Gosh…The ask is getting hammered with no uptick in price…Frustrating…
Fair enough and, FWIW. I believe there would be a reduction of shares at the expense of your buddy Les amongst others if a proper audit was advanced. I have no doubt this consideration is on the table. However, while we wait, the preferreds are growing (per the financials) so assuming dilution is no longer a factor is analogous to assuming out previous BOD had a mining plan. Dangerous assumptions until we are provided empirical evidence to he contrary. IMO
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what are you talking about?
Great close for precious metals…fwiw…hopefully many people here have some other exposure to the space while we wait for this to play out. It will happen but a lot of patience will be required (even with Wiz tweeting and posting on FB).
A month ago I had made a post that contained a chart comparing a few stocks to the Silver ETF (SIL) … I hope some of us took a look and used it to gain some exposure. For those that may not have seen it:
Many of the above companies have had very nice gains.
Have you done any computations on how this may influence our $.10/$.20 TO?
Actually, if you look at todays trades we did result in an uptick of pressure on both the bid and the ask. A few days ago there was some distance between the bid and the ask. Now the push up has closed that distance. I know it’s not as much as we might like to see but hopefully this support is the start for moving in that upward direction.
And past incompetent Management… The legacy lives on until AMC can break the trends of the past …plain and simple!! The POG may counter the share dilution, only way out other than outstanding shares.
TDK
This week a couple of forum participants quoted some often cited mining statistics that got me thinking. We’ve all heard that there is somewhere in between a 1-in-1,000 and perhaps 1-in-10,000 chance of a junior explorer ever making a significant mining discovery that made it all of the way into production.
We’ve also heard that for that lucky junior explorer the average time it takes from the commencement of exploration to that first day of production is somewhere in between 15 years (according to Newleaf’s source) and 27 years according to the World Gold Council as cited by Pierre Lassonde at one of the Grant’s Interest Rate Monitor meetings in NYC.
If you project these stats onto a baseball scoreboard, wherein a run is equal to 1,000 ounces of gold production and an inning represents one month, even that lucky junior explorer that was the 1-in perhaps 5,000 or junior explorers to get a discovery into production posted goose eggs (zero production) for the first 200 or so innings/months. Once a junior explorer with a deposit like that present at the ADL posts its first “run” (1,000 ounces of gold production) it’s probably going to have about ( a guess) 360 straight innings (30 years) of production and no more goose eggs. This gold production/run production will typically ramp up nicely at first and then plateau out.
So the overall scoreboard for the lucky explorers has a couple of hundred goose eggs followed by a very long period (proportionate to mine life) of “run” production. Wouldn’t the optimal investment paradigm from a risk/reward point of view involve WAITING until a junior explorer scored that first “run” (went into production) and therefore IRREFUTABLY PROVED that it belongs in the 1-in-5,000 club before pulling the trigger on an investment? (20-20 hindsight) It seems to me that once the hoops and hurdles needed to clear in order to score that first run are cleared and that first run is scored further run production is fairly low risk.
As far as the ADL deposit’s scoreboard, we’re being told that 2016 should involve the production of 5,000 gold ounces over about the last 4 months in the year. Let’s estimate 1,000 ounces in Sept. and Oct. and 1,500 ounces in November and December. In 2017, we’re being told to expect at least 25,000 ounces of gold production or an average of about 2,000 ounces per month. If we’re producing 1,500 ounces per month at 2016 year end then let’s say we’ll be producing about 2,500 ounces in December of 2017. If we assume we’ll be producing 1,500 ounces per month in the first 6 months of 2017 and 2,500 per month in the last 6 months then you’ll get your “about 25,000 ounces”.
Back to the scoreboard analogy, that’s a pretty “busy” scoreboard after 200 goose eggs in a row. As the sites permitted for production increase over time and the number of ounces allowable AT EACH SITE go up over time that scoreboard could be looking pretty interesting. If AMC is intentionally “sandbagging” their production estimates in order to “underpromise and overdeliver” then the scoreboard could look even more impressive. I’d keep an eye on the first several months of production tdo see if they are indeed near 1,000 to 1,500 ounces per month.
I’m wondering if this current lack of interest in our stock is basically the market saying “hay Medinah, PROVE that you belong in the 1-in-5,000 club”. Those of us that have been following AMC and how they operate have a strong feeling as to what they’re going to do but others not so familiar with them have obviously chosen to take a wait and see approach actually which makes sense. I’d be curious as to how many mining analysts and mining investors follow this investment paradigm because it seems to be kind of a no-brainer.
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No. There is no influence. I’m assuming we can now conclude that MDMN is not correlated to the GDX/J despite the tired posts here claiming the same. Let me be candid. I’m invested here b/c I think MDMN will eventually support a 10-15 cent valuation ( I don’t think 20 cents is realistic anymore given that AMC would need to be valued at $1.5 billion for MDMN to get to 20 cents). We have never been in a better position to eventually become a legitimate mining play. I’m looking to add but not until there are some big hurdles cleared.
