So when you info comes from Les, a known liar, pathological liar, it is more believable? I am sorry Mike. I urge others to ignore Mike’s earlier post about dividends sooner rather than later, unless you enjoy getting kicked in the onions. If it happens, fine, but Les just can’t help his “soonisms”.
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Just my two cents, but it takes 3 months to get set up to mine. A little longer if this is an underground mine due to opening up a portal, digging tunnels, ventilation, safe house, etc. I forget if this surface or underground. Then what is the stripping ratio and how quickly can remover the dirt to get to the vein(s).
But when it comes to divies, I would imagine Masgals wants to recoup not only the $5MM+ they put into the initial exploration, but also the cost of the equipment, engineering, geo’s… that they expended to get to the point of being to turn the first shovel.
My guess is they will have at least $10MM into the mountain before they start turning dirt.
Not to mention the other cost (i.e. buying MDMN/JJ’s) shares, as well as, future exploration.
I don’t see Masgals making any decision on divies until after a full year of mining, (i.e. end of 2017).
All my opinion.
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I’m certainly not an accountant but I don’t believe recovering the cost of buying MDMN/JJ’s shares can be recovered in anyway other than by either selling the shares or receiving dividends on those shares. I don’t believe the share cost could be charged toward Auryn mining operation as a CAPEX toward mine development.
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The only one getting upset is you because, my informed opinion supported by basic analysis of production timelines, cash flows, and public updates, does not line up with your opinion. I’m happy to be your personal troll but, seems to me you’re going to be more upset by consistently creating expectations (organically or via Les) that simply cannot be met.
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DonD, I agree, but if you go along with several peoples contention that valuing a mining company or most any other company is based on NPV, Masglas would include all costs related to its participation in the ADL project, including the shares.
The sale of the shares or the buy out of the remaining o/s MDMN shares would be included in the cash flows in the period it occurs.
JMO, this is viewed as “one” project, which includes the cost of the shares purchased. At least that is the way I would look at it.
Nothing that I have commented on is coming from Les. I have not spoken with him this year, haven’t gotten emails from him in months. Les was all washed up/spit out when Juan sold his final shares and Greg left with nothing of value coming from him in weeks. Please stop making assumptions or parroting the nonsense that is coming from John.
Just to be clear, while I look at the ADL as one project including the purchase of shares, I am in no way suggesting that Masglas won’t pay divies until they fully recoup their investment. I think they will, but IMO, they won’t make any decision until end of next year.
Wouldn’t mind being wrong on this matter.
My comment was not directed to you or BE, but it seems obvious to me, that anyone making projections about this stock and investment and what may happen or not happen, particularly 18 months from now is making an opinion, not a statement of fact.
It may be an educated opinion or not, depending upon the source.
Two sides to everything. (well almost) The “one project” view could seam clear from Masglas point of view but from Medinahs shareholders it should look different. Potentially Masglas could buy all of Medinah under the “one project” scenario, take the cost out of production before any dividends are ever made available and Masglas would have just purchased Medinah with funds that Medinah would have otherwise received but never did. I have a hard time believing that could actually happen.
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From the May 16th Auryn Update:
The cash flow generated from production at the Caren Mine will fund an aggressive exploration program of the Pegaso Nero and further drilling of the Merlin-Fortuna targets. The Pegaso Nero target has great potential to begin proving up a mineralized porphyry.
As we progress toward full scale production AURYN will provide updates regarding costs, mine life, and reserves. In addition, we will be updating our shareholders regarding possible cash distributions after the first quarter of full production.
25000 Oz have been projected in 2017, implying 25000 / 4 = 6250 Oz per quarter
Therefore there can’t be a “first full quarter of full production” in 2016, else the 2015 goal would be >= 6250 Oz. And furthermore, the “first full quarter of full production” can not be before end of Q1 2017.
Therefore, Auryn has told us to expect an update re. ‘cash distributions’ but not before end of Q1 2017. Clearly there will be no distributions prior this ‘update.’
Could plans change? Of course. But predicting changed plans is just speculation.
