It’s very peculiar how that $20M service agreement originally was structured as an equity arrangement until some of us (mainly me) screamed and yelled. Then all of a sudden it turned into a strictly debt arrangement with a mysterious $20M service agreement.
It would be nice to start getting these all important details.
Jimmy, thanks for keeping your nose on the grindstone, not just listening to the hype. You are right in demanding clarification, which we just get snippets of.
Those interested, go back to my previous posts, which I predicted time lines for us to actually get dividends, stock In AURYN, and see a ‘profit’ which would mean after paying off $20M + $4.5M + current mining costs + ,
It won’t be soon. After all the ‘major investors’ are paid off, there might be a share swap, or before that dividends paid to those who invested ‘cash’ or ‘obligations’ into AUMC. Count yourself LAST on the list to see $. The only way that will change will be : early share conversion (IMP not going to happen) or the share price exploding (perhaps because they are producing ???) , which of course share price up will simply be by the decades long hopefuls buying AURYN shares , at which point, if it goes up dramatically, get the hell out !
Just my opinion if course.’
Never follow my advise.
I was just stupid/smart enough to get out of MDMN (after I lost a shit load) at thousands of what it is worth now.
Wishing you the best, I really do hope this works out for everyone mired for decades. Hope you all make Millions !
I will eat Crow at that time, humbly, and send you all kudows on your resilience and dedication.
Thanks for making my day. But you are largely right. I converted this POS to Roth IRA. So a piggy bank with pennies now.
AURYN’S 20,000 TONNES OF STOCKPILED ORE
In their press release dated 10/30/24, Auryn management cited that they were on track to have 20,000 Tonnes of ore mined and stockpiled prior to their new froth flotation becoming operational somewhere around Q3 of 2025. I get a kick out of how every time the price of gold has a good day, somebody on “TheMiningPlay” forum asks what the “value” of that 20,000 Tonne stockpile that Auryn has amassed must be by now. I’ve done a series of models since that 10/30/24 press release came out. I’ll share with you what I have to date. I’ll help you set up the proper line of equations to estimate that value and you can fill in your own numbers.
EQUATION #1: To start with, you take the “TONNAGE” or “T” (20,000 Metric Tonnes) and multiply it by what you perceive to be the “AVERAGE GRADE” (“AG”) in Troy Ounces of gold Per Tonne or “OPT”. There are 31.1 grams in every Troy ounce of gold. This will give you something called “CONTAINED OUNCES” (“CO”) of “gold equivalent” within that stockpile. You need to use “gold equivalent” because Auryn has 3 metals, gold, silver, and copper that are all of an extremely high grade and easily “economic”. Keep in mind that a “Metric Tonne” (with a capital “T” and a lower case “e”) is a lot bigger than what we call a “ton” that weights 2,000 pounds. Metric Tonnes weigh 2,204 pounds. EQUATION #1 is: CO=T times AG.
EQUATION #2: If you have your own ore processing facility on-site, like Auryn’s froth flotation plant, then you take the number of “CONTAINED OUNCES” (“CO”) and multiply it by the estimated “RECOVERY RATE” (“RR”) of the ore processing facility/FF plant. This will give you the number of “RECOVERABLE OUNCES” (“RO”) of “gold equivalent” within that stockpile. EQUATION #2 is: RO=CO times RR.
EQUATION #3: You then determine the “MARGINAL PROFIT” (“MP”) per ounce recovered. The “MARGINAL PROFIT” (per ounce recovered) is equal to the PRICE OF GOLD (“POG”) minus the ALL IN SUSTAINING COST (AISC to .9999) to produce each ounce of gold contained in the product, all of the way to the .9999 gold bullion stage of purity. EQUATION #3 is: MP=POG minus AISC (.9999)
EQUATION #4: There’s an important “fudge factor” to remember. The POG refers to .9999 pure gold bullion, but many mines produce a product that is well short of .9999 gold bullion. If the product of the mining operation is a “float concentrate”, as is the case with Auryn, you need to add to the ON-SITE AISC figure, how much it costs to further purify each ounce within that “float concentrate” into .9999 gold bullion even though it’s not going to be Auryn doing that further purification.)
