Hi Mrb,
I’m feeling very good about the new financing while admitting that there are a lot of details yet to be released. I’ve been in a pretty deep “fact checking dive” since the news came out. My biggest concern had (past tense) to do with whether or not Auryn’s common equity share structure (70 million shares issued and outstanding fully diluted) would be adversely affected by this financing or not.
Although I’m pleased to no end with the assets present at the ADL Mining District and the prospects for some serious earnings coming in the not too distant future, it’s the SHARE STRUCTURE that blows me away. By SHARE STRUCTURE, I mean not only having a de minimis amount of shares outstanding while going into production i.e. 70 million shares, but also the fact that about 64% of those shares are semi-restricted from resale due to Rule 144. In my experience, most new producers in this sector have somewhere around 400 million shares outstanding by the time they go into production and 99% of them are “free-trading”. It’s the COMBINATION of the share structure attributes and the merits of the mineral assets that are extremely impressive.
On the PR I saw the sentence: “EQUITY FINANCING”: Additionally, up to $3 million will be provided through an “equity investment arrangement”, which includes a preferred dividend mechanism with dividends capped at $20 million over 5 years”, and I got concerned especially with that term “EQUITY”.
Technically, PREFERRED SHARES, are often treated as a form of “EQUITY OWNERSHIP” because most PREFERRED SHARES have conversion privileges into common shares. Auryn’s class of PREFERREDS, however, are just the opposite, they have NO conversion privileges into COMMON SHARES.
I have since been told by Maurizio, in no uncertain terms, that there are NO common equity shares involved whatsoever in this deal. So, in my mind, those of us focused in on an ultra-tight share structure, dodged a bullet. The funding market for the junior mineral explorers/developers/producers is currently a total trainwreck.
If you can land a funding in this environment, then people will probably take notice and the assumption will be made that the involved project is of merit. The combination of landing a financing in this environment, building an ore processing facility, and going into production seems like a good way for a junior producer to distinguish itself from the other 2,500 or so “juniors” that tend to all look alike.
My relief has to do with the fact that this level 3 of the DL2 Vein represents but a tiny sliver of the assets present at the overall ADL Mining District. If Auryn were to give a financier, let’s say, 10% of the common shares, then they would receive a 10% equity ownership in ALL OF THE VARIOUS ASSETS at the ADL Mining District. The DL2 Mine is by no means the most valuable of Auryn’s assets; it just happens to be the first to be put into production. Maurizio made it clear that there was no way that was going to happen and as we’ve seen all along, Maurizio has been fairly clear in stating that the 70 million share outstanding figure is not likely going anywhere.
IN THESE MARKETS EARNINGS PER SHARE (“EPS”) IS EVERYTHING
The reason I’m so hung up on the number of SHARES outstanding is because I’m totally obsessed with EARNINGS PER SHARE OR “EPS”, wherein the “S” refers to the # of shares outstanding. The obsession with the “EPS” ratio is because the EPS ratio is the only way to GUARANTEE SHAREHOLDER REWARDS for a publicly-traded corporation. In the easy to manipulate OTC markets, you cannot rely on share prices to reflect “fair market value”.
In the case of Medinah, for example, the share price is down 99% during the same timeframe that Auryn corporate developments have been making tremendous progress and Medinah’s 24% stake in Auryn has not changed. There is a total DISCONNECT between the Medinah share price and Auryn’s corporate developments. In fact, Maurizio and his colleagues were buying large blocks of Medinah shares at Medinah share price levels that were 100-TIMES higher (not a misprint) than the recent share price levels of Medinah. This was back when Auryn’s level of corporate development was nowhere near where it is today. Figure that one out. Les’s “activities” were only a part of that discrepancy. CASH DIVIDENDS are extremely honest; if you don’t have the profits, you can’t distribute the cash dividends.
This recent press release by Auryn, as well as Maurizio’s answering of a series of follow up questions, tells me that Maurizio, myself and the new financiers are equally convinced that CASH DIVIDENDS are the way to go. SHAREHOLDER REWARDS will be greatly enhanced by Maurizio’s stellar stewardship of the Auryn share structure in the past. This has represented a combination of Auryn’s “bootstrapping” approach in the past as well as Maurizio’s willingness to advance all of the cash needed to advance the property all of the way into production without charging a penny in interest and without the need to sell one share.
That past “GIFT” will forever be attached to the level of SHAREHOLDER REWARDS to be reaped by all of us. The trick in this business is to not be FORCED into selling boatloads of shares, often at steep discounts to ambient share price levels, in order to fund expensive diamond drill programs that may or may not be successful and may or may not attract a major miner. The same is true in regards to not having to sell loads of shares just to service your monthly burn rate during the inordinately long timeframe it takes for even the most successful junior miners to put a project into production. Auryn shareholders got spared all of that DILUTIONAL DAMAGE.
I would venture a guess that the average number of shares outstanding for a junior producer, on the first day of PRODUCTTION, was north of 400 million shares (versus 70 million shares for Auryn). The result is that all Auryn has to do, from here on out, is TO CREATE A MODERATE LEVEL OF EARNINGS IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE A ROBUST EPS AND THEREFORE ROBUST SHAREHOLDER REWARDS. In my way of thinking, the heavy lifting has already been done. Once into PRODUCTION, the NEED to sell any more shares, markedly decreases. If a source of leverage comes along wherein adding to the outstanding number of shares by 10% results in a doubling of the “enterprise value” of the corporation, then by all means, go for it. That’s not DILUTION, that’s LEVERAGE.
