed to find a miner producing less than 10k annual ounces while being in the lowest decile of production costs. Have we seen any capex estimates on mechanization? Lastly, Stratcon ain’t cheap. Quite the opposite. Their $20m “services fee” should be a pretty good indication. Try using that number/cost input with a operation of this size and coming up with less than $1000oz. I have no doubt that BB could reverse engineer that math but…
To his credit, BB did make the following prophetic observation:
With high grades at the Merlin Veins there will be a race to go into production. Since transportation charges in Chile are a large percentage of C-1 cash costs (mining, milling admin and transportation) I would think that there would be a race for AMC to build their own processing facility perhaps while shipping some of the higher grade ore just to get some cash flowing
Its unfortunate that this decision took a mere decade to materialize but what’s 10 years in the context of a miner’s 20 year journey?
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Gold steam rolling to 2940!
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I’m assuming Baldy and BB don’t know the implications of dividending/converting a stock if it has a significant naked short supply and listed on the gray market.
Would really like to know whose on the hook. Hopefully its not mdmn shareholder. I don’t see how that would be possible.
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I don’t think Kevin would let this go unnoticed. I’m sure Maurizio and him have talked about the scenarios to make these guys cover. After all I remember MC and family have well over 300 million shares of Medinah.
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One could make the argument that MDMN’s directors could/should make the time and commit the pocket change to bring the company current on their financials. Is it really so much for shareholders to expect the company to allow regular trading? I dont think a short squeeze is in the cards but there’s no plausible explanation for the current illiquidity. Insult to inury.
You may remember this theory from nearly a year ago:
the reason for Medinah voluntarily “going dark”, if the allocation/distribution of Medinah’s 16+ million AUMC shares is coming upon us soon, it sure makes sense for all concerned, to get all of the buying interest for a stake in the ADL Mining District funneled into AUMC shares only, and leave Medinah off to the side, for example, and onto the “Expert Market”. This would stop the buying of Medinah from being a thorn in the side of the AUMC share price. The “liquidity factor” would thereby be reversed and now in favor of “AUMC” over the now nearly impossible to trade Medinah.
In other words, both AUMC and MDMN’s share prices were being “artificially” supressed b/c of a penny stock arbitrage and going onto the expert market was part of an elaborate “strategy” to drive AUMC higher, right before the shares were distributed.
Funny stuff but not really. Is anyone ever held accountable for the nonesense posted on this board?? This is people’s hard earned money that has essentially been frozen b/c MDMN canb’t file its financials!!!
Spend the money to bring MDMN current so that sharehodlers can realize tax losses or, God forbid, add to their MDMN position at a massive discount to the AUMC conversion. There’s simply no evidence that the share distribution is closer now than it was 5 years ago. Anyone trying to defend or explain this expert market fiasco really needs to have their head examined.
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Exactly what all of us long term people have been waiting for….accountability! The management (MDMN) have treated us shareholders like crap. Get us off the gray! Who cares how you pay for it.
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Interesting find from 2015, Jakeman644. In that post, brecciaboy presented several questions regarding what Medinah had going at the time. I like the way he does not dictate solid claims or predictions as if they were facts. Instead he offers “IF” and what ‘could’ or ‘might’ happen based on what limited info we have — whether good or bad. His optimism was not misplaced, because if there was nothing good at the time, then how could we have come this far? Even if what he said might happen doesn’t, I learn from the knowledge & areas of expertise he shares while he speculates the current information.
I barely remember the AMC. Now 10 years later, we see the AMC & Merlin veins didn’t pan out the way he (we) thought it might. Yet, there’s something funny about judging against him for that. One constant remains: Hindsight is 20/20.
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No they sure didn’t pan out ….like so many things! Jaded I luv your enthusiasm I really do. Let’s hope we come out of the gray in a much better position then it is now.
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Yes, “like so many other things” as you said.
That said, I blame Medinah & Auryn management for keeping us in twilight about so many things. With that scenario, I think it’s good if someone knowledgeable offers some balanced speculation based on what little is known. Taking the good with the bad, optimism isn’t a bad thing, because we wouldn’t be this far along if this were all doomsday scenarios.
I still hope for a squeeze, too. The best ‘squeeze’ we’ve had so far is what info we managed to squeeze from management,lol! 
But I’d be happy with really impressive grades & fair share distributions This Year! - considering how long we’ve been waiting.
I’m happy with my AUMC accumulation, but I have a lot more MDMN.
To reinforce why this requires attention, lets put the whole squeeze talk aside and focus on why its concerning for shareholders. Without there being a market for MDMN shares, how can there be an equitable prorata conversion or dividend of shares, if there is any amount of naked shares (even a small amount)
That is what we need an answer to first without getting distracted with a short squeeze discussion. It is indefensible for them not to keep mdmn current for several reasons and this issue is just the cherry on top to add to the stress. Where’s Wizard, the shareholder advocate when you need him?
I mean this is the type of bs that leads to wild specualtion that Wiz chastises us for. Whose fault is that? The fact that BB hasn’t pounced on answering is because he doesn’t know. The markets are corrupt and nobody really knows what actually happens. If he tells you what would happen with any degree of certainty, he would be lying.