If the float concentrate’s next purification step is the “smelter”, as is the norm, then you need to add to the ON-SITE AISC figure the “TREATMENT CHARGES” or T/C’s plus the “REFINING CHARGES” OR R/C’s, of the smelter. Another term for T/C’s and R/C’s is “OFF-SITE ORE PROCESSING CHARGES”. When you go this extra step, it becomes legitimate to use the “SPOT” POG in calculating the “MARGINAL PROFIT” (per ounce). EQUATION #4 is: AISC (.9999)=ON-SITE AISC plus OFF-SITE T/C’s plus R/C’s
(Note that there are 10 components to “ON-SITE AISC”. Auryn is fortunate in that there is currently a tremendous overcapacity of smelting facilities (especially in China), as well as a worldwide scarcity of “float concentrate” available for smelting. China is aggressively approaching the producers of “float concentrate” in West Africa and South America while currently offering top dollar for their production. China wants to engage in NEW long-term “offtake agreements”. Their problem is that most producers of “float concentrate” ARE ALREADY COMMITTED TO LONG-TERM “OFFTAKE AGREEMENTS” WITH OTHERS. Hopefully, Auryn has not made any commitments as of yet, and they can LEVER this.
Smelter “treatment charges” have dropped from $85 to $100 per tonne down to approximately $10 per tonne. This has driven down the AISC markedly for the producers of “float concentrate” and thereby driving up their “MARGINAL PROFITS” (“MPs”). This asymmetry between the supply of and demand for “float concentrate” is expected to worsen in the next couple of years.)
EQUATION #5: You then take the number of “RECOVERED OUNCES” (“RO”) and multiply it by the “MARGINAL PROFIT” (per ounce recovered) (“MP”) in order to obtain the TOTAL PROFIT (“TP”) figure. In other words: TP=RO times MP.
EQUATION #6: In order to “annualize” the earnings Auryn will make from processing that stockpile we need to multiply the TOTAL PROFIT (“TP”) figure associated with processing that stockpile over the course of about 10-months, by 1.2 (12-months divided by 10-months) in order to obtain the TOTAL ANNUAL PROFIT ("TAP”)for Year #1. EQUATION #6 is : TAP=TP times the proper “annualizing factor”.
(EXPLANATION: In the case of Auryn’s 20,000 tonne stockpile, my estimate is that it will take about 10 months (300 days) to process that ore. We need to remember that even though the “nameplate throughput” of Auryn’s FF plant is 100 Tonnes per day, which would suggest 200 days needed to process that stockpile of 20,000 tonnes of ore, there is a “dialing-in” period during which the engineers and metallurgists will determine the idealized “flow sheet” needed to maximize the “recovery rate”.)
EQUATION #7: If you take the “TOTAL ANNUAL PROFIT” (TAP) figure and divided it by the number of shares “ISSUED AND OUTSTANDING” (“SHARES O/S”), then you’ll get the estimated pre-tax annual “EARNINGS PER SHARE” (EPS). EQUATION #7 is: (pre-tax) EPS=TAP divided by O/S
EQUATION #8: If you take the pre-tax annual EPS and multiply it by the industry standard “AVERAGE MULTIPLE” of EPS (31 for the mining sector), then you’ll get a very rough estimate of where that stock should “theoretically” be trading at or “valued” at based on just the stockpiled ore. EQUATION #8 is: APPROPRIATE SHARE PRICE=(pre-tax) EPS times “MULTIPLE”
Management needs this number (APPROPRIATE SHARE PRICE”) in order to make business decisions. For example, if the corporation is making significant TOTAL PROFITS and significant EARNINGS PER SHARE but the market undervalues it, then management might consider a SHARE REPURCHASE PROGRAM during which they buy back ULTRA-CHEAP shares out of the open market and cancel them in an effort to decrease their number of SHARES OUTSTANDING (“O/S”) and thereby increase their EPS. How does this work? EQUATION #7 tells us that EPS=TOTAL ANNUAL PROFITS divided by O/S.
