FWIW - Focus on Global Economy*

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*Favorite Funds now renamed Focus on Global Economy
I found it necessary to rename this thread to hopefully give it a broader more relevant and informative focus.

Wish I’d picked IGE up much earlier. Intended as a long term hold:

Top 10 Holdings AS OF 12/31/2021

43.55%

of 119 total

CVX Chevron Corp 9.82%

XOM Exxon Mobil Corp 9.66%

COP ConocoPhillips 4.43%

ENB:CA Enbridge Inc 4.10%

FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc 3.17%

EOG EOG Resources Inc 2.69%

CNQ:CA Canadian Natural Resources Ltd 2.58%

NEM Newmont Corp 2.56%

TRP:CA TC Energy Corp 2.36%

SLB Schlumberger Ltd 2.18%

Does anyone here have favorite Funds suitable for IRA accounts for long term?

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I had originally had a focus on the delays in rebalancing of reserve currencies in the IMF and the role of SDRs. Too many rabbit holes there! While important, other factors play a much larger role of what is occurring globally. It’s apparent inflation is destroying the purchasing power of our dollar at home. Hoping to largely keep US and local politics out of this conversation and look to what measures individuals can take to preserve their purchasing power in this thread as it develops. It’s a fairly long article that I felt needed to be shown in it’s entirety so as not to lose any of the pertinent information. The KWN recent article titled “Russia, The Financial War And The War In The Gold Market” actually made me realize I wasn’t aware of SCO, and only tangentially of the role BRICS nations were playing in the demise of our currency. The KWN article is even longer, but the section titled “How durable will a commodity-based trade currency be?” led to me looking at what I present below.
I found this article of particular interest to start the conversation:

SCO And BRICS: Decoding. List Of SCO And BRICS Countries

The unstable situation in the world dictates the urgent need for countries to find new partners and support. In a situation where economic and political instability has become hypothetical, the creation of alliances has become an indispensable condition for survival. The associations of the SCO and the BRICS, the decipherment of which will be given below, work with the same goal - the creation of a balance of power in the world.

THE ERA OF INTEGRATION

The 21st century is considered to be the era of integration and unification. That is why the associations of the SCO and the BRICS have entered into a struggle for the balance of power in the world. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or SCO, has nothing to do with NATO or with ASEAN, a regular security meeting. Coalition belongs to an intermediate position. A certain Eurasian space is being formed, which intends to actively defend its interests before the West. America keeps its hand on the pulse and is actively engaged in several alliances at the same time:

  • Transatlantic trade association.
  • The trans-Pacific trade pact between Asia and America.

Russia and China are left out. And if we take into account aggressive sanctions against Russia on the part of the West, then the significance of the SCO acquires a completely different meaning. The role of BRICS in the world economy is no less justified.

THE ROLE OF THE SCO AND THE BRICS

The SCO structure includes Russia and China, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In the near future, the tandem is planned to be replenished by India and Pakistan. According to the Russian government, it is this association that will allow solving a number of topical domestic problems. The representation of China is perfectly aware of the situation in the country, since it itself is experiencing inconveniences because of sanctions from America and Europe. The restrictions imposed in 1989 were only partially lifted.

The BRICS goal, which includes Russia and China, Brazil and India, South Africa, is moving forward. The abbreviation is formed from the English abbreviation BRICS - the first letters of the grouping states (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). The economic potential of these countries is very high, since they own half of world production. On the dominance of the world market, according to representatives of organizations, it does not go. The issue of associations affects only the topic of complete independence from Europe and America.

The forecasters say that in the near future the SCO and the BRICS, the decoding of which is given above, will significantly push the world economic elite due to rich natural resources, a strong production base and developed agriculture. It’s also worth adding a good intellectual potential.

SCO STRUCTURE

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is governed by the Council of Heads of State, which it includes. Any decisions are taken within the framework of summits held annually in the territory of one of the member countries of the association. This year, the SCO summit and BRICS will be held in June in Ufa. The conference will discuss issues of multilateral cooperation. The council plans to approve the budget and establish relations with other international associations. The executive body of the association is the secretariat. One of the permanent bodies is the RATS in Tashkent, the decisive antiterrorist task.

