Auryn/Medinah 2026 1st half General Discussion

easymillion · January 6, 2026, 7:16am

Rod, You say:

I don’t hold any AURYN shares at the moment, and have thought about accumulating over the past year or less.

Hmmm, I get what you are saying. Let me ask, where were you when CDCH shares were trading at $0.04? Those CDCH shares are now part of the free trading float of AUMC shares. Why don’t you hold any AURYN shares now? You also say:

I’ve invested in gold/silver shares, many that have tripled (or more) in value.

You probably meant to say that you invested in gold mining company shares/silver mining companies, many that have tripled (or more) in value. If so, you must have a ton of money on hand now to buy whatever you like, but too short sighted to see what a true anomaly AURYN is at this juncture in time? Tell me, those stocks you are referring to, were they all producing companies, with proven ounces in the ground? Perhaps they were more speculative, near term producers, with ounces in the ground as they are getting ready to start production? Where are they on any of the Lassonde curves that have posted? I can name at least two dozen companies that have made that kind of performance in the last couple of years. Pretty standard stuff in the present commodity rotation and meltup in the precious mining companies. They are not anomalies!

The point I’m making is you cannot fairly compare those companies that have tripled (or more) in price to the anomaly of a near producing bootstrap company that has yet to start producing. AURYN has a very large land package containing unmeasured mineral wealth. I ask, where do you think this company will be a couple of years after the start of production? You go on to say:

Once there are shares to buy, i.e. float of ~7,000 + 16,000 (converted shares) the $ traded amount should become at least 4-5 times as much. That is when you can make a decent amount on your purchase.

I may be over thinking this because shareholders now know there is a delay before MDMN converted shares get ordered distributed. Despite the trading difficulty you pointed to, AUMC shares have already risen to a higher value per share largely because of a very tight float.

Recall last quarter when I said that with only 6,572,781 shares held by shareholders in brokerage accounts that shares would need to be trading at a higher value for shareholders to make a profit before letting go of those few free trading shares. I know I would like to see a minimum of $5. I originally bought my CDCH shares at $0.04 before the RS and name change resulting in AUMC. I might not have bought them if I had not attended two of the shareholders meetings in Salt Lake City.

I would like to know where the price of 16,000,000 converted shares will go when base price after release into the market is $5 or more? A newly producing mine acting like an IPO with 22,572,781 free trading shares priced at $5 is indeed an anomaly! Could the share price be even higher if GOLD is still commanding a POG better than $4-5K? A newly producing mine with cash flow, and relatively small float, might bring some brisk trading in the next couple of years. Yes, highly dependent on the production results and probable expansion of the mine. Speculation suggests a much larger mineralized system than initially defined by the early drilling. AURYN has uncovered “bonanza” gold grades in multiple vein structures, and evidence of larger copper and gold porphyry structures. Now that’s something I think about!

EZ

TheRod · January 6, 2026, 6:18pm

I went back to 2009 (first time using Excel, prev. Quattro Pro which I can’t view) in my spreadsheets, I think I may have never owned CDCH, only MDMN !

TheRod · January 6, 2026, 6:25pm

You used to be able to place a minimum amount of shares on your order, apparently not now.

So the brokers/agents/unscrupulous market makers, can sell you anywhere from 1 to 100 shares which are worth diddlysquat (after commission) .

You are right though, I would have bought (and will ?) if guaranteed minimum shares.

judgedb · January 6, 2026, 8:18pm

You can place an “All or None” order to prevent a partial fill.

brecciaboy · January 7, 2026, 6:21pm

Hi EZ,

Thank you for your post, lots of good comments. When I was learning how to do “market comps” analyses for mining corporations, I was always taught to make sure that the 2 companies being “compared” are a very tight fit when it comes to things like geopolitical risk, grades, share structures, deposit types, management skills, etc. Auryn is such an ANOMALY that finding a “market comp” is literally an impossibility. Their approach to building a producing mining corporation was vastly different than anything I’ve ever studied.

There is a huge flaw in the standard approach to building a mining company. The junior explorers/developers do nothing but spend money in their development stages. The problem is that they need to sell enormous numbers of shares, often at steep discounts to the prevailing share price, in order to fund those activities at a point in time in which the share price is near zero because of the lack of a mineral discovery and the near zero statistical chances of not only making a discovery but also getting it into production. If only a junior explorer could find a “sugar daddy” type of figure to advance the cash needed early on in order to circumvent all of that share structure DILUTION. The ideal scenario would be for the junior miner to pay back that loan out of the proceeds of PRODUCTION, again, in order to circumvent all of that DILUTION of both the share structure and the percentage of ownership of the project. That’s basically what the Auryn/Medinah shareholders somehow pulled off. Not only that, but the repayment of the loan will occur from the sale of gold, silver, and copper production all at a time in which the price of all 3 metals is at an all-time high.

