Thanks for posting L2, Don.
Doesnât seem to be an unlimited supply of shares today âŚ
Expectations are running high for additional investor exposure at Chile Explore Congress 2016.
Only 32 days before things get under way for high level presentations from Maurizio Cordova and Luciano MatĂas Bocanegra.
The news that has been steadily unfolding is starting to garner interest.
Much better news than thatâŚthe Caren mine should be completed in only about 15 days if preparations stay on schedule!
The public market is already assigning a value to 5% of AMC. Take a look at CDCHâs market cap. Just my opinion but the present value of MDMN, based on what has been publicly provided thus far is not unreasonable. Iâd refer to recent comments made by CHG and HR re: fair value relative to other mining projects, etc. Itâs easy to come on this board and claim the âmarket doesnât get itâ or blame manipulation on the market makers but the reality is that the value of AMC is not deeply depressed.
Iâve come across dozens of projects that are in production (20-30koz annual) with maket caps under $30M. References to exploration stage miners going into production as 1:1000 is extremely misleading. The odds are that slim for exploration companies getting into production with 20 years life-of-mine but the small scale projects are not all that rare. If/when MDMN can scale the production AND define a resource the maket will pay attention.
Anybody invested here shares the belief that the potential for massive upside is very possible but there needs to be patience for the data that will unlock this value. As soon as we lost the upfront payment ($100M) the stock shifted to a âshow meâ investment.
I havenât watched level 2 on this stock in 6 months. See comments on patience and enjoy your summer!
I was hoping some funds would clear for me this week to take advantage of the sub-.012s, but looks like Iâll have to wait until next week. I really like the idea of accumulating (averaging down) down here with the mindset of longer term time horizon.
As you know, MDMN is not scaling the production in anything, and that defining the resource is key for the market to pay attention. It is AURYN/MASGLAS doing all the planning, funding and work. I can certainly agree with your key point here, though, and have said so in previous posts. The market will pay attention to scaled up production and defining the target resources. It is also possible that Medinahâs BOD knows that some rapid cash would alleviate what may be perceived as a disconnect to FUTURE valuation and provide greater leverage with a near-term share buy back and dividend. Just my opinion, also, so I raised the question would the current BOD entertain such an offer from a 3rd party?
FYI, I donât use L2 on this stock either, but I did enjoy seeing the lack of available shares posted earlier today. Enjoy your week-end and summer. That goes for everyone here!
I had a buy order in today for 200k shares, 10 minutes before the close at the ask, and did not get filled. It was All or None, but I was not expecting or disappointed that it was not filled. Which could be a good sign that the shares are starting to tighten and dry up. Next week could get interesting, especially if we have some decent volume. Did I say next week??? SorryâŚ
My apologies for even responding to your post. My comments were generalisations based on other, very frequent diatribes about valuation disconnects. The only reason why I quoted your post specifically was to point out that 5% of AMC already has an assigned value and it ainât going to equate to a cash infusion of any consequence. Facbook pics and a Twitter handle are distractions while we wait for development the market will recognise and reward.
Calendar of Events:
August 20: Tentative completion date of the Caren Mine. (New check of the weather-looks perfect
into the foreseeable future.)
September 8: Chile Explore Congress 2016
a) Auryn/Maurizio gives a presentation on Cyclical mining strategies.
b) Auryn/Lucciano Bocanegra gives a presentation on the property
October 1 Auryn/Medinah Informational Meeting-Las Vegas. First initial production results may be
presented.
Note: The Lucciano Bocanegra presentation will probably be the first significant presentation ever made on the property to the formal investment community outside of a Medinah/Cerro shareholder meeting. Having Juan or a geologist giving a presentation at a major event has been talked about happening for decades but I donât of any instances that it actually happened. Just maybe, the property will finally start getting the respect it deservesâŚthat being a major world class copper/gold deposit discovered in the burbs of Santiago in a great location for a mine containing usually high grade ore for the 21st Century.
I assume our Communications Director will get a hold of the presentation slides from the Expo and provide them online.
You know John, I have been thinking along similar lines. Huge potential down the road, but JMO, MDMN is fairly valued at where it is at.
Thatâs what Iâve said for quite some time, disappointing as the current PPS may be. Iâm always open to pleasant surprises, however they may come about. The upcoming presentations at the Chile Explore Congress 2016 and Informational meeting at the Mirage may be the start of renewed investor interest. The shareholder base is much smaller than in previous years. As a reminder, I stated we are fairly valued a month ago, FWIW.
Iâll throw this out there for consideration in as respectful of a manner as I can but I think making appropriate valuation opinions based primarily upon MR/MR in a scenario like this might be a little shortsighted. A private company not trading on an exchange that mandates an Ni 43-101 compliant technical report (F-1) as a listing requirement has a lot less incentive to pay inordinate amounts of money (especially for a deposit of this magnitude) to block out MR/MR than a publicly traded company does. This is especially true if near surface high grade already permitted early production opportunities abound.
