I don’t recall an announcement on permit approvals having been granted. Wouldn’t derisking include announcement of substantial production permits specifically for planned operations to the Fortuna project? I believe that will be the milestone where this project to profitability really takes off in a meaningful way.
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The only announced reference I could find was for an expected exploitation permit. Was there other news on permits that I missed?
July 2022 – Shareholder Update
Jul 6, 2021
AURYN Mining Corporation (OTC: AUMC) is pleased to share our Q2 2021 accomplishments, Q3 2021 objectives, and outlook for the future.
Q2 2021 – ACCOMPLISHMENTS
- On May 17, 2021, AURYN received approval from the National Geology and Mining Service (SERNAGEOMIN) on its closure plan. On May 18, 2021, SERNAGEOMIN requested more information regarding AURYN’s exploitation plan. AURYN provided this information to meet the requirements and is awaiting a definitive permit issuance.
The wonderful progress being made on mapping the vein deposits is continuing and is definitely major news. However, it appears we need not only an update on the exploitation plan approval, but also a definitive permit issuance.
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So, they have a closure and reclamation permit but not a start-up one??? LOL
AN EXERCISE YOU MIGHT WANT TO PARTICIPATE IN
You might consider charting out the next 12 or so quarters starting from Q-1 of 2023 to perhaps Q-4 of 2025. It’s going to be a rough guesstimate for now, but chart out how many working faces you feel might be in operation during any given quarter. I’d start with the first 2 being in operation in either Q-2 or Q-3 of 2023. Remember that these are at the level of the Antonino Adit and they will not need a “decline spiral” to access it. Upon completion of the “gallery” and the “ventilation/safety egress manway”, these two should be ready to go. Management has told us that there should be a de minimis amount of production associated with constructing the gallery and manway because these are in vein material. I’m going to guess that it will take 1 to 2 quarters to add each subsequent decline spiral and open up 2 more working faces but this is only a guess. Using this timing, by the end of 2024, I would (extremely roughly) guess that the first 10 working faces would be operational.
If you charted out the number of operating working faces over time you’d get an upward inclined line going up at perhaps a 45-degree angle. The TOTAL PRODUCTION measured in tonnes would pretty much match this incline. But how about an EXTREMELY ROUGH projection of the anticipated share price chart?
Most investors would want to get a glimpse of what the share price might be at over the course of time. The metric that would best approximate share price performance would be EARNINGS PER SHARE. Starting with the first working face put into commission, theoretically the EPS should go up proportionately to the number of working faces in production. In advancing from 1 working face in production to 10, the TOTAL PRODUCTION figure should advance about 10-fold.
If you wanted to predict the graph of the EPS or the share price which would theoretically be directly tied to it, you’d have to keep in mind that as the OUNCES PRODUCED figure increases pretty much arithmetically, the AISC to produce each one of those ounces drops. This means that the marginal profit (POG minus AISC) goes up. Therefore, one would expect the EPS or share price graph to be tweaked up a little bit steeper than the OUNCES PRODUCED graph.
We would be remiss to forget that the NUMBER OF SHARES OUTSTANDING, the “S” in the EPS formula, for Auryn is an enigma in and of itself being that there are only 70 million shares outstanding at the time of going into high-grade production. The explosivity of this reality has remained latent as it should have been UNTIL management proved to the investment community that they were embarking on going into very high-grade production from a variety of different levels.
Without EARNINGS there is no EPS ratio. Keep in mind also that the “multiple” of EPS that a stock trades at is HIGHLY DETERMINED by the rate that a corporation can grow those earnings. There is only one period of time in the genesis of a gold producer during which production can be expected to grow 10-fold in a short amount of time. Up until the point in time in which the Antonino “production adit” was completed and the first couple of working faces established, all of these accessory tidbits of information like only 70 million shares outstanding just sat there like a course of dominoes waiting for the first domino to topple. Who cares if there are only 70 million shares O/S acting as the denominator of the EPS formula if there are no EARNINGS to act as the numerator of the equation.
We need to keep in mind that pretty much nobody in the mining sector has ever heard of the ADL Mining District and/or Auryn or Medinah. If you were to graph out the number of eyes watching this scenario through time, I would assume another one of those 45-degree lines. Every investor in this sector is looking for the next…………(fill in the blank). We need to keep in mind that all of these models and projections have only to do with the DL2 Vein. It has nothing to do with the other 5 main veins, including the Larrissa Adit which will probably be the second main vein to be put into production. None of these projections have anything to do with the various skarns, mantos, breccias, the suspected porphyry at the Pegaso Nero. The market is ascribing exactly zero value to these assets even though they may end up dwarfing that of the DL2 Vein. My prediction would be that as developments ensue at the DL2 Vein, the market might start ascribing some value to these other assets especially the Pegaso Nero. Cutting a deal to co-develop the Pegaso Nero with a major or consortium of majors would obviously put it on the map. All of these assets share a common progenitor underlying magma chamber that appears to have had a metallic content higher than most.