The net result of this “not so standard approach” is a miniscule number of “shares outstanding” compared to other junior miners. This then increases the “EARNINGS PER SHARE” because there are so few shares outstanding. This then results in a higher share price because share prices are determined by EARNINGS PER SHARE multiplied by an industry-standard “multiple” of EPS. What’s exciting for shareholders is that this lesser number of shares outstanding is permanent because once the cash is flowing there is less of a need to sell shares again.

The question arises as to why all junior explorers don’t take this approach. How many mining corporations have a CEO that is willing and able to advance all of the cash needed to go all of the way into the “CONSTRUCTION PHASE” of pre-production while charging zero interest? This approach represents an entirely new paradigm that I don’t see being replicated any time soon.
Do mining investors understand this phenomenon? I would guess not, mainly because they’ve never seen it.

The result is an extremely tight share structure in terms of the number of shares issued and outstanding (I/O), fully diluted, as well as the number of shares in the “float” of readily sellable securities. The former (low number of shares I/O)is going to result in a very high EARNINGS PER SHARE figure which when multiplied by the industry standard “multiple” of EPS, will result, based on a given level of earnings, a very high “APPROPRIATE SHARE PRICE”. The latter, an incredibly low “float”, suggests that arriving at the “APPROPRIATE SHARE PRICE”, is probably going to occur rapidly. The concept of entering into very high-grade PRODUCTION with a very low AISC, with only 70 million shares outstanding, a current “float” of less than 10 million shares (pre Medinah distribution), and 100% ownership of the entire mining district, at a time when the price of gold is at an all-time high, is absolutely insane. That’s an awful lot of “stars” to line up at any one point in time. What this results in is management’s need to properly EDUCATE the investing public, because they’ve likely never witnessed this phenomenon.

SOME COMPONENTS OF “AURYN THE ANOMALY”

Auryn has never had to sell a single share to an outside investor in order to fund development efforts. In the last 28 quarterly findings, in the “# of shares issued and outstanding” line-item entr spoty, the figure 70 million shares appeared in all of them. That’s insane.
Auryn enters high-grade gold PRODUCTION with only 70 million shares issued and outstanding fully diluted. That’s insane. In fact, most of these shares are semi-restricted from resale by Rule 144.
The “float” of readily sellable securities is currently less than 7 million shares. That is beyond insane.
The GRADES found during the preliminary channel sampling at level 3 of the DL2 Vein are pretty much “off the charts”. The first grouping of 4 different channel samples came in at an AVERAGE GRADE of 164 gpt gold and the second grouping came in at 150 gpt gold.
Management owns 62% of the shares outstanding which results in their financial incentives being aligned with those of the minor shareholders. This is critical.
From a “DEVELOPMENT STAGE” point of view, Auryn finds itself in the “Lassonde Curve sweet spot” (“CONSTRUCTION PHASE”) for investments in this sector.
Entering into extremely high-grade PRODUCTION when the 3 metals being mined and sold are ALL trading at their ALL-TIME highest price levels, is insanely fortunate from a timing point of view. Since many of the GOLD PRODUCERS have already tripled or quadrupled in share price, everybody and their brother are looking for investment opportunities in unnoticed GOLD PRODUCERS or “ABOUT TO BECOME GOLD PRODUCERS”, that nobody has ever heard of. Auryn/Medinah are solidly in this category.
Auryn has already mined, stockpiled, and segregated by grade, over 60,000 Tonnes of ore. An unknown percentage of this ore was mined “DIRECTLY FROM THE VEIN WITH MINIMAL DILUTION BY USING PERCUSSION HAMMERS/JACK-LEG DRILLS”. Avoiding the GRADE DILUTION caused by blasting, makes the average intra-adit “HEAD GRADE” that much higher. In their 10/30/24 Press Release, Auryn management cited that the ore mined in this “DIRECTLY FROM THE VEIN” fashion should result in an average grade of about 70 gpt “gold equivalent”. But you need to keep in mind that we don’t know what percentage of the 60,000 Tonnes mined and stockpiled to date were mined in that fashion. Management also cited that ore mined using blasting might be expected to average “AT LEAST 10 GPT GOLD”. In essence, Auryn is already “IN PRODUCTION” and could be selling this very high-grade ore at this time. However, if they patiently wait until their new ore processing facility is completed, the “MARGINAL PROFITS” will be substantially higher.
Auryn qualified for a $4 million financing from an institutional investor with generous terms i.e. the interest rate is “SOFR” plus 4% (about 8%), a 10-month grace period, and carried for 60 months. The financiers got zero shares and zero warrants for shares.
The intra-adit “HEAD GRADE” of the ore is extremely high. That grade is about to be augmented by a factor averaging in between 2 and 20-times via “froth flotation”. The resultant EXTREMELY HIGH-GRADE “FLOAT CONCENTRATE”, will result in Auryn’s ALL IN SUSTAINING COST (AISC) probably being in the lowest quartile of all gold producers. Extremely high-grade ore being processed on-site results in a markedly decreased AISC and therefore a markedly increased “MARGINAL PROFIT PER OUNCE PRODUCED”.
The overall mining sector is “WHITE HOT” right now, and mining PRODUCERS WHO ARE ABLE TO DIRECTLY BENEFIT FROM THE MIGH METALS PRICES, are trading at higher “multiples” of EARNINGS PER SHARE than they normally do. The universe of investors seeking investment in GOLD PRODUCERS has never been this expansive often due to “FOMO” or the fear of missing out.
Auryn has engaged in pretty much ZERO PROMOTION to date. Although they might not recognize Auryn’s “not so standard approach” to building a mining company, investors worldwide do understand EARNINGS PER SHARE.