A BIT FROM THE HISTORY OF BRICS

BRICS includes five countries, which are classified as new industrial ones. They are characterized not only by powerful but also rapidly developing economies, active influence on regional and global markets. Each of the members of the association is a member of the G-20. Already by 2013, the total GDP of countries reached a figure of 16.039 trillion dollars. The first BRICS summit, whose countries are able to influence the economy, caused the dollar to fall, as the heads of state raised the issue of creating a single stable and predictable currency. The association encourages commercial and political, cultural cooperation between peoples. Moreover, today the member countries of the union are taking active steps to establish their own financial institution, which would be able to compose worthy competition to the West.

ECONOMIC COOPERATION

The associations of the SCO and the BRICS, the decoding of which indicates that they include countries with great potential, signed a framework agreement. Its goal is to improve the productivity of economic partnership. Back in 2004, an agreement was signed on the formation of a free trade zone , which largely balanced the flow of goods in the regions.

In 2005, member countries of the groups agreed on joint projects in the oil and gas segment, rational distribution of water resources and carbon stocks. In order to finance joint activities, the Interbank Council was formed.

Each SCO summit and BRICS brings good results and foretells global changes. So, in 2009, representatives of China received a proposal to provide $ 10 billion to partner countries for active development, which allowed them to support their economy in the conditions of the then global crisis.

RELATIONS WITH THE WEST

In the opinion of the media and many world experts, it is the SCO and the BRICS in the first place that should be worthy of competition not only for America, but for NATO as well. This will avoid a number of conflicts that could open the way for the US to the economies of states that border China and Russia. Representatives of associations actively monitor the situation on the world stage. Despite the total lack of open criticism towards America in general and Washington in particular, the summits often discuss problems of this category. For example, in 2005, the issue of finding the US military on the territory of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan was actively raised. The SCO asked the US to establish clear deadlines for the withdrawal of troops from the territory of the member countries of the association. Moreover, the closure of the K-2 airbase was stimulated.

THE BRICS STATES

The countries-members of BRICS occupy the positions of the leading and actively developing markets of the world. The main interest is caused by India, Brazil and China. In the next five years their significance will only increase. States such as Indonesia and South Africa are potential candidates for joining the association. The main priorities set by the member countries of the alliance are not the reduction of production costs, but the formation of a material base that should stimulate long-term success in the markets of states. The SCO and BRICS volunteers take an active part in research and in analysis to make the partnership even more fruitful.

DEVELOPMENT BANK - A REVOLUTION IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

For many years now, the unification of the SCO and the BRICS, the decoding of which shows that they are defending their interests before the West, are aimed at creating a single financial institution. In connection with the situation in the world in 2014-2015, this area of partnership has become more active. The project, which began in 2009, based on existing factors, is finally coming to its logical conclusion. The Development Bank has already been approved. Moreover, numerous issues have been resolved: the management has been selected, the contribution to the financial institution from all participating countries has been determined, the location of the organization and its first headquarters has been determined. At the moment, the structure is actively filled with representatives of each of the member states of the association. The SCO and BRICS countries, whose list is very limited, are actively tuned in this issue. On the agenda were secondary tasks, in particular regarding the right to participate in the financial institutions of states that are not part of the structure of associations. Priority is given to a minimum of bureaucratic processes for the most accelerated procedure for consideration and acceptance of investment projects. If the plan succeeds, the world markets will be radically changed.

(SCO and BRICS: decoding. List of SCO and BRICS countries)

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There are quite a few articles reporting the June virtual Summit meeting:

How durable will a commodity-based trade currency be?
June 24, 2022
In a move to strengthen cooperation and promote economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, BRICS countries agreed this week during the bloc’s virtual Summit to launch the BRICS Business Forum, which they regard as an effective tool to achieve the association’s goals.

“We support comprehensive, close, practical, and inclusive cooperation and stand ready to actively contribute to the strengths of the business community to this end,” said the initiative, which sees emerging economies and developing countries as “important forces in driving global economic recovery.”