Since the Pegaso Nero will not likely be MONETIZED for many years to come, my dream scenario would be to bring in a major to co-explore the Pegaso Nero in exchange for providing the equipment (or cash) to advance the development of the DL2 Vein that much quicker. The current shareholder base has been through a lot and many will be long gone by the time any Pegaso Nero porphyry goes into production.
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Wiz or BB… If we used only “jack-legged” drills initially, how many tons per day could be mined??? And would we most likely have 3 shifts per day???
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Spring is coming back in this northern hemisphere, and fall and winter down there on other side of the equator. The seasons (production) is coming to a end real soon on top of that mountain. Sure would love to hear some news to take us through their long winter months till spring start up, and production comes once again.
if we see permits. Those are the green light to mine expansions.
No permits for even bulk sampling production, no proof nor mention of orders for additioanal equipment (let alone much of any use of the last shiny blue truck purchased), entering the heart of winter, and no timelines met to date…
but I would def enter a second mortgage to buy more shares based on BB’s predictions…most folks would wait until they get “one in a row” before jumping back into the fray of grandiose expectations but after two decades of black eyes rational thought is gradually whithered down to hollow optimism.
If they have 2, let alone 10 working faces operational by Jan 2024 I’ll bury my head in a pile of humble pie and buy BB a case of his favorite whiskey. You can bet he won’t put anything of substance behind his timelines. Understandably.
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What are you drinking? Just don’t say Pappy’s
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BB - Changing the focus a bit, one year ago (post #164 Feb 2022) I asked, "My question BB, how related is the geology of the LDM similar to what is being found at the Fortuna?
How related is the geology found over in the Caren mine to that in the Fortuna?"
My question was really focused to answer if the LDM would have an SGE similar to the one that may be present over at the Fortuna.
BB, You replied in post #165:
The Caren/ Merlin 1 Vein area looks real good from a supergene enrichment zone point of view. Recall at the Merlin 1 surface you had all of those quartz-hematite-“boxworks” present. In a “boxwork” the rock has a lot of vacuoles like a sponge wherein something is clearly missing. What’s missing are the minerals dissolved by acids created from the oxidation of local pyrite. The missing copper is simply piling up below the historical water table in the form of chalcocite which is 80% Cu. It’s kind of nice when “Mother Nature” concentrates the desired metals for you.
… The other thing interesting about the LDM is the presence of not only molybdenite but also chalcocite. Chalcocite is the “secondary” form of copper that indicates supergene enrichment just like bornite and covellite do. So now we’ve got evidence of SGE all over the place stretching from the LDM on the northwest downslope off of the plateau all of the way over to the DL1 Vein.
Recall - that was information you generously provided a full year ago. My followup question and conjecture only; If it conclusively shown that that the Fortuna does indeed have a rich SGE zone of commercial value, would it be reasonable to expect that the SGE at the LDM would also be of commercial value? You had further indicated that Enami has a threshold limit for copper set at 2.5% Cu, regardless whether it is copper oxide or copper sulfide.
In that same series of posts you stated:
The grade of the copper in an SGE zone averages about 6-times that of the regular old “hypogene ore” i.e. usually chalcopyrite which is 33% pure copper. The 3 main forms of copper in an SGE zone are bornite at 63% Cu, covellite at 66% Cu and chalcocite at 80% Cu.
That recent 48-tonne shipment of ore by Auryn to Enami averaged 3% copper. Enami will take that and gladly pay for it all day long.
Now we know Hochsfield’s option on the LDM must be exercised (or extended) by mid December of this year. Rather than your dream scenario of bringing in a major to co-explore the the Pegaso Nero porphyry to advance the development of the DL2 vein I’d like to see Hochsfield pick up the option at the last possible minute. If the by-product credits for CU are impressive enough from the exploitation of the DL2 and other adits, wouldn’t the interest in the LDM increase? The copper grade we had in the Antonino Adit was 5.3% copper in one of the mineralized intersections and the ore from the small shipment was 3% CU. What would it take to demonstrate an SGE of tonnage at the Fortuna, and once proven, wouldn’t it be reasonable to expect an SGE over most of the ADL, including the LDM? How would that be valued? More than a case of Pappy Van Winkle! 