The thought process is why spend a ton of money in blocking out MR/MR that wonât be monetized for many, many years when those same financial resources can be allocated to nearly immediate income producing endeavors involving harvesting the âlow hanging fruitâ. If youâre trying to attract the attention of a mining major then that major might actually be more interested in a turnkey operation that is already producing cash flow rather than a company with questionably economic MR/MR up the cazoo.
The saying in the industry is that âall ounces are not created equalâ. A boatload of MR/MR at the 4,000 meters above sea level elevation up in the Andes whose all in sustaining costs might be $1,300 per ounce is not going to compare very favorably to a mining firm with a lot less MR/MR, an AISC of half of that amount, and already in production at the 1,700 meters above sea level elevation within a stoneâs throw of the Santiago airport.
I would suggest a more customized valuation approach to the ADL project keeping in mind things like the technical capabilities of a management team like Aguilera, Bocanegra, Maurizio, Bent, etc. Iâd review managementâs ability to provide enormous amounts of cash to Medinah especially at an initial zero percent interest rate. Infrastructural details would be critical to appreciate. The permitting status and forecast arrival of further permitting needs to be evaluated. The amenability of the ore to be extracted with environmentally clean gravimetric methods should also be factored in.
The characteristics of the deposit need to be studied in depth. How closely do the contents of the GIS database conform to geomodels? Are there early production opportunities available? What is the anticipated vertical emplacement of the underlying source of the hydrothermal fluids (the porphyritic structures)? Recall that the moly is right at surface at the PN and that the moly resides near the core of the porphyry stock amidst potassic alteration (Lowell-Guilbert). What does the internal plumbing system of the stratovolcano look like? Were there plenty of faults, cracks and fissures present that allowed metal bearing hydrothermal fluids to make it close to surface? Were there plenty of permeable horizons made up of materials like limestone/dolostone able to trap the metals that have precipitated out of solution and store them in replacement deposit form like skarns?
Is the deposit part of a well known geological belt like the Chilean Coastal Cordilleraâs âEarly Cretaceous Porphyry Beltâ that hosts huge deposits with striking similarities to this deposit? In other words are you located in a good neighborhood with valuable deposits also 91 million years old and made up of intrusions from the same Veta Negro/Lo Prado underlying rock systems? Have the epithermal aspects of the deposit been protected from erosion such that all 4 of the typical levels of these deposits remain preserved?
âTHE MARKETâ doesnât know any of this information which is the bedrock information needed for any attempt to judge the appropriateness of the marketâs valuation. âThe marketâ is not capable of rendering an appropriate market valuation yet. The brainiacs in the mining industry that can process all of this technical information have never given Medinah a second thought. Until now, there has always been too much of a black cloud present to justify making the effort to study this deposit. All of these realities set up the potential for a vast disparity between what âthe marketâ renders as a valuation opinion and what the reality is. These markets are not âefficientâ in a technically complex industry like this. The average grades being encountered at the ADL could be ten times richer or one tenth as rich and the market wouldnât even notice.
âEfficient marketsâ are forward looking and have the data at hand and the technical capability to digest that data and evaluate future profitability. Comparing MR/MR figures between private and publicly traded mining firms with discoveries in varying geopolitical settings with varying economic parameters and varying amounts of early production opportunities and varying need levels to block out MR/MR can be fraught with difficulties. It is indeed a tool with utility to provide a very rough cursory glance when studying multiple investment opportunities in publicly traded firms forced to produce 43-101s. However, it might be wiser to wait until the proof of the economics is available. The first hint regarding the overall economics of the deposit or one aspect of the deposit is often a âpositive production decisionâ made by those with access to the data and the ability to interpret it and the willingness to cut the checks needed to go into production.
When youâre trying to compare the appropriateness of a market cap of a mining firm with that of another mining firm then there are a whole lot more parameters to evaluate than MR/MR especially if thereâs an obvious reason why one firm might not be that interested in blocking out MR/MR at the time i.e. plenty of low hanging fruit to harvest first and youâre not publicly traded or courting the attention of a major because of your own financial resources. I wouldnât hold that against the private firm but instead search for a more appropriate valuation methodology to guide the comparison.
Different look on the Auryn site.
Is anyone interested in how many TMP members will be at the Vegas meeting?
choose one of the below answers.
Donât forget you need to register for a free ticket.
-
I will be attending.
-
2 of us will be attending
-
3 or more will be in my group.
-
Sorry, I canât make it.
-
Wouldnât get within 100 miles of the place.
0 voters
Will you be staying at The Mirage?
-
Mirage
-
other
0 voters
I would assume Auryn wants their website to look tip-top before they make their presentation at the conference. On the other hand, Medinah could have done a better job, when they had a makeover for their website. Although better, it still looks second rateâŚ
I would not be surprised with a new look Medinah Website in the near future.
For those who are in limbo, another poll question.
I would like to attend but have to wait and see.
-
maybe if the SP goes up a bit
-
just not sure, maybe 1 or 2.
-
maybe more
-
doesnât look likely (if you did not already vote no)
0 voters