Regarding health cooperation, the initiative calls for solidarity to address the challenges generated by COVID-19 through measures such as strengthening research on vaccines and promoting exchanges of knowledge on traditional medicine.

The initiative also expressed its support for an open, transparent, fair, inclusive, non-discriminatory, and law-based multilateral trading system, and called on BRICS countries to increase trade cooperation to strengthen transparency in the business environment, while deepening exchanges in e-commerce, intellectual property rights, and other trade issues at all levels.

The BRICS Forum also called for promoting global sustainable development and accelerating the ecological transition, embracing the digital economy, and strengthening the resilience of industrial and supply chains.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, who hosted the virtual 14th BRICS Summit, also called on BRICS countries to safeguard global peace and tranquility, persist in development, and unleash the potential and vitality of cooperation.

“Standing at this historic crossroads, we should review the path already traveled and always keep in mind why we BRICS countries started up, and at the same time work together for a shared future of a high-quality partnership that is more comprehensive, closer, practical and inclusive, with a view to jointly launching a new march of BRICS cooperation,” said Xi.

Xi also called on BRICS countries to persist in standing in solidarity and safeguarding global peace and tranquility. He added BRICS countries should support each other in matters touching their respective core interests, practice true multilateralism, uphold justice, fairness, and solidarity, and reject hegemony, thuggery, and division.

“This year, we have held the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and the Senior National Security Representatives’ Meeting, deepened cooperation in the areas such as counter-terrorism and cybersecurity, and promoted coordination in the UN and other multilateral frameworks, speaking out for justice on the international stage,” he said.

Xi also underlined the Initiative for Global Security (ISG). “The Chinese side is willing to work together with BRICS partners to make the ISG translate into concrete actions and tangible results, thus injecting stability and positive energy into the world.”

“So far this year, we have launched the BRICS Initiative on Strengthening Supply Chain Cooperation and the Initiative on Trade and Investment for Sustainable Development, adopted the Agreement on Cooperation and Mutual Administrative Assistance in Customs Matters and the Strategy for Cooperation on Food Security, and held for the first time the High-Level Meeting on Climate Change,” Xi also pointed out.

BRICS countries must take full advantage of these new platforms to promote the connectivity of industrial and supply chains, and jointly respond to challenges in areas such as poverty alleviation, agriculture, energy, and logistics, among others, Xi insisted, as he highlighted the fact that BRICS countries, instead of being a closed club or a small exclusive circle, are a big family of mutual support and a win-win cooperation partnership.

“This year, for the first time, we have had other countries as guests at the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. The newly established BRICS Vaccine Research and Development Center has an unequivocal commitment to openness. ”Step by step, we have carried out various ‘BRICS Plus’ activities in the areas such as scientific-technological innovation, people-to-people exchange, and sustainable development, thus engaging new cooperation platforms of emerging markets and developing countries,“ he added.

”Those who know how to seize the opportunities of the new economy such as big data and artificial intelligence will rightly take the pulse of our time,“ Xi also underscored.

”This year, we have accelerated the construction of the Xiamen Innovation Center of the BRICS New Industrial Revolution Partnership, convened the Forum on Industrial Internet Development and Digital Manufacturing and the Forum on Macro data for Sustainable Development, achieved the Digital Economy Partnership Framework, launched the Manufacturing Industry Digitalization Cooperation Initiative, and established the network of technology transfer centers and the mechanism for aerospace cooperation,“ Xi said.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that ”the countries of our bloc are deepening cooperation on the entire range of issues on the global and regional agenda. And every year the authority of the BRICS and its influence on the global stage is steadily increasing.“

Putin also pointed out that this is an objective process since the five countries have truly great economic, scientific, technological, and human potential. They can effectively work together to ensure international stability and security, sustainable growth and prosperity, and the well-being of their people.