EZ
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The permits are a non issue, they will have no problem getting them.
" * Launch an expanded partnership with the Mining Sciences School of Universidad de San Sebastian. This includes creation of an academic space in the field for students and professionals from various disciplines to grow their mining knowledge. Lawyers, civil engineers, mining engineers, and environmental experts will be invited to develop academic and field activities throughout the Altos de Lipangue mining district. This will support the mining industry and provide potential recruits for our upcoming mining developments."
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Yes, this immediately came to my mind as well - Auryn is playing the game with the government, posturing for cooperation from them, doing what it takes to get there on the cheap. Smart - this is what people do who are in business for themselves.
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Let’s see is we get those assays from the fully uncovered DL 2 this week. Some photos of the advancement would be nice too.
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Like … One sells houses on speculation not gold mines.
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Let’s say…
— Let’s say that on Saturday I got a call from one of the fifteen people I introduced to this investment eleven years ago. (Most of them still talk to me anyway.)
— Let’s say this friend is now 81 years old.
— Let’s say that she has never been what we would call poor.
— But recently she heard Alexandria Octavia-Cortez talk about the difficulty of working with so many politicians who have been bought by billionaires who have (my friend’s words) f**k you money.
— My friend: “That’s what I want – f**k you money – while I’m still alive enough to enjoy it.”
— She was thrilled about her 20 million shares of MDMN increasing in value by $26,000 in January – “I thought it was finally happening!” – but now she’s depressed over seeing them shed $14,000 in February.
— On Saturday she tells me she has taken out a whopping line of credit on her three-story Victorian in San Francisco’s Haight-Ashbury neighborhood, which she bought forty years ago and paid off a decade ago.
— She says she has a Medinah strategy she wants me to evaluate.
— Me: “But I’m the fool in the market!”
— My friend laughs. She has never posted on this board, but has followed it for eleven years. She knows I’m the fool in the market. She says: “So what does that make me?”
— Her plan is to start buying $10,000 worth of AUMC shares every trading day, no matter the price. “Or maybe every other day. I’ll play it by ear at first.”
— She estimates that her line of credit will easily carry her into September: “And you know how I love our birthday month!”
— She goes on: “With only 3 million unrestricted shares, Auryn absolutely has to go up. MDMN absolutely has to follow. And a frenzy absolutely must ensue. I don’t see any other possibility – do you?”
— Me: “Chile nationalizes the mines?”
— She: “They just voted that down, didn’t they?”
— “What if somebody falls down some stairs?”
— She laughs again. She remembers Les Price’s “wild dash to the emergency room.”
— Me: “What if you lose your house?”
— “I’ve still got the Tahoe place. It’s paid off, too.”
— Me: “These market makers… They do stuff I don’t understand… The stock never behaves the way you think it will.”
— She: “My trigger finger is getting real twitchy…”
— “You’ve waited this long. What’s another year?”
— She: “You really are the fool in the market! When they convert our shares, all 70 million shares are available, not just three. The f**k you window closes.”
— Me: “Let me think about that…”
WHILE WE WAIT for more news, I allow myself one peek at Etrade each day, at close of market.
Today I saw that zero shares of MDMN traded.
Meanwhile, 33,000 shares of AUMC traded, leading to a drop in price. These market makers…
I called Lydia: “Was that you at 7:12 a.m. Pacific time buying 19,600 shares of Auryn for ten thousand bucks!!”
She: “Not me, Valentine, not me… I was waiting to hear from you. But I saw that and now I don’t know what to think…”
Me neither!
— madmen
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You certainly do have a way with story telling. Hope hypothetical Lydia has the luck on her side (and ours) this time!
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Madmen is that your friend who just picked up 70,000 shares of Aumc at .50
Now that I reread your post if she’s investing $10,000 a day that would only make 20,000 shares. There has already been 152,000 shares traded so I answered my question that there’s another buyer today
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I’ve gotten some inquiries as to what I thought about Auryn’s mine plan at the DL2 Vein. The above link shows a schematic of one of these “decline spirals” that Auryn opted to go with. Sometimes it takes a schematic to not only outline the process but also progress towards achieving a goal associated with that process.
The first think I’d do with this schematic is to mentally put the orebody on the other side of the spiral to make things clearer. In Auryn’s case, that top line descending from the plateau surface to the decline is the Antonino Adit or Level 3. The orebody of the DL2 Vein is shaped like a piece of plywood. The Antonino Adit hits it at about a 90-degree right angle forming a “T”.