If the market is out of whack to the downside, you can take a little percentage of the TOTAL ANNUAL PROFITS and buy back and cancel a much higher percentage of the O/S. As a result, the “new” EPS goes up. CASH DIVIDENDS might also be considered in a situation like this. This way the generosity of the CASH DIVIDENDS can “force” the share price to the proper level. Why is this? It’s because if the market is out of whack, people like me can take our ULTRA-GENEROUS CASH DIVIDENDS and buy ULTRA-CHEAP shares out of the market.
This way, when the next quarterly CASH DIVIDEND comes around, I can expose that many more shares to that next ULTRA-GENEROUS CASH DIVIDEND. If the size of the CASH DIVIDENDS gets progressively larger over time due to the ramping up of the production profile, then being in a position to expose a PROGRESSIVELY LARGER NUMBER OF SHARES to PROGRESSIVELY LARGER AND MORE GENEROUS CASH DIVIDENDS sets up a very nice POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP.
In reality, the market will find its proper level where the CASH DIVIDENDS are not ULTRA-GENEROUS on a percentage of share price basis.
BY WAY OF REVIEW
The INPUT VARIABLES include TONNAGE, AVERAGE GRADE, RECOVERY RATE, PRICE OF GOLD, and AISC (.9999).
The CALCULATIONS and FORMULAE include:
-RECOVERABLE OUNCES=RECOVERY RATE times CONTAINED OUNCES
-MARGINAL PROFIT=PRICE OF GOLD minus AISC (to the .9999 gold bullion stage)
-TOTAL PROFIT=RECOVERED OUNCES times MARGINAL PROFIT
-EARNINGS PER SHARE=TOTAL ANNUAL PROFITS divided by SHARES OUTSTANDING
-APPROPRIATE SHARE PRICE/VALUATION=EPS times INDUSTRY STANDARD “MULTIPLE”
AURYN SPECIFIC INPUT VARIABLES AND CALCULATIONS FOR THE VALUATION OF THE 20,000 TONNES OF STOCKPILED ORE (choose your own input variables)
“TONNAGE”: I’m using 20,000 Tonnes and I’m assuming that it will take about 300 days to “froth float” that ore.
“AVERAGE GRADE”: I’m using one of two different figures and making two calculations. One “AVERAGE GRADE” is 15.5 gpt “gold equivalent” which equates to one-half ounce per Tonne or 0.5 OPT. The other is three-fourths of one ounce per Tonne or 0.75 OPT (23.3 grams per Tonne). Keep in mind that a significant percentage of the stockpiled ore was mined in between April of 2023 and April of 2024. During this timeframe, Auryn was mining EXTREMELY HIGH-GRADE ORE “with minimal dilution via the use of percussion hammers” (minimal dilution by the sterile wall rock).
-CONTAINED OUNCES: in the case of the 0.5 OPT average grade, the number of “contained ounces” in that stockpile would be 20,000 Tonnes times 0.5 OPT equals 10,000 “CONTAINED OUNCES”. For ore with an average grade of 0.75 OPT, the number of “CONTAINED OUNCES” in that stockpile would be 15,000 ounces of gold.
-RECOVERY RATE: I’m estimating a froth flotation “RECOVERY RATE” of 80%. The worldwide average is in between 70% and 90%.
-RECOVERED OUNCES: in the case of the ore with an average grade of 0.5 OPT, the number of “RECOVERED OUNCES” would be 10,000 times 0.8 equals 8,000 “RECOVERED OUNCES”. For the example where the average grade was 0.75 OPT this would result in a “RECOVERED OUNCES” figure of 12,000 “RECOVERED OUNCES” (15,000 ounces times 0.8).
