My level of confidence on this is high…as in 1 to 3 months.
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Hopefully there will be some kind of official announcement on this point so our level of confidence can be even higher than yours… 
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Mike, would you/could you be willing to elaborate on this point?
Les is in control. Fine, but what does that mean?
JJ still owns the shares. What kind of control does Les have on the shares? Can he decide when to sell, who to sell them to and how much for the shares?
How does all this change the dynamics of this transaction between Auryn and JJ?
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The sum total of all the rumor fragments adds up to success short term.
Of course, it needs to be stressed…very carefully read upcoming Auryn announcements if you are looking for facts…MP is for entertainment purposes only to help shareholders cope with the long days between news!
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PDAC is 2 weeks away let’s see if Auryn is going to release more news before then
OT but I want to thank Rick again for the MUX call! At least one of my investments is enjoying the pop in gold.
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Andy, not saying Auryn won’t be releasing news very soon, but I have been to PDAC about 6 times, Companies save up the “big” news until the start of PDAC to give them the buzz to talk about with investors.
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And there goes the bid whack! Obviously the seller is still there. If les has control of JJ shares (which I doubt) why can’t he stop IT!
I would prefer to hold out for the $100,000,000. and demand a cut from the production on the claims that we own until the option is exercised. moo
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Hi Lean,
I don’t feel as comfortable PREDICTING the exact way things will play out as you do. I don’t feel that I have the visibility. In the macro market I see miners reporting record production right and left. This doesn’t mean that anybody is making any money necessarily. What jumps out at me is the LACK OF NEW HIGH GRADE DISCOVERIES WITHIN FAVORABLE INFRASTRUCTURES. The majors are not replacing their reserves very well. In regards to the projects within their pipelines that they are not currently developing there’s a reason they’re not developing them. It usually has to do with relatively low grade, depth of emplacement, lousy infrastructures and increased geopolitical risk.
I’ve never seen the supply and demand of ADL type deposits (huge and with many early production opportunities) so skewed. If I had to predict our fate, I would not rule out a major league 3rd party putting their arms around AMC and Medinah and saying “We want in”. I would guess it might be one of the big Cu/Mo players because of the size of the deposit suggested by the recent moly findings and the previous Andesitic porphyry found by Nuoco. AMC is in the driver’s seat because they have the option and EXCLUSIVITY until the option expiry date.
I’m not sure if they’d be amenable to dividing up their portion of the post-option exercising pie or not at this particular time. Might AMC be in this for a gigantic “flip” or is this a feather in their hat that they want to develop by themselves? I sense that the extension of the “Early Cretaceous Porphyry Belt” in Chile’s Coastal Range all of the way down to the ADL is going to be noticed by a lot of mining folks. Everybody and their brother are heading to the Chilean Coastal Range in order to circumvent the POWER and WATER issues in the Andes and in the Atacama Desert. I wish I owned the concessions north of Mambo and south of Llahuin.
There’s a lot of LEVERAGE out there for AMC at this stage of development. AMC has 3 years of EXCLUSIVITY. They put in $10 million and increase the value of the mountain perhaps $100 million. Then they put in another $10 million and all of a sudden the NPV increases another $150 million. I suspect that they do not have any problem in raising money so it would have to take some pretty sweet terms, I suspect, for them to bring in a major partner when all of that LEVERAGE is out there. This would obviously represent a wonderful exit strategy for Medinah but if their percentage points in AMC are growing in value by leaps and bounds it would take pretty generous terms for Medinah to sell all or most of their AMC ownership points.
We saw how quickly the terms of the Nuoco and Cerro options got tossed to the side in favor of some other deal structure. With all of these early production opportunities on Medinah’s land I would think that Medinah’s option terms with AMC might represent a FLOOR for a restructuring with who knows who.
If any early production opportunities were not even on the table back when the option was drafted, I would think of them as a catalyst to make something happen sooner rather than later as suggested by Mike.
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[quote=“leanandgreen, post:106, topic:952”]
Medinah likely will accept a HUGE DISCOUNT from the original $100M option price. $10M up front for example.
Medinah receives a ramped up percentage cut on the early production (50%?) until they take in the $90M balance of what is due from the option price tag. Then it will revert back to an 85/15 or maybe we get an 80/20 or 75/25 for extending these terms to them. (This would serve as the enhanced long-term prospect that Medinah referred to).
[/quote] … and IF this IS the “new Medinah” there will be a lot of “Happy Campers” that have waited far too long to realize a gain. Also, IF the scenario you outlined transpires, when the TO for the 15% is put on the table it will garner much more interest and a much higher price to conclude. Once the TO offer is made public (three months advance notice?) the PPS and volume traded will rise rapidly. Will a lowball TO be successful if the price offered does not reflect the early production and exploration results?
FYI, article listing 10 biggest Molybdenum producers:
http://metals.about.com/od/Top-10-Producers/tp/The-10-Biggest-Molybdenum-Producers-2013.htm
It doesn’t happen b/c the plan does not make sense.
If we only get $20M now vs. $100M later with the balance of the $80 from a clawback/split of “near term” production opportunities there would be a new element of risk to this investment. This is exactly the risk the market is currently discounting to our presumed “FMV”. If MDMN buys $20M worth of stock at say 4 cents and reduces our OS to 900M what happens next?
While it’s a lazy convenience to blame the market makers or a lack of due diligence/exposure to our depressed share price, the market is obviously not convinced we will be receiving $100M in cash (7.5 cents). If, as an example, we only receive $20M in cash now (with the promise of $80M+ as production ramps) our market cap would be trading “at cash”. Since there is no guarantee that production will occur our 50, 30, or 15% of said production will trade at a highly discounted rate until we have a better sense for the economics. Starting with a 43-101 at minimum and a bankable feasibility study down the road. The only way our share price will begin to reflect the upside of “near-term production” opportunities, in the absence a PFS, will be over time and trailing cash flows.
Bottom line: if our BOD is dumb enough to give up the $100M, either through early advancements, a clawback of cash flows, or a greater percentage of AMC, we will all suffer the consequences. Given our BOD’s history of judgement and overall “deal making” acumen, the market isn’t totally “crazy” in assuming the worse.
Those who believe the constant bashing of management is overdone are the same people who struggle (and will continue to struggle) to understand why we are trading at 2 cents.
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So you’re saying there is no market manipulation going on?
Looks like another yawner for the day.
Lets get some news
Market manipulation is a constant across almost every asset class. I’m saying that making the assumption that our depressed share price is based on evil market makers or manipulation, is “mis” or “under informed” point of view that doesn’t weigh all of the other factors at work.
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The manipulation is worst in penny land and not just by market makers. A group of shareholders can play into the margin game to help feed it especially when they can f:!k with the bid and ask to control the charts as well.
IMO you don’t even need level 2 to see it happening