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Which is what…9 months away? Where do you suppose John came up with 18+ months?
FYI…full production is only 5000 tons per month. They should be able to reach that rather quickly unless some unexpected problems develop. The grade could end up being close to 1 oz/ton. Opening up the Fortuna in the next year will double the fun. Getting permits for higher amounts will triple/quadruple the fun.
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This is underground. Pretty clearly they are approaching via one or two of the adits on the north side of the mountain, which we have seen here in Google Earth pictures several times. The underground nature of the mine is why Auryn has brought in Peruvian underground mining experts who we were just informed now have their work permits. Work should have started today. Chile is more known for its large open pit monster copper mines. In Peru (most of Volcan’s mines for example) underground mining is more common, so there is more expertise there apparently.
Auryn has repeated the ‘about two months of preparation’ statement several times. This is probably to clean up and shore up the adits and get them to pass safety inspections. But the high grade gold is right there in the adits. This is where the high grade samples came from which Auryn reported months ago. There should be no stripping or digging to get to the gold, just preparation to get the adits in safe working shape. Then they just start following the veins across the plateau. They have also said they know the Merlin 1 vein (the Caren mine vein) goes clear across the plateau for 1.8KM, and goes at least to the depth of the 3rd adit, which is around 150m, most likely deeper. There is plenty to keep them busy esp. at 5000 tpm.
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The problem Mike is this . . . just let it unfold without all the hype.
LP has spun the story for years and almost every time he over promised and never delivered. That is why we are where we are.
AMC said 2 months for mine preparation, 6-8 months to scale up to 5k tpm, a full quarter of production (3 months), then a report on possible cash flows, expectations, and dividends. (At least that is my read of things.)
Best case that puts us at 11 months. Worst case at 14 months. That’s May 2017 to Aug 2017. If that’s the case, the earliest we could possibly see dividends is Q4 of 2017. (Again, that’s my read of the landscape.)
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Thanks CHG, havent been following too closely and busy with my own stuff.
Possible has many meanings.
1.9 Million shares up for sale @ .0142
Amazing that these size blocks keep coming up after last weeks great update from Auryn
You can blame some of the pessimists right here on MP for that. Who knows. Next week, John will be saying no dividend now for 36+ months and some fools will believe him. By why stop there? Auryn will probably put all the gold production back into the property and never give out a dividend at all. Five years from now, Medinah will get small pop from almost zero when Auryn is finally bought out.
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Start “discussing” (not issuing) dividends to shareholders at the earliest, 9 months away. Then you need to make some simple assumptions based on the projected 25koz productions (a VERY small number), the resulting cash flows and what will be required to self-fund exploration and recover other costs. I think mdmnholder, who actually operates within the sector, has a pretty good grasp on the timeline and Wiz’s call for the 4th quarter seems very realistic.
Mike. You seem to have a decent sense for the geology but the business/operations side of the equation blows right past you. We all hope that AMC’s estimates blow away their earlier projections but nothing coming from the AMC side indicates an eagerness to distribute dividends as soon as the project is in the black. This is not how successful mining operations exist.
The origin of the conversation comes back to AMC’s decision to distribute dividends or simply tender for the MDMN shares they don’t own. This is a longer conversation and they have a long time to make that decision.
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How/where will the ore be processed? (gravity/flotation/CIL/heap leach/etc) 5000tpm is a pretty small operation, 7 or 8 tph at 90% availability assuming 24/7 mill operation.
It’s within the realm of possibility, is it not?
I’d even say that the scenario you just presented is more likely to happen vs dividend by years end and a huge grab for shares as the shorts get torched.
Probably somewhere in the middle though.
If people are selling right now (regardless of what John is saying), and you’re so confident in the ability of MDMN to make a lot of money soon, it should be a great opportunity, no?
I think we’ve found a pretty good floor for now, but that certainly my opinion. I don’t read charts and I’ve never spoken to Les or any of Auryn’s management team. I’d be really surprised and disappointed if MDMN drops below a cent.
Resigned myself to wait it out and see what happens at this point.