-PRICE OF GOLD: the current POG is about $3,300. It’s OK to use the full POG if you are using the “AISC (.9999).
-ON-SITE AISC: my estimate for Auryn’s ON-SITE AISC is $800 per ounce produced.
-AISC (.9999): I’m going to estimate that it will cost about $200 per ounce to further purify Auryn’s “float concentrate” into .9999 gold bullion. Thus, their AISC (.9999) would be $1,000.
-“MARGINAL PROFIT” (per ounce): this would be $3,300 (POG) minus $1,000 or $2,300 per ounce of gold equivalent produced. NOTE: 2025 is the first year in the history of mining that mine producers can clear as much as $2,000 per ounce produced. Auryn’s TIMING appears to be rather fortuitous.
-TIME NEEDED TO PROCESS THE STOCKPILE: As noted, I’m going to estimate that it will take 10-months (300 days) for Auryn to process that 20,000 Tonnes of ore. The “nameplate throughput” of the FF plant is 100 Tonnes per day and thus theoretically it would take 200 days to process 20,000 Tonnes (20,000 divided by 100). The reality is that the “nameplate throughput” is not realized until the system has been “dialed-in” by the engineers and metallurgists.
-ANNUALIZED RECOVERED OUNCES: in the example where the average grade was 0.5 OPT, you would then multiply that 8,000 “RECOVERED OUNCES” by 1.2 and get 9,600 “RECOVERED OUNCES” for Year #1. Likewise, in the case of the ore with an average grade of 0.75 OPT, you would have to multiply that original 12,000 “recovered ounces” by 1.2 and get 14,400 “RECOVERED OUNCES” for Year #1.
-TOTAL ANNUAL PROFITS: for the ore grading 0.5 OPT, the “TOTAL ANNUAL PROFITS” for Year #1 becomes 9,600 “RECOVERED OUNCES PER YEAR” times $2,300 “MARGINAL PROFIT” (per recovered ounce) equals $22.08 million “TOTAL ANNUAL PROFITS” for Year #1. For the ore averaging 0.75 OPT that figure would be $33.12 million “TOTAL ANNUAL PROFIT” for Year #1.
-EARNINGS PER SHARE: the next step would be to calculate the EARNINGS PER SHARE (EPS) figure associated with the $22.08 “TOTAL ANNUAL PROFITS” figure and the $33.12 million “TOTAL ANNUAL PROFITS” figure. Since Auryn has only 70 million shares “issued and outstanding”, the $22.08 million translates into an EPS of $22.08 million divided by 70 million shares or 31.5-cents per share. In the case of the $33.12 million “TOTAL ANNUAL PROFITS” scenario, the EPS becomes $33.12 million divided by 70 million shares equals 47.3-cents per share. (NOTE: These EPS estimates should jump out at you as being VERY LARGE because they are.)
-APPROPRIATE SHARE PRICE VALUATION: I’m not going to do the math for you, but if you multiply those EPS figures (31.5- cents and 47.3-cents) by an average “multiple” of 31 in this sector, you can get a feel for what the THEORETICALLY “appropriate” share price of Auryn might be IF ALL OF THE INPUT VARIABLES HOLD UP. NOTE: Write all of your INPUT VARIABLES and do all of your CALCULATIONS “in pencil” so that when the definitive numbers are released you can make the necessary changes.
DISCUSSION
Why go to all of this trouble and do all of this hard work? When you familiarize yourself with these 8 equations, you’ll be able to sense HOW the different INPUT VARIABLES interact with each other in order to estimate an appropriate EPS figure or an APPROPRIATE SHARE PRICE or “APPROPRIATE VALUATION” (market cap) figure.
For example, if you read in a future press release that Auryn was able to double the throughput of the FF plant, you’ll know to double your expected EPS figure or APPROPRIATE SHARE PRICE figure. The same goes if the AVERAGE GRADE is much higher or lower than the inputs used.