The Russian leader also pinpointed that the transnational nature of the challenges and threats the international community faces demands a search for collective responses with the bloc’s active participation. ”We have repeatedly said that only together we can solve such problems as conflict resolution, combating terrorism, organized crime, including the criminal use of new technologies, combating climate change, and the spread of dangerous infections.”
(BRICS Summit sees new role for the bloc in a changing world — MercoPress)

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This is a very interesting interview about the changing times we live in. It highlights gold’s past and future role. I was not familiar with Frank Giustra or the extraordinary success he has had in the mining industry. Also, I do not currently have a position in ARIS as I was not aware of it, although his new company is being presented. It’s an interview I think you will enjoy and find extremely informative.

( Gold's Role in a Changing World Order: Finance Titan Frank Giustra - YouTube)
Introduction 00:00
Spanish conquistador Francisco Pizarro’s famous chest 00:41
Frank’s hyperinflation experience in Argentina in the 1970s 03:44
How inflation happens and Frank’s economic outlook 06:51
Protecting wealth in stagflation 13:03
Calling the bottom in the 2000 gold market 17:17
Building a new gold miner which became the world’s largest 20:37
Frank and Ian Telfer on building Goldcorp and working together 24:04
Their new startup, Aris Gold (TSX:ARIS) 26:24
Frank’s thesis for a global monetary reset 27:40
Why China is like a “Big black hole” for gold 28:40
Gold’s relevance in a digital world 32:50
Different types of gold investments 36:59
What kept the Giustra’s together during crisis 42:33
Chef Frank shares his love for food 43:21

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WHY GOLD IS NOT PERFORMING
If you haven’t been staying informed on global currencies and FED interest rate strategies Mr. Gentile has a very easy to follow explanation of what is going on. This is not a repeat of the 1970s!
Click on link to view video:
(https://youtu.be/IfhKKsymvOw)

FED Rate Hikes Graph
FED Rate Hikes Graph907×624 226 KB

This is what happens when the FED Fund rate increases the interest rate too high ( the rate that services the debt). This graphic view from the video above is accompanied by Michael’s clear explanation of his US Debt Thesis - basically he’s saying as (FED FUND rate high X the National Debt) a crisis follows in every case! The dot com bubble, the housing crisis, the 2018 mini crash …

There will be stocks besides the precious metal (PM) miners that do very well, but many of the very profitable cash flow positive PM miners with huge proven reserve deposits will go up in a parabolic fashion. Also selective spec stocks. There’s a lot that can be commented and speculated here. Expect volatility!

30 year GOLD chart
30 year GOLD chart841×464 29.6 KB

(Current Spot Price of Gold - Spot Gold Chart)

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A bit surprised there has been no interest or insights posted by others here in this space. This is something to pay attention to if you value your investments, IMO. Surprised no one else has mentioned that paper trades of precious metals in China may be ending. Will this catapult the global price of gold and silver in other currencies sooner than later?

Deadline: August 15. Chinese Merchants Bank say bye-bye to paper PM trading.

After the new account opening of paper PM banning, commercial banks will close the door of buying paper PM on August 15. China Merchants Bank asked customers to clear positions before October 17.

Banks tighten Precious Metal Business - Suspend PM Paper Trades
Banks tighten Precious Metal Business - Suspend PM Paper Trades720×708 106 KB

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Interesting!

U.S. military weighs funding mining projects in Canada amid rivalry with China

Canadian companies told they qualify under Defense Production Act

Alexander Panetta— Nov 13 2022

The United States military has been quietly soliciting applications for Canadian mining projects that want American public funding through a major national security initiative.

It’s part of an increasingly urgent priority of the U.S. government: lessening dependence on China for critical minerals that are vital in everything from civilian goods such as electronics, cars and batteries, to weapons.

It illustrates how Canadian mining is becoming the nexus of a colossal geopolitical struggle. Ottawa just pushed Chinese state-owned companies out of the sector, and the U.S. is now considering moving public funding in.

The American military has a new pot of money at its disposal to help private companies inaugurate new mining projects; it’s for funding feasibility studies, plant renovations, battery-recycling and worker training.

President Joe Biden invoked the 1950 Defense Production Act to expand the domestic mining sector, and the military received hundreds of millions of dollars to implement it.