WHEN YOU HAVE AN EXTREMELY ATYPICAL AURYN-TYPE SITUATION, INVESTORS NEED TO EVALUATE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES ON A “PER SHARE” BASIS, ESPECIALLY EARNINGS PER SHARE

Investors buy these things called “SHARES” which represent a unit of equity ownership. A major miner that produces 2 million ounces of gold per year sounds pretty impressive. However, if that miner has 20 billion shares issued and outstanding then the “# OF OUNCES PRODUCED PER SHARE OUTSTANDING” is not that impressive. The EARNINGS generated by the production and sale of those 2 million ounces of gold are going to be divided by an enormous number of “SHARES OUTSTANDING” resulting in a ho-hum level of EARNINGS PER SHARE and a ho-hum share price.

An Auryn-type company can generate significant but not necessarily stellar levels of “GOLD OUNCES PRODUCED” or “EARNINGS”, and still generate an outstanding level of EARNINGS PER SHARE and an outstanding share price. Mining investors are so used to massive levels of SHARE STRUCTURE DILUTION that they don’t often think in terms of financial metrics on a “PER SHARE” basis. It’s almost as if, the default assumption is that the share structure of a GOLD PRODUCER has already been trashed, so let’s concentrate on things like the “# OF OUNCES OF GOLD PRODUCED ANNUALLY”. The reason that the default assumption is what it is has to do with the fact that 99% of the time that is indeed the case and there was no “sugar daddy” figure around during the development years.

easymillion · January 7, 2026, 6:28pm

… and then AURYN will go to a higher exchange that is MC’s plan all along.

EZ

Baldy · January 7, 2026, 10:29pm

BB. Would it be fair to add a bit of context on the anomalous nature of AUMC and how we got to this point? Yes, the share count is extremely tight with concentrated ownership but isn’t this the result of a 100 for 1 reverse split with legacy shareholders owning 10% vs. 100% of the assets? With the “sugar daddy” taking the other 90%? It would be disengenous to claim that legacy shareholders have endured this journey without massive dilution. The 70 million shares today have no resemblence to the owneship structure from 8 years ago. This dynamic might also explain why the “sugar daddy” has so graciously lent the company money. He owns most of it.

What is the difference between AUMC trading with 700M shares and 13 cents vs the 70M shares at $1.30 today? Or 7 billion shares at 1.3 cents (which would be the actual count pre 100 for 1 split). If you account for the 90% dilution to existing investors the numbers become too large to comprehend. Couldn’t every mining stock do a reverse stock split to accomplish this incredible feat? PPX, bashed for its’ massive share count, could do a 10 for 1 split tomorrow, have 80M shares outstanding and trade at $3 but I can’t think of any sophisticated investor who would fixate on this factor as central to an investment thesis.

I’ll resist any mention of MDMN where the VAST majority of shareholders (in quantum and $ amount) are invested with no visibility of outcome but, safe to say, they may be a bit less enthusiastic of the “atypical journey”. As for the “flawed approach” of the standard mining company, its safe to say that those poor souls who have been stuck invested in those companies, with allllll of those shares oustanding over the past couple years might disagree with your analysis. If they pause long enough to stop counting their profits (in hand today, not expected tomorrow). And for the hundreds (thousands?) of previous MDMN shareholders who didn’t survive and/or maintain a 25 year investment time horizon, I’ll go out on a ledge to suggest they may have tolerated a little dilution to expedite this “unflawed” development cycle.

