Auryn/Medinah - 2022 - 1st Half General Discussion

LOL. Watching too many movies on Netflix these days (Narcos)? Many now consider Columbia a better mining jurisdiction than Peru or Chile.

Here’s the FACT sheet which you may have missed. However, it comes as no surprise that you would chose a bulletin board stock with a richer valuation (even on an enterprise value basis) than a company doubling their production to 40koz this year. It will take AUMC a loooooong time and a considerable amount of money to achieve the same (including the onsite plants). I don’t own Soma Gold. Simply using one of many examples of tightly held producing gold miners with a small float.

Gold moving again nicely today! 1840

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I am going to give the same example as I did a while back. GBR.V Great Bear Resources Ltd. I believe that Auryn is where GBR was in 2018, just starting off and their SP was .58.

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Looks like Auryn did some updates to their homepage

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Looks like it is a work in progress. They should also update PDAC announcement as that conference has been postponed till June: https://www.pdac.ca/convention/attendee-info/pdac-2022-announcement

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Much nicer weather in Canada then. :slight_smile:

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Curious that you now tout Columbia a better mining jurisdiction than Peru or Chile. Additionally you name a company that you apparently don’t currently hold a position in, as I’m sure you wouldn’t have mentioned you don’t currently own it otherwise. There’s an obvious reason you don’t own it, as astute as you are on financial shortcomings of companies. Could the reason this may not be an ideal investment (for me either, at least not at the present time) until the 0.25 warrants expiring early July are taken care of? The reported float currently is: Float 20,505,051.

Warrants Strike Price Expiry
24,946,043 $0.25 July 3, 2022

What happens to the float when the warrants are exercised? Will this then become a more attractive investment to keep an eye on? Will you continue to let us know what you don’t own? More importantly, will you let this forum know if and when you again become a shareholder with a stake in this company?

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A question to the wise ones.
Is there a rule in Chile that all gold bearing ores have to go to ENAMI ?

the warrants are owned 100% by two of the directors. This isn’t why I don’t own the stock. I don’t own the stock because it shouldn’t be public. When two of the execs own 60%+ of the company and is highly illiquid it creates a gating factor for any new institutional investors. It’s dirt cheap. The debt is being amortized down but nobody, of substance will buy the stock because of liquidity. Sound familiar? The difference is that AUMC trades at 3x the market cap with no production. I’ll admit that the upside potential for AUMC is higher if they deliver on the grades but the risk is also significantly higher because, as of now, they haven’t delivered on anything. We don’t even know how much the company owes Mr. M at this point. Keeping in mind that the company announced hitting the DL a year ago there is no doubt that they are way over preliminary estimates of budget. If this was a normal public company and they erroneously announced finding the motherload, only to admit that they were wrong six month later, the stock would be obliterated. However, similar to Soma Gold, this isn’t a normal public company so the standard market rules don’t apply.

To answer your question, I’d make an investment in AUMC when/if we can actually model a mine plan. As of now this is an artisanal play with a rich valuation. They can definitely grow into this valuation but there’s a lot of wood to chop. I’d rather buy (at the same price) once the fundamentals match the market cap. Anybody who thinks that buying will show up once they start production simply needs to reference the Soma Gold scenario which is why I brought it up in the first place. Try buying 100k shares in AUMC for under $1. You can’t and nobody will.

Is it curious or just another fact based on knowledge of the space? The Fraser Institute, a very reputable group, does an annual survey on the most favorable mining jurisdictions and, what do you know, Columbia ranks ahead of both Chile and Peru. Check slide 13 and or place foot in mouth.

Also worth noting: Mr. M’s key employee/partner/and advisor ditched AUMC for a project they are focused on in, you guessed it, Columbia. This is another project they were tirelessly trying to raise money for at the various conferences but, in this case, they had some success which is why Dave/they are more focused on advancing it.

Disclaimer: Watching Narcos on Netflix is not sound investment strategy

Hi CS,

I’ve never read about any mandate to send ore to Enami. Enami’s job is to take care of the needs of about 12,000 smaller miners and the Chileans they employ. As a consolidated group, these miners gain access to the world stage and to certain economies of scale just like the majors enjoy. Enami’s mandate is to not be a burden on the taxpayers of Chile so they are slightly profitable and not subsidized by the government. Many of the profits go back to the miners in the form of loans with extremely favorable terms for advancing their mining projects. The artisanal miners at the ADL received inexpensive loans made against future production from “CCM” to advance their mining project at the DL1 Vein. “CCM” (Credito Caja Minero) evolved into what we call Enami today.