This whirlwind of activity was prompted by a White House study last year warning that dependence on certain foreign-made products represents a national security risk to the U.S., and it cited semiconductors, batteries, medicines and 53 types of minerals.

An official from the U.S. Department of Defence this week provided a briefing on the program at a cross-border conference, and he made one thing clear about the funding: Canadians qualify.

That’s because Canada has, for decades, belonged to the U.S. military industrial base and is every bit as entitled to the cash as American mining projects.

· Canada eyes cash for critical minerals in Biden’s big new climate bill

“It’s really quite simple. It’s a matter of law,” said Matthew Zolnowski, a portfolio manager for the Defense Production Act program, speaking to a gathering of the Canada-United States Law Institute in Washington, D.C.

“So an investment in Alberta or Quebec or Nova Scotia would be no different than if it was in Nebraska or anywhere else in the United States. As a matter of law.”

Canadian government provides list of 70 projects

(see link below for full article)

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2022/11/13/u-s-military-weighs-funding-mining-projects-in-canada-amid-rivalry-with-china/#.Y3FTwuATFPw

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If you are wondering what influence the BRICS countries will have on the world economies and why it warrants examination by all, this article gives a brief glimpse of what to expect. Will the price of gold and silver, and thus PM mining stocks be effected? How about other commodities and currencies?

The New Candidate Countries For BRICS Expansion

Nov 09, 2022Posted by Silk Road BriefingWritten by Chris Devonshire-Ellis

If accepted, the new proposed BRICS members would create an entity with a GDP 30% larger than the United States, over 50% of the global population and in control of 60% of global gas reserves.

By Chris Devonshire-Ellis

The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov has stated that ‘over a dozen’ countries have formally applied to join the BRICS grouping following the groups decision to allow new members earlier this year. The BRICS currently includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

It is not a free trade bloc, but members do coordinate on trade matters and have established a policy bank, the New Development Bank , (NDB) to coordinate infrastructure loans. That was set up in 2014 in order to provide alternative loan mechanisms from the IMF and World Bank structures, which the members had felt had become too US-centric. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was set up by China at about the same time for largely the same reasons and to offer alternative financing than that provided by the IMF and World Banks, which were felt to impose political reform policies designed to assist the United States in return for providing loans. Both the NDB and AIIB banks are Triple A rated and capitalised at US$100 billion. The NDB bank shares are held equally by each of the five members. In total, the BRICS grouping as it currently stands accounts for over 40% of the global population and nearly a quarter of the world’s GDP. The GDP figure is expected to double to 50% of global GDP by 2030. Expanding BRICS will immediately accelerate that process.

Concerning a BRICS expansion, Lavrov stated that Algeria , Argentina, and Iran had all applied, while it is already known that Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt and Afghanistan are interested, along with Indonesia , which is expected to make a formal application to join at the upcoming G20 summit in Bali.

Other likely contenders for membership include Kazakhstan, Nicaragua , Nigeria, Senegal, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates. All had their Finance Ministers present at the BRICS Expansion dialogue meeting held in May.

We can examine the basic economic data of the proposed new BRICS members as follows. GDP figures given are nominal, 2022 growth rates are based on the first 9 months of the year from data issued by the respective Central Banks.

(https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2022/11/09/the-new-candidate-countries-for-brics-expansion/#:~:text=The%20BRICS%20currently%20includes%20Brazil%2C%20Russia%2C%20India%2C%20China,New%20Development%20Bank%2C%20(NDB)%20to%20coordinate%20infrastructure%20loans.)

The complete article can be found in the link above for those who may be interested.

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Central Bank Gold Reserves have risen to slightly less than highest level since November 1974 (36,782t).

Global CB Reserves
Global CB Reserves1307×803 109 KB

Why central banks are stockpiling gold

Thu, December 1, 2022, 3:43 AM·3 min read

In 1968 the London Bullion Market closed for two weeks. The world’s largest precious-metal market had run out of gold, drained by a five-month run on America’s stash by European central banks. The crisis marked the beginning of the end for the Bretton Woods standard that had kept the dollar pegged to gold, and currencies elsewhere to the dollar, since 1944.

