Crazy few minutes of trading today.
Who is the seller?
Mdmn update showed their hand that shareholders will benefit in the future from the 15% interest but it would be great if they would also give us some insight into what will happen with the 100 mill.
Maybe that would help get the pps moving with the time frame for execution getting closer (August 2017 at the latestâŚnot that I expect it to be that long). We could get interest from people not wanting to be chasing the buy when the funds are received.
Ready or not: Itâs silver and gold smash day
Iâve never doubted the NSS theory. In fact in my mind it is no theory. It is the 800lb Gorilla that is keeping our share price down. They have the most to lose if the share price escalates and they have the biggest clout to move/manipulate markets, specially in pinky land.
Always follow the money. Who has the most at stake to lose here? And you will find your answer(s).
In time, as the Business Plan continues to move along, it will all settle out.
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This selling is relentless! Constant BID wacking going on
Thanks CHG,
I think a case could be made that Medinahâs taking $57 million in cash (versus $100 million)plus the âextraâ 24 percentage points (making a total of 39%) should be at least considered. The key is what return could the cash make on an annual basis (perhaps 3%) versus the growth projection for those extra percentage points in AMC. If AMC successfully goes public on perhaps the TSX or TSX.V then the value will get a bump upwards. So too when AMC goes into production. A completed NI 43-101 (needed to go public) would also give it a bump. Any upward movement in the currently so-so metals prices would also give it a bump upwards in value.
The initial tax hit would be less with less up front cash. Weâd have to know the marginal tax rate on the last $43 million of that $100 million. The question becomes will there be a market if Medinah wanted to sell those âextraâ 24 percentage points and would they take in more than $43 million they gave up after enjoying all of those bump ups in value. If a major wanted to come in and wanted a minimum of perhaps one third of the action then that might work out nicely. I would assume, however, that AMC would get a right of first refusal. Extra percentage points in AMC are assets which are run by qualified mining professionals.
From AMCâs point of view, their âcost of capitalâ would be a lot less than if they had to come up with the entire $100 million. To the investment community, would Medinah look more attractive with the extra cash or the extra percentage points? Since the extra percentage points would be attached to a bigger percentage of the cash flow from the earlier and later production opportunities how long would it take for Medinah to offset the lesser amount of cash? What effect would there be on any future dividends on a per share basis?
If youâre expecting positive cash flow for perhaps 30 years or so and youâre interested in dividending out some of those profits over that long of a period THE KEY IS TO BUY BACK AND CANCEL AS MANY ULTRA CHEAP SHARES UP FRONT AS YOU CAN. This will supercharge those dividends on a âper shareâ basis FOR ALL OF THOSE YEARS. If your mine life was only 3 months then who cares but if it is to be measured in multiple decades then an intense HIGHLY LEVERAGED share buy buck program when the DISCONNECT is in place seems to be worthy of consideration. The question surrounds the UTILITY of any up front cash in between $57 million and $100 million in the short term versus the marginal taxes paid on it instantly.
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After all the good news that has come out about this stock, if you want to tell me thereâs NOT something stinky going on with this market, you need a mental examination. Who in his right mind would be selling so aggressively and for such a long period of time? Maybe a few folks who need money to pay bills - but I donât think that accounts for such sustained selling over a long period of time.
Hereâs a suggestion: Take a look at Buy-Ins.net - Iâve been following these folks for awhile and find that short squeezes do occur. Say what you want about the proprietor, but Iâve seen things go very nicely over there.
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[quote=âMikeGold, post:227, topic:952â]
Not really sure what is going on but it would not surprise me if Medinah may have rejected a recent Auryn offer to change the terms to exercise the option to something other than the $100 million cash.
I suspect now Auryn will be using money from production to come up with the necessary $100 million
[/quote] I agree. Simply means BOD and AURYN are definitely cooperating to make this âdealâ happen and move to explore, define and mine the mountain in the most expeditious manner. Given the current market and economic environment it eliminates most of the uncertainty inherent in mining without resorting to a lowball TO as an alternative. I see nothing wrong with Medinah receiving 5% of early production, and eventually another 15% of the 95% which includes LDM/NUOCO and Fortuna that will increase the overall value of AURYN, all within the timeframe of the original $100M option agreement.
âThe most lucrative part of the contract will be the retained interest returning dividends for the entire life of the Altos de Lipangue mine properties.â
This, from yesterdayâs update, is likely what stands the best chance in correcting the price per share issues, along with the dividend issued from the $100M.
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Absolutely agree and would just add âway over correctâ.
Isnât it worth considering the risk in valuing AMC/Maglas at the rumored $180M?? Wouldnât we be entitled to twice as many shares if AMC was valued at $90M? Given the reality of todayâs market in precious metals it is very difficult to get any level of comfort with a randomly assigned private valuation for a company that doesnât even have a formal resource report. Iâll be the first to admit, if early production ramps up to a $30-$50M annualized run rate, we could support a higher valuation but $200M would still be aggressive until a loooong mine life (read: millions of reserves) was established.
Just because Chapin/JJ/LP and Cerro decided to take shares of AMC with a $200M valuation doesnât mean that the number holds water. Outside of locking down the ADL/LDM 20 years ago, these gentlemen havenât had a single success in any deals or additional acquisitions.
Iâd much rather wait an extra 6 months, get the full $100M in CASH, and take advantage of any disconnect (if it still exists) at that point.
The issues with this investment tend to be perpetuated by the same errors in judgement. First we take worthless shares from Ulandia/Amarant and now there is discussion of taking shares of a private company whoâs main assets are those of MDMN! This violates the most basic laws of common sense investing and creates additional risk.
If the market (and AMC) believed that MDMN would remain firm with the $100M we would all be seeing significantly higher prices. Post like these (from BBoy) erode confidence. IMHO
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I am so confused where people are getting this info from? Yesterdays News states MDMN gets 100 MILLION (STILL) 15% INTEREST in Auryn
Yes, the last thing we need is anyone providing years of post after post eroding confidence. 
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