Maybe MC wants to privately benefit from an off market short squeeze by selling a block of his shares to a despeate market maker needing to cover. See what happens when speculation is given an opportunity? We would all much rather management do the right thing and communicate the same way.
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I give you a half 
Jimmyp1127 - Only because I don’t want to accuse anyone without reasonable evidence to back it up. 
Othewise this makes sense.
It was very reckless and irresponsible for the company not to come out and let the shareholders know ahead of time and the reasoning that MDMN will be moving to the Gray Market.
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I get a kick out of every time that the price of gold pops a few bucks, somebody on the MiningPlay forum always asks what the “value” of Auryn’s stockpiled ore might be now. The “value” will be a function of the AVERAGE GRADE of the stockpiled ore and its TONNAGE. This “value” will then be enhanced when the stockpiled ore is run through the new FF plant. After this occurs, the grade of the resultant “float concentrate” will be greatly enhanced over that of the stockpiled ore, and the TONNAGE will be reduced in an inverse fashion. The decreased tonnage of the hyper-concentrated “float concentrate” is a very good thing because the ore processing is not done yet.
The spike in the “value” of the “float concentrate”, over that of the stockpiled ore, despite its lesser tonnage, comes from the fact that the ALL IN SUSTAINING COST (AISC) to produce each of the ounces of gold will drop markedly post-froth flotation. This is due to the fact that the FF process only costs about $10 per tonne but it markedly drives down the TONNAGE that needs to go to the next steps of ore processing which are much more expensive than $10 per tonne. TRANSPORTATION, SMELTING, AND REFINING can cost over $200 PER TONNE. In essence, you spend $10 per tonne in order to save you over $200 later on. The end game is to get to .9999 gold bullion as inexpensively as possible. This “ECONOMIC LEVERAGE” is why almost all mining operations nowadays have froth flotation incorporated into the ore processing “flow sheet”.
So, back to the original question. What is the “value” of that gigantic pile of stockpiled ore now that the price of gold is going nuts? The answer is a great deal, especially if that stockpile of ore is located next door to a new, state of the art, froth flotation facility. If that stockpiled ore happened to be mined “DIRECTLY FROM THE VEIN WITH MINIMAL DILUTION FROM THE SURROUNDING WALL ROCK”, as is the case for a lot of that stockpiled ore mined over the last 2 years, then the “value” gets enhanced that much more due to the “ECONOMIC LEVERAGE” involved in the froth flotation process. This is why, when the price of gold is breaking out to the upside, a junior “producer” does everything in its power to get an FF plant financed and into operation ASAP.
All of these sources of “value” enhancement like being in a position to produce gold when the price of gold is breaking out to the upside, as well as being able to mine “DIRECTLY FROM THE VEIN”, which markedly increases the “intra adit head grade” of the stockpiled ore, when combined with the ECONOMIC LEVERAGE provided by an FF plant, can act in series to greatly increase the ECONOMICS of the mining operation. The unsung and often unnoticed hero in this sequence is the intense driving down of the AISC to produce each ounce of gold. At an AISC of somewhere around $800 per ounce (trust me on this), a miner is now in a position to clear around $2,000 per ounce for the first time in the history of the mining industry. So yes, that stockpiled ore is indeed worth a lot of money and the reason for this is, like many things, a bit more complex than one might think at first glance.
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Can you provide some evidence of your past predictions ever coming true, to warrant anyone trusting another one of your predictions? Don’t you need to earn that trust by being somewhere in the ballpark of accuracy over the past 30 years? Why is AUMC the first miner clearing $2,000 an ounce? Are you saying that AUMC is the lowest cost producer in the history of the mining industry? This type of prediction falls more in line with what I would expect. It’s wildly inaccurate but…
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I asked mdmn mgt if there was any scenario where we would not receive AUMC shares
This is the response:
“cannot make any comments on that, when news update is possible you will know, thanks,”
Read what you want into it but doesn’t give me much confidence that they cannot reassure we’ll be getting AUMC shares
It’s been too long. Something is wrong imo
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In the January 2025 update, management notes recent achievements that were previously posted as possibilities. Some TMP members laughed at those contributions claiming them as unsupportable or insane predictions.
Unfortunately, our memory loses clarity over time, causing some to doubt.
In one instance, the January 2025 Update announced the completion of the mining camp with enough capacity for the “entire operational workforce.” The mining camp has the benefit of solar panels & is connected to the internet via Starlink …
"… ensuring clean and sustainable electricity. This setup has enabled us to connect our mining site to the internet via Starlink, ensuring connectivity, communication, surveillance, and monitoring of our operations and personnel.”
—as quoted from Auryn’s Shareholder Update
Some never believed this would happen when initially introduced as a possible outcome a few years earlier. There’s a difference between ‘predicting’ something and ‘presenting possibilities’ based on knowledge.
This applies to a few other updates previously speculated on this forum when they were dismissed as nonsense by some. The denials dismissed posts about adequate water supply for mining, the repairs & development of road access, or even the possibility of year-round mining capabilities at the Altos de Lipangue. (ie: electricity, equipment, etc.)
Now I view every post claiming nonsense with skepticism. I like reading suggested possibilities, though. It’s interesting to see how some of them were ultimately realized. While clarity from management could be better, there’s still enough supporting evidence proving they’re on the right track despite prior denialism.
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