It might also be fair to question the assertion that shareholders magically landed on the sweet spot of the Lassonde curve without having suffered through all of the other critical steps of development. Said differently, you can’t expect to participate on the parabolic upside, typical at this stage of the Lassonde curve, without checking the prerequisite boxes (exploration, development, feasability studies, etc). The whole reason why this is the sweet spot is specifically because of the exploration and developement of a resource and a well defined feasibility study of a mine plan and mine life. You don’t get to cut in the line and expect to have the same ride. This isn’t an opinion but rather an explanation as to why AUMC has not appreciated in value vs. the 3-10x return of most “standard” companies during this stage.

It also seems a bit inconsistent to focus on the anomalous journey AUMC has taken and then expect to trade at “industry standard” P/Es, metrics or anything else “standard.” I think the whole point is that because AUMC broke the mold the typical, industry standard comps are not applicable. For better or worse. By way of example, it would be impossible to accurately predict a P/E of 10, 20, or 30 in the absence of a mine life. Yes, the market can try to speculate on how many years of feedstock can my mined over whatever period of time but its a humble excercise without a defined mine life or resource.

Again, this doesn’t have to be a good or bad thing but it seems a bit silly to fixate on all of the benefits of having a tight share count while ignoring the factors that have allowed the count to remain so low. I’ve never fully understood this proverb but it seems appropriate in this case: “You can’t eat your cake and have it too.”

To respect those who have somehow perserved and remained invested along with the majority of those lost along the way, there needs to be an acknowledgement that this anomalous journey was not part of some sort of grand design and would not have been wished upon your worst enemy. This being said, while the historical context of how we got here will have a considerable impact on everything from determining a mine plan to the valuation of the stock, the future is a blank canvas.

Comps are admittedly tough to find. When I see predictions of $5 to $10 per share I’m tempted to reference companies like Rio2, just to provide a flavor, or said differently, massive contrast on what a company at that market cap looks like. Rio has a 20 year+ mine life and 6 million ounces. They will be producing 100koz for a few years and then targeting 250k ounces. It’s pretty staggering to consider how much the market demands to support at $500M market cap even when the price of gold is $4000oz+. Austral Gold Limited has some similarities. Its a small South America co ($100M market cap) forecasting 15,000 ounces of gold production next year .

The closest comp I could find to AUMC is Starcore (SAM). The oustanding shares (90M) and production (9k ounces) are both in the ballpark. Additionally, SAM doesn’t have much of a defined resource. As we all know, every mining project claims to have 1000’s of hectares of untold mineralization and wealth. The market will only assign value to proven ounces.

Starcore International Mines Ltd. (TSX: SAM) – Company Summary

Market Capitalization & Shares Outstanding:
Starcore trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the ticker SAM with a market capitalization of ~CAD 89 million (~US$67 million) and approximately 89.9 million shares outstanding as of early January 2026. StockAnalysis

Primary Asset — San Martín Mine (Mexico):
Starcore’s sole producing asset is the San Martín underground gold-silver mine in Queretaro, Mexico, where it extracts and processes gold and silver doré. StockAnalysis

Resources & Reserves (as of April 30, 2024):

Proven & Probable Mineral Reserves: ~96,298 oz gold and ~710,435 oz silver, for a combined ~104,962 oz AuEq.
Measured & Indicated Mineral Resources: ~97,396 oz gold and ~720,623 oz silver, for a total of ~106,185 oz AuEq.
Inferred Mineral Resources: ~47,972 oz gold and ~355,856 oz silver, totaling ~52,312 oz AuEq.
These figures represent contained metal estimates under Canadian reporting standards, net of production to date. Starcore International Mines Ltd.

Production (Recent Results):
At San Martín, equivalent gold production for the 12 months ended April 30, 2025 was ~8,916 oz AuEq, with ~2,342 oz produced in the fourth quarter of that year. Production reflects ongoing operations with both oxide and beginning carbonaceous ore milling.

mrbubba · January 9, 2026, 2:32pm

JUST POSTED - More pictures - dated December 21, 2025 - January 9, 2026

Electrical structures and supports:

Cement floors poured at various locations of plant:

Ball mill foundations after adjustments, and installation of components:

TheRod · January 9, 2026, 2:55pm

Does BB or anyone know a ball park $ cost of ’ Court-approved administrative expenses from estate assets’ ?