This thing we refer to as “the market” doesn’t necessarily understand any of the things we’ve been reviewing. There is this thing called the “EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS”. It suggests that “the market” is able to process all of the available information available on a corporation and arrive at the proper share price via the “PRICE DISCOVERY” process. Our markets are not “EFFICIENT” because the average investor is not in a position to process “all of the available information”. That’s why CASH DIVIDENDS represent “THE EQUALIZER”. You can’t argue with PROFITS, and you can’t issue CASH DIVIDENDS without PROFITS.
I have homework - gonna have to change my equations up a bit.
Rumor has it they are trying to convert MDMN to AUMC, but the first effort was legally re-buffed due to application issues… They need to re-group and go back to the courts. This could be someone blowing smoke up my a$$, but maybe, just maybe we will get a surprise dividend in 2025
Can someone catch me up on where we are? I have a half million shares of MDMN sitting at zero in my Charles Schwab account. I have some Auryn stock in my Vanguard account. I forgot about all these until recently. It looks like the Auryn stock is doing something. Is there any hope of the MDMN being converted? It seems there’s some conversation about that here.
I’ve been in these stocks now for what feels like 20 years. Geo still here? He was always a funny dude.
Have the same amount and same brokerage, awesome. I converted the $3500 value to a ROTH IRA. It is worth pennies now.
Good luck King of Pain, I am the Prince maybe.
And all the king’s horses, and all the king’s men, finally put him back together again.
Stay grounded, we’ll be packing lots of green before u know it … 
I got sick as hell and almost died. Forgot about this investment and FNMA from 5 or so years back. Was reading Reddit last night and saw FNMA and it clicked to check Vanguard and here I am again. FNMA is going the right direction, so maybe this son of a bitch will too.
Geoly still around?! A fine restaurateur, and fellow miner of pain. Mike Gold here still? Maybe still running around naked?!
GLTA man!
Glad you came back to us! A lot of activity going on on the mountain, go here:
https://aurynminingcorp.com/ for updates. Geoly pops in now and again, haven’t heard from MG in a long while.
Bubba, you still going to school ? Never to old to learn. LOL
Personally, I’d bet on the smoke.
Time flies when you are NOT having fun !
I’m good, have had enough formal schooling, but lots to learn from the resident professor, BB.
Looks like someone was so eager to get out of AUMC they let go of 150 shares on the bid, causing the pps to take such a nosedive. I can’t imagine why they didn’t place a LIMIT order to sell. Prolly not someone who follows TMP posts … well, maybe not. 
Yes, ive heard the same that its not easy to get it converted given the shenanigans that played out with MDMN and that they have attempted the process. It will happen, but Wiz mentioned that it will be a whole lot easier when AUMC can prove its a viable mining company. Things should fall into place.
Im wondering if worse comes to worse, is it possible for AUMC to take back the shares from Medinah and just issue them out directly to MDMN shareholders based on a legitimate share share count obtained from the correct agency or transfer agent?
Not sure of your meaning; “is it possible for AUMC to take back the shares from Medinah and just issue them out directly to MDMN shareholders”, I assume you mean for AURYN take another company’s shares (MDMN).
Not possible IMO, unless, AURYN does a takeover of MDMN via share issue (i.e. ~0.005 AURYN shares for each MDMN), OR , makes a $ offer for the MDMN shares, both which would have to be voted on by Medinah shareholders.
Problem is that MDMN is NON-Reporting, so 'almost like the takeover of a ‘private’ company.
Perhaps BB can chime in on the current advantages and/or pitfalls of both scenarios. (Some of which are obvious)
3rd quarter crickets!!! Big difference in saying your going to do something and actually doing it.
I feel your pain but usually the 3rd quarter update is after the 3rd quarter….
Just seems a little quiet without BE. Chiming in