Now central banks are furiously buying gold again (see chart). In the third quarter alone 400 tonnes moved into their reserves. That has pushed the total from January to September to 670 tonnes, a pace unseen since the Bullion Market debacle. In May Turkey snapped up almost 20 tonnes in one go. India and Qatar are also ravenous. The metal now makes up two-thirds of Uzbekistan’s reserves, months after it planned to reduce gold to under half. Kazakhstan is also doubling down.

In part this is because gold, snubbed in good times because it generates no yield, recovers its shine in times of volatility and high inflation. In the long run, it is seen as a store of value and, not tied to any individual economy, seems immune to local political and financial turmoil. Central bankers may also think they are getting a bargain. Even though it has resisted better than most, the price of the metal has dropped 3% this year. Gold bugs expect a rebound.

Like in the past, however, buying gold bars is also a way to ditch some dollars. Except this time it is not Europe but emerging markets who grumble about the greenback. They need dollars to pay for imports and external debts. But their reserves are mostly made of treasuries, not actual banknotes. And as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, buoying yields, the value of government paper has dropped. Lesser central banks have taken this as a cue to swap them for precious metal rather than bet on the Fed taming inflation.
(https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-central-banks-stockpiling-gold-114340850.html)

See entire article at above link.

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From the Economist Magazine.
:The world’s most valuable resource is no longer oil, but data.

Maybe the buying of gold is linked to that in some way?
Maybe it will be Linked to Data such as … Indias Aadhaar cards?
Which Key Aspects Of Aadhaar Are Beneficial To Business? -SignDesk

; The use of Aadhaar would enable the use of digitally driven credit which would result in people shifting to operate in the formal economy as opposed to the current statistic – 90% of the Indian economy operates in the informal sectors of the economy.

Aadhaar systems are also in line with India’s ambition of becoming a cashless currency economy.
The World Is Changing Before Us. C.s.

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I started this thread last summer focusing on the troubling delays the IMF had in the rebalancing of reserve currencies. Too many rabbit holes to follow solely on that aspect of what is going on globally. I regained a new focus, but have now returned to the topic of Basel III and it’s effect in the global financial reforms taking place. July 21, 2021 on the the Other Mining Stocks thread (now closed) I posted:

“Is this anywhere near the bottom, or as Basel III is scheduled to be enacted at the end of the month have any effect at all? Physical Gold changes from a Tier 3 (which includes paper contracts) asset to a Tier 1 (physical allocated gold) asset for banks. Here is an excerpt from a much longer article that has a very clear explanation of what Basel III is all about.”

Some changes called for in Basel 3 were so extreme that some revisions were made and implementation was repeatedly delayed. As it now stands, some of the impact of Basel 3 takes effect at the end of June this year, while all changes become effective on Jan. 1, 2023.

The goal of the forthcoming Basel regulations is to limit the levels of risk that banks take on in the pursuit of profits, which would hopefully prevent a major worldwide financial crisis if markets turn negative. It’s a wonderful idea in theory. However, in practice, some changes could be so disruptive to the actions of some governments, central banks and financial institutions that there is already pushback.

Part of the Basel 3 regulations that could be especially disruptive are those involving bank trading of precious metals.

It looks like gold may have bottomed in August, but there is still a lot of volatility. I think this more recent update was interesting enough to bring to the thread’s attention (note - This is only an excerpt of a longer article published November 21, 2022):

Remember Basel III? It seems to be working

Finance show Live from the Vault commemorated its 100th episode (video) with a discussion of the slow, steady and earth-shaking implementation of the Basel agreement. It was the talk of the town heading up to its scheduled date, but nowadays, it’s as if nobody wants to mention it. Why? As guest Andrew Maguire explains, it’s a bit of an awkward subject in the banking system.

The host explains that a 50-year unwinding of paper market leverage is taking place and accelerating. The pair go back to 30 months ago when COMEX had its liquidity squeeze which was downplayed to say the least. They believe it helped plant the seeds for Basel III to do its thing, particularly noting that a spread of $80 to $100 between the paper and physical gold price was a kind of point of no return for any gold that isn’t bullion. This spread is now not only the norm, but appears to be growing wider.