Jimmyp1127 · January 10, 2026, 2:04am

Thanks Bubba for posting.

DoneDeal · January 10, 2026, 2:45am

Looking at the 1st photo tells you these guys are working around the clock.

mrbubba · January 10, 2026, 1:54pm

Hmmmm …… it’s dark out there. Maybe they’re constructing a nighttime roller coaster.

Baldy · January 10, 2026, 3:44pm

Based on these latest pics and some of the “re-do’s” on the foundational work it looks like commissioning is likely in March, maybe April. They have the weather on their side and are clearly working thru the night so that certainly expedites things. Always cool to see these things built from scratch on the top of a mountain. I’m hoping the company is able to provide details on cost, budget, permitting, timelines and even (long shot) some preliminary guidance on first 12 months of production in their next update

Baldy · January 10, 2026, 6:38pm

It can get exceptionally expensive. Especially receivership. I’ve been involved with some cases that cost millions of dollars for relatively small projects. The lawyers and receivers/admins are the only true winners. This being said, Kevin is not a professional receiver who is relying on fees to make a living. I doubt he’ll be clocking $800 hourly rates for his time. I bet he can get everything done for under $200k if he doesn’t pay himself anything. Legal, court, third party/transfer and exchange related fees that are out of his control will accrue.

Jimmyp1127 · January 12, 2026, 1:51am

Hey DD, that pile just keeps appreciating!

Note to Baldy, Hard to believe the company would publicize tonnage that includes completely barren rock having zero value. MC should be chastized if that’s the case.

Baldy · January 12, 2026, 4:08am

Seriously? This is the same company that “publicized” their plans to be sending ore to Enami for the better part of two years. I always get a chuckle when the resident unicorns parse through these PRs like they are the bible but conveniently ignore all of the massive misses on guidance that never materialized. I don’t think they even have a lab (still) to measure the stockpiles but, even if they did, it would only be recently. Anyone with a precursory knowledge of mining would tell you that you can’t simply separate ore, visually, with any accuracy. In an earlier post, I presented the question (nobody touched it) on how they could possibly have 60k tonnes of stockpiled ore (not rock) given the mining timeline. Its hard to make it work. I’d guess that this magical mountain of stockpiled gold will probably have the same fate as many, many other aspirational PRs. “Poof” gone and onto the next chapter: tonnes delivered, processed, grades reported, nothing shows up on financials, next month, next month, change of plans were building a plant. Hard to believe?

But in all seriousness, if Maurizio wants to eventually graduate out of penny stock land and attract legitimate investors (outside of Bubba’s “big hitters”), the company is going to need to 1) provide waaaaay more details on financials and mining and 2) be able to execute on this guidance. They no longer have the luxury of pivoting because the rock is refractory. That gets you laughed out of the room. As does announcing key financing without providing any details. Dozens of examples but you get the drift. In the real world, companies don’t have the unyielding devotion of “Uncle Doc” who could find a way to praise the company for running over a cat for the better part of three decades.

While its fun to throw out price targets, $5 is a $350M market cap. There is NO way that Bubba’s magical (nonexistant) dividends will carry the weight. AUMC will, sadly, have to operate and report/disclose like a “normal” non breaking of the mold co. Can you imagine a quarterly earning call? If AUMC can trade over $2 over the next few years they will need to be doing something, exceptionally well. There’s still a looooong way to go but I hope they get there. Its a small probability but the main reason why I’m sticking around. That and my obvious popularity and commaraderie across the forum participants.

DoneDeal · January 12, 2026, 2:06pm

Look at that Jimmy…Gold over 4600 already. Them stockpiles are worth millions! Let’s goooooooo

mrbubba · January 12, 2026, 2:30pm

Yeah, and silver ain’t doing so bad itself - at this rate, I’m gonna say the silver content of our ore is no longer gonna be an afterthought/icing on the cake.

mrbubba · January 12, 2026, 2:40pm

I guess if you CANNOT visibly separate the ore, then between the samples they sent to Peru and Enami MC is batting 1,000? Either that, or I need to take MC to Vegas with me.

But, this flies right in the face of what BE said before; that MC cherry-picked those samples to be sent off, right?

I like reading BB’s stuff, because he’s consistent and tells the truth. I’d love to be able to say the same about others around here, but …….

Jimmyp1127 · January 12, 2026, 3:19pm

MC should not be mentioning 60k tonnes in a shareholder update if its 95% barren rock as you suggested it likely was. That’s irresponsible and misleading.