With the grades being mined at the DL2 Mine and the price of gold near all-time highs, and Auryn retaining 100% ownership of all of it assets, I don’t think achieving MODERATE levels of earnings is going to be very difficult. But, there’s still plenty of work to do.
In the current mining industry, a junior miner landing a financing, is the exception and not the norm. There are currently many hundreds of juniors selling shares in a nonstop fashion, just to stay alive while waiting for a financier to appear on a white horse. For many juniors, by the time the white horse arrives, they’ve got so many shares issued and outstanding that by the time they become cash flow positive and can stop selling shares, that it doesn’t really matter. They never will generate robust EARNINGS PER SHARE and be in a position to provide GUARANTEED SHAREHOLDER REWARDS.
WHAT ARE THE REPERCUSSIONS OF AURYN HAVING ITS OWN 100 TONNES PER DAY FROTH FLOTATION PLANT ON SITE?
All of the various individual mineral assets present at the ADL Mining District are going to experience an upwards “bump” in the value of those assets. The other 5 “Main Veins” at the ADL are going to be worth a lot more with an on-site FF plant, and an on-site lab, already in place than without one. Those other 5 “Main Veins” won’t face issues like froth flotation plant PERMITTING RISKS. The FINANCING RISKS will be mitigated if some of the profits from the DL2 Mine get allocated towards the development of these related assets. Assuming similar ore characteristics which is the norm within these “Vein Sets”, the METALLURGICAL work is already done, the froth flotation FLOW SHEET has been designed by the engineers, and the infrastructure is already in place. Once the first domino (the DL2 Mine) has been toppled, the rest are easy. This financing and the construction of the FF plant is reminiscent of that first domino toppling.
The presence of an on-site lab is going to streamline exploration efforts elsewhere at the ADL Mining District. This FF plant project is not just about ENHANCED PRODUCTION. This is a very complicated industry for Main Street investors to get their arms around. Receiving the stamp of approval from mining financiers that know a lot more than we do about what is going on behind the scenes is important. The saying is to follow the “smart money”.
The very structure of the deal, which is extremely atypical, suggests that both sides of the table are convinced that CASH DIVIDENDS are in the not-too-distant future. This means that profits, in excess of those needed to just sustain operations, are presumed to be in the not-too-distant future.
The new financiers will represent yet another party that is not going to want Auryn to spend money on things like diamond drill programs. Recall two statistics from the World Gold Council (WGC). The first is that only about 1-in-1,000 junior mineral explorers will EVER get a mineral prospect into production. The second is that even for that lucky 1-in-1,000 junior miner, it takes an average of about 24 years from the commencement of exploration activities to the first day of production. Mining financiers are well aware of these dismal odds for success FOR THE EXPLORERS. When they loan money to “junior explorers”, yet to defy these terrible odds for success, they have to demand an enormous amount of shares at steep discounts to the current share prices BECAUSE OF THE DISMAL ODDS. With “junior producers” needing money, not to do extremely high-risk diamond drilling, but to build PRODUCTION FACILITIES, things are different. The dismal odds have already been beaten and the inordinate time delays have already been dealt with.
JUST HOW DID AURYN BYPASS ALL OF THIS SHARE DILUTION THAT THE OTHER JUNIORS ARE SUFFERING FROM?
Besides having Maurizio there to advance all of the cash needed to put the project into production, and thereby avoid the sale of shares, Auryn didn’t have to do any expensive diamond drilling. They were able to make a POSITIVE PRODUCTION DECISION without drilling one hole. Why? Because the property had already been in production for 30 years and Auryn simply had to gain access to the site where the prior production effort had ceased via drifting the Antonino Adit. When they got there, they learned that the grades of the DL2 Vein were even higher than the stellar grades that the prior artisanal miners were able to average i.e. an average 64 gpt gold. The new financiers are not financing ultra-high-risk EXPLORATION with dismal odds for success, they’re financing PRODUCTION with clear visibility of how they will be repaid in the near term.
The last thing that a junior that has successfully made it into production and that is generating profits wants to do is to start drilling out other areas on their property only to start that miserable ultra-high-risk EXPLORATION cycle all over again. Once into production, the profits need to either be plowed back into PRODUCTION OPERATIONS in order to increase next year’s profits or they need to be distributed to the stakeholders via CASH DIVIDENDS. If a company like Auryn wants to develop one of their mineral assets out in the “north forty”, they need to do it via a JV strategic alliance and let somebody else pay for the drilling. YOU DON’T WANT TO START THAT UGLY ULTRA-HIGH-RISK CYCLE ONCE AGAIN.
Being that the new financiers are no doubt financially savvy, I have to assume that they pushed pretty firmly for an equity participation involving acquiring Auryn shares. That’s where the fast money and the big money is going to be made. Dividend distributions over the course of 5 years represents SURE MONEY but certainly not FAST MONEY.
What we need to keep in mind is that all of this is happening at a time when the price of gold is near all time highs and everybody and their brother wants exposure to gold and copper assets. Might this help Auryn generate MODERATE earnings? I think so. The timing could be very fortuitous.
Auryn still has a lot of work to do. They need to rapidly get their intra adit production rates up to 100 tpd in order to match the “throughput” of the new FF plant. They need to successfully “tweak” the FLOW SHEET for the new plant in order to address any “refractory ore” issues. It’s one thing to estimate production grades and production rates from studies done on a bench top in a lab. We need to get into production before prognosticating grades and production rates. RECOVERY RATES tend to increase as these adjustments are made. We still need to hear from Dr. Helmut Mischo and his recommendations for putting the entire ADL Mining District into production.