Maguire shares plenty of insider knowledge and details that went under the radar, such as the massive bailout that took place as the gold liquidity squeeze happened to avoid a banking collapse on the spot. Of greater interest right now, however, is perhaps that the Bank for International Settlements is trying to cut its exposure to obviously risky paper gold. In other words, the BIS wanted “good delivery” on 500 tons of gold for reasons that the episode makes all too apparent.

The Kinesis Money director explains that individual investors are now competing with central banks, as the latter are scrambling to buy gold due to wide expectations of a price re-evaluation. To central banks, the expected boom in gold’s price as the paper market’s liquidity gets squeezed further is going to be a convenient way of paying off their sovereign debt. These central banks have made good use of short-squeezers’ artificially lowered prices to load up, as we have reported month after month.

Silver is no different, with Maguire saying that COMEX is being attacked, in a sense, left and right for physical delivery. He says that $30 by the end of the year wouldn’t be surprising, as the current price is neither fair nor realistic. In general, he says that we’re in the middle of the most bullish event in the gold market since 2008.

Among the plethora of interesting information that the pair provide, of special note is Maguire’s attention to the unwinding of options this year, starting on November 22 but really coming into place on December 27th. This could already be enough to send gold anywhere between $2,000-$2,400, but as he reiterates many times, the 50-year ill experiment is only starting to unravel.

The whole show is well worth your attention! Here are links directly to the most interesting segments:

(2023 Likely a Great Year for Gold, Bad for Everything Else)

The full article includes multiple reasons why gold will breakout in 2023 (or sooner). Comments by Rick Rule with some additional links dominate that section of the article. Discussions on the dollars volatility, permanent higher inflation and the “commodity super cycle” are also included. There is also a focus on the Central Banks dumping Treasury bonds and the Fed’s anti-inflationary efforts.

I post this article only for informative purposes only, not a recommendation.

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A Dollar Collapse Is Now In Motion, Saudi Arabia Signals The End Of ‘Petro’ Status

FRIDAY, JAN 27, 2023 - 05:20 AM

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

The decline of a currency’s world reserve status is often a long process rife with denials. There are numerous economic “experts” out there that have been dismissing any and all warnings of dollar collapse for years. They just don’t get it, or they don’t want to get it. The idea that the US currency could ever be dethroned as the defacto global trade mechanism is impossible in their minds.
One of the key pillars keeping the dollar in place as the world reserve is its petro-status, and this factor is often held up as the reason why the Greenback cannot fail. The other argument is that the dollar is backed by the full force of the US military, and the US military is backed by the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve – In other words, the dollar is backed by…the dollar; it’s a very circular and naive position.

These sentiments are not only pervasive among mainstream economists, they are also all over the place within the alternative media. I suspect the main hang-up for liberty movement analysts is the notion that the globalist establishment would ever allow the dollar or the US economy to fail. Isn’t the dollar system their “golden goose”?

The answer is no, it is NOT their golden goose. The dollar is just another stepping stone towards their goal of a one-world economy and a one-world currency. They have killed the world reserve status of other currencies in the past, why wouldn’t they do the same to the dollar?

Globalist white papers and essays specifically outline the need for a diminished role for the US currency as well as a decline in the American economy in order to make way for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and a new global currency system controlled by the IMF. I warned about this years go, and my position has always been that the derailment of the dollar would likely start with the end of its petro status.

In 2017 I published an article titled ‘Saudi Coup Signals War And The New World Order Reset’. I noted at the time that the sudden power shift over to crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman indicated a change in Saudi Arabia’s relationship to the US. I stated that:

“To understand how drastic this coup has been, consider this — for decades Saudi Kings maintained political balance by doling out vital power positions to separate, carefully chosen successors. Positions such as Defense Minister, the Interior Ministry and the head of the National Guard. Today, Mohammed Bin Salman controls all three positions. Foreign policy, defense matters, oil and economic decisions and social changes are now all in the hands of one man.”