The Antonino Adit will become the “haulage adit” or “production adit” linking the orebody to the crushers on the surface of the plateau. It is now completed which represents a tremendous accomplishment towards commencing production. The purpose of the Antonino Adit was not only to locate the high-grade ore but also to provide a means to get the mined ore up to the surface. In this case, the Antonino Adit also provided a very valuable peek at what is likely positioned below this area. The ”hundreds of meters of heavily altered rock” and ubiquitous bornite present in the Antonino Adit as well as the molybdenite found on the southern downslope off of the plateau are HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE of an underlying porphyry. Management could have opted for a vertical shaft and a headframe but they wisely chose the decline plus a “haulage adit”.
The decline spirals around at a certain “gradient” that’s not too steep or too flat. The radius of the helix will match the turning radius of the equipment that will be using the decline. When you look at the schematic, what you see is referred to as “scalability” which is the ability to ramp up production.
In the last quarterly update management cited: “Our mining team will spend the remainder of this quarter and the next preparing the mine for exploitation at the current level AND SUB-LEVELS. Minor production will occur during this process.”
As the decline goes lower and lower, they’ll create a series of horizontal cross-cuts or stubs into the vein and go through the vein. With subsequently lower levels we’ll want to see the grades being encountered and the width of the vein at the new levels. Mesothermal veins like this are famous for BOTH increasing in width and grade with depth. The DL2 has already increased in width from near surface where it was 0.15-meters wide to 0.6-meters at the level of the Antonino Adit or level 3. That’s an impressive “angle of divergence”. In cross-section these veins are shaped like inverted “V’s”. The grades have improved nicely with depth also.
EVERYBODY WANTS TO KNOW WHEN WE ARE LIKELY TO START HAVING SOME FUN
My sense is that “the market” wants to see some trucks rolling down the hill to the ENAMI processing facilities. The first production will come from the ore mined during the construction of the “gallery” and the “ventilation/safety egress manway” since these areas are part of the DL2 Vein. Investors that have been doing their homework are smart enough to know that a vein like the DL2 that has a surface “strike” of about 1,000-meters and that has been traced at depth to about 700 meters is likely to be in production for several decades ONCE PRODUCTION HAS COMMENCED.
I’m not too concerned about the timing of when the lower levels are put into production. Once the gallery and ventilation/safety manways are in place, there is a lot of mining to be done on the 2 working faces at the Antonino Adit/level 3 which won’t need a spiral decline to access. They’re good to go now. We’ve seen the 164 gpt gold average grades experienced at the intersection of level 3 and the DL2 Vein. We’ve got the sampling results from 100-meters to the NNW of this intersection within the DL2 Vein. The results there were also pretty much off the charts. The geoscientists know that the ore in between these 2 locations is likely to be similar in grade since you’re in the very same vein.
When the trucks start rolling, the VISIBILITY OF THE ECONOMICS will be greatly enhanced. The grades we are interested in are the SHIPPING GRADES i.e. what’s in the truckloads of ore that we’ll be paid for. Don’t expect 164 gpt SHIPPING GRADES. The grades of the ore in the vein proper will exceed that within the wall rock surrounding the vein. In the case of the DL2 Vein, we are fortunate to have long term historical SHIPPING GRADES from ENAMI from the DL2 ore that the artisanal miners mined immediately above where the Antonino Adit intersected the DL2 Vein. This allows us to compare apples to apples.
In levels 0,1 and 2 mined by the artisanal miners IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE AREA ABOUT TO GO INTO PRODUCTION, over a 30-year period from 1940 to 1970, the SHIPPING GRADES averaged 64 gpt gold and were improving with depth. The average SHIPPING GRADE being mined today worldwide for underground vein deposits is 4.15 gpt gold. Thjs is why management seemed so hell-bent on intersecting the DL2 Vein via the Antonino Adit. As expected, the initial assay results at this intersection were pretty much off the charts at 164 gpt gold.
The story here is not just the off the chart grades. It is a combination of the grades, the scalability of production, the fact that there are only 70 million shares of Auryn issued and outstanding, the fact that Auryn has maintained 100% ownership of the project, the projected mine life, and the fact that the DL2 Vein is just one of 5 main veins and the ADL Mining District also has skarns, breccias, mantos, a suspected porphyry, stratabound copper deposits, compelling evidence of SUPERGENE ENRICHMENT, etc.
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I for one would do her strategy if I could afford it. I’m 12 years younger and have half her shares and just cashed in in some other stock about 9 months ago to buy a great house- but a big mortgage. I don’t have much spare money to throw around but I’m OK and retired. I’ve told my wife and kids that under no circumstances should they sell my MDMN and AUMC stock if I die. I just want to also see some FU money in my lifetime.
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