Enami and CCM’s geoscientists did a tremendous amount of work on the ADL. One of their P. Geos, Luis Kaiser, did a lot of the work on geomapping and mineral potential. Later one of their P. Geos, a man named Waisberg, mapped pretty much the entire Fortuna Mine/DL1 Vein that was being mined at the time and a lot of very rich areas that never got mined. One of these was no doubt the intersection of Shaft A and Level 2 where Auryn’s recent 18 sample program revealed many intersections over 100 gpt gold and one of 1,220 gpt gold and off the chart silver. Don’t, however, expect the 1,200 gpt sample to be “representative” of the ore grades Auryn will be mining. We can only assume that this will be one of Maurizio’s initial targets. He made a vast number of recommendations to SMFL most of which they followed.

I’ve been running some models for quite a while as to some pro forma projections as to potential earnings based on a variety of conditions. The Jan. 7, 2022 quarterly update noted that on 11/30/21 management received a pre-liquidation value from ENAMI of $36,207 for the 48 tonnes of ore delivered to them recently. The accepted total was 15 g/t Au, 31g/t Ag, and 3% Cu. AURYN expects to receive final payout from ENAMI in January. Do not expect many shipments of ore from this vein system to be that low.

Based on a price of gold of $1,800, the gross value of 48 tonnes of 15 gpt (0.482 ounces per tonne) or 23.15 ounces of gold would be $41,672. If we assume that since the gold concentration was less than 25 gpt which is the threshold that necessitates that ENAMI also pay for the copper and silver components as “byproduct credits” then ENAMI’s fee would have been $5,465. This would represent $236 per ounce of gold or $114 per tonne of ore. The $236 per ounce figure represents 13% of the $1,800 price of gold. I think most would agree that this fee is not overly burdensome. If Enami did pay for the 3% copper as a “by product credit” then that 13% figure would be higher.

Enami does not provide trucks to the miners, so the miners need to provide their own. We don’t have the on-site operating expenses (“OPEX”) yet so we can’t compute an “All-In Sustaining Cost” (AISC) on a per ounce basis. We do know that the AISC average 2 years ago was $907 per ounce worldwide. Last year with inflation setting in the AISC was a little over $1,000. The average small miner in Chile is producing 7 gpt gold, shipping it to Enami and making good money at $1,800 gold.

What tends to happen with the new gold producers in Chile is that at first Enami will do all of the secondary and tertiary crushing, milling and processing of the ore. With time, the miners will learn that they can do certain tasks even cheaper than Enami. They’ll set up their own mill facilities once there is enough “mill feed” to make it economic. “Free milling” ore that is amenable to inexpensive simple gravity separation techniques will typically be done on site. Then that which is being sent to Enami is a much higher-grade “concentrate”. Transportation costs will go down as less loads will need to be sent in order to produce a given number of ounces of gold.

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Thanks for feed back Brecciaboy.

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Well I need to invite you guys over I guess by this notice I got when I started this post :: Let others join the conversation

This topic is clearly important to you – you’ve posted more than 11% of the replies here.

It could be even better if you gave other people space to share their points of view, too. Can you invite them over?
*** So consider yourself invited over. I’ll plug in the block heater on the skidloader and plow out a area for a bonfire, put the forks on and gather some logs and a bucket of gas and get er lit off. Bring a cooler to keep your beer and wine from freezing. I’ll start the welder /genset to plug in your crock pots and coffee pot. Bring your Face North warm clothes and a down sleeping bag if you can’t drive home after. Should be a good party, moons still up for most of the night still. Might even see some northern lights after the moon sets. Masks are optional but freeze up fast in these temps.
So till then; Here’s some sites for the type of equipment the boys up on the mountain could invest in next. www.goldclaimerbrand.com. … and a rock crusher.

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Stock markets are bleeding again today. Dow down almost 1000 pts

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As it should be and should’ve been for a long time

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Wow to go down 1000 pts today and to close in the green. Tell me there’s no manipulation going on both ways

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ETFs are forced to sell proportional holdings of the stocks in their ETFs. This included the stocks doing very well in this environment. After the initial sell off, it allowed many of the better value stocks to be picked up at a relative bargain, which many funds and traders apparently did. We’ll just have to see what happens in the next few days and weeks. It’s a very selective market. I expect AUMC will do quite well before the year is over.

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Gold back under the 1800 threshold with all the inflation and money being printed hard to believe Gold is not over 2000. Tell me it’s not being manipulated.

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Can’t wait for that day when we hear from Auryn that they have found the DL main vein.

Things will then start clicking.

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I apparently can wait 17 years and counting so far what’s a few more months anyway! I do enjoy the feeling that there is someone at the helm who knows what they are doing and is keeping us apprised of events not making them up.

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