The rise of MBS was backed by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), a fund comprised of trillions of dollars supplied by globalists within Carlyle Group (Bush family, etc.), Goldman Sachs, Blackstone and Blackrock. MBS garnered the favor of the globalists for one specific reason – He openly supported their “Vision For 2030”, a plan for the dismantling of “fossil fuel” based energy and the implementation of carbon controls. Yes, that’s right, the head of Saudi Arabia is backing the eventual end of oil based energy, and part of that includes the end of the dollar as the petro currency.

In exchange for their cooperation, the Saudis are being given access to ESG-like funding as well as access to AI advancements and the so-called “digital economy.” It sounds crazy, but there is much talk of AI developments to cure numerous health problems and extend lifespan. With those kinds of promises, it’s not surprising that Saudi elites would be willing to dump the dollar and even oil.
(Zerohedge)

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Some Information on India and its future. Be sure to read the comments

(BRICS’s plan to float a common currency & India’s reaction to it)

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BRICS expansion still work in progress: EAM Jaishankar

Among the countries reportedly seeking membership in the BRICS bloc are Egypt and the Middle Eastern oil-producing nations of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

South American countries seeking its membership include Venezuela and Argentina. The BRICS bloc brings together five of the largest developing countries of the world, representing 41 per cent of the global population, 24 per cent of the global GDP and 16 per cent of the global trade.

(https://www.financialexpress.com/business/defence-brics-expansion-still-work-in-progress-eam-jaishankar-3112373/)

Expansion of BRICS: The bloc has become a new ‘brand’ in international politics, says expert

(https://www.financialexpress.com/business/defence/expansion-of-brics-the-bloc-has-become-a-new-brand-in-international-politics-says-expert/3191434/)

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Perhaps an understanding of the cycles that repeat throughout history is included in this data, especially as it relates to gold, currencies, central banks, inflation etc. Historical perspective is key to understanding where we are today in the overall scheme of things.

“The Fourth Turning theory, also known as the Strauss-Howe generational theory , describes a recurring generational cycle that follows a fairly predictable pattern.”

Dalio applies an interpretation of this theory of recurring cycles in history to the economics of geopolitical events occurring today. The general concept is that cycles reoccur at regular intervals and also at intervals of a generation, roughly a human lifetime. According to the theory we are in the 4th turning, again. There are larger cycles that govern the rise and fall of empires.

Dalio’s video is a simplification of what is apparently occurring today in a greatly simplified fashion. Watch and learn as we are living history in the making.

“Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order”
Key Sections:
1:33 - How I Learned to Anticipate the Future by Studying the Past
8:00 - Changing Orders
11:38 - The Big Cycle
18:26 - 500 Years of Big Cycles
18:45 - The Rise
26:16 – The Top
32:01- The Decline
39:39 - The Future

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If you want a dose of reality, I highly recommend listening to the broadcast below in it’s entirety. The small bubble of reality many of us experience needs a more global macro view. The US economy is changing rapidly. 50 states now require more than $140K/yr to achieve the American dream! Why? 38 states require that $140K to own a home. There is a failure in trust. News networks that don’t create anything but divisiveness are heavily censored by omission of pertient facts. $175T in unfunded Liabilities now exist is the US. Inflation is a result of policy. Oil and gold earlier this year, under Basel 3, finally managed to reclassify Gold as the only other Tier 1 asset for government issued debt instruments. Currencies are being remonetized globally for International settlements. The values assigned to the reserve currencies in the IMF are being transformed.

Okay, these are just expert opinions and observations. Much of what goes on is highly dependent on international trade and the currency used to transact it. Much of the political infighting revolves around ideology and especially economic issues within each country. FWIW, there is good liquidity as well as volatility in many stock markets around the world. The US dollar is still the major reserve currency used in international trade, but that is rapidly changing. US investors (those holding retirement funds) are in for a very major change if they are not paying attention to the global markets (BRICS) as well as the domestic Bubble (meltup) market. I’m convinced things may drastically change in October when the BRICS countries meet next.

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