The talk about 1 in 5000 mining cos being successful and a typical 10 year development cycle as it relates to MDMN is beyond absurd. The 10-15 year development cycle is not comparable to MDMN where they drilled some holes 10 yeas ago, issued a billion shares, and then finally partnered with someone with the capacity to develope the mountain. The typical “development cycle:” assumes a continuous exploration, permitting, production progression. To claim that MDMN followed this schematic is beyond ridiculous.
Additionally, to claim that MDMN, who is initiating a surface, toll mill production plan is in the same category as the 1 in 10,000 mines that goes into production is equally ridiculous. I’m honestly not sure if Decosta believes what he posts or if the decades involved have permanently warped his reality on this investment. HOWEVER, it’s not rare for smaller mining operations to pursue near-term production opportunities to self-fund larger mining plans (I’m invested in three projects mining a few 100 thousand open pit ounces doing exactly that). This is NOT comparable to the 1/5000 garbage being tossed around which is more applicable to the 30+ mine life, world class depoist, projects.
I apologize if my posts seem overly negative but I’m, admittedly worn out by the misinformation posted by the Breeciaboy’s of the world. This investment will pay some very healthy dividends but I strongly encourage people to educate themselves on the realistic fundamentals of this investment to avoid hyperbole that often goes unchallenged.
In anticipation of your next question. No, I don’t think anything I can post on this board will ground expectations. There are far too may people looking for their next lottery ticket, desperate for “next week”, or Brecciaobys “eternal disconnect”, to seriously weigh my point of view but that’s what makes a market. I hope everyone enjoys the 4rh!
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Yes, I disagree, although there are a few more milestones to be reached. We will be on an accelerated schedule post 2017. The Caren mine exploitation is nearing, with greater accelerated cash flow to follow:
[quote=“easymillion, post:1104, topic:1280”]
Just noting the initial cutoff grade on the Caren mine:
AURYN’s engineers plan to ramp up production to achieve this level of production during the next 6 to 8 months, with a cut-off grade of 15 g/t gold. Metallurgical tests conducted at laboratories in Perú returned an average gold recovery greater than 90%. Test conditions confirmed the best recovery method entails use of a Falcon gravimetric system processing previously concentrated ore.
and for Sepro’s Falcon SB Gravity Concentrator:
The target mineral will usually be in extremely low concentration (grams per tonne) and a very high upgrade is desired (up to 10,000x). 
Surface gold sampling in the Fortuna area was not extremely high. The above use description of a concentrator appears to be most suitable to the planned open pit. It can process up to 400 t/h! AURYN has shown itself to be a short term and long term planner. I would expect early exploitation cash flow numbers to jump very quickly once the open pit Fortuna mine becomes operational.[/quote]
Also note:
An option agreement has been granted to MDMN to acquire an additional 5% of AURYN for US$50 million over a five year period commencing at contract signing. The option can be exercised by MDMN at its sole discretion.
What could the reason be for mentioning this clause when announcing the contract? MDMN has no mining claims at this time to receive additional revenues. Is MDMN expected to be around in 5 years? Will a sufficient number of dividends be issued within the 5 year option timeframe to buy back a boatload of OS and reward MDMN shareholders (including MASGLAS) with cash in hand? Will a TO occur for a percentage of MDMN’s AURYN shares? 2021 is quite a long timeframe for unexpected developments to occur. Time will tell.
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Everybody left standing knows the score. To hold our former Clown School Board of Directors responsible for this travesty is being charitable, but we all know that, and repeating it adnauseum is not going to do a blessed thing to improve our position. Everybody understands the intense frustration of the shareholders, but thankfully it’s a new day. We came perilously close to loosing the whole mountain and our investment to their congenital stupidity…but we didn’t. In many respects we got dumb lucky…it may take some time to show just how much our fortunes turned, but those who can hang on for a bit longer will be glad they did. I feel nothing but anger and sorrow for the many many investors who got corn holed by "done done done’, etc. etc… There’s a thing called karma…may they get a taste of what they’ve got coming sooner than later. In the meantime, look forward with gratitude that the cavalry came over the hill in the nick of time.
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" ( I don’t think 20 cents is realistic anymore given that AMC would need to be valued at $1.5 billion for MDMN to get to 20 cents)"
Do you actually think that AMC will not get a chance to reach that target? In other words what you are saying is that AMC would not be able to prove up 2 mil ounces with the Merlin veins and the Fortuna (including LDM and others) combined with an all in cost lets say 700.00/oz(which is quite high with our infrastructure). And I guess the Pegaso Nero is just wasteland that is not worth anything?
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Go back and look at those google images that Davis posted. I think with the work Auryn is doing being aggressive on the attack this stock will be worth more than .20 when we start producing and bring the 5000 in jmo
Gold moving up “Cash flow positive”= perfect storm
I don’t understand your question. I can only hope, for your sake, you aren’t under the impression that you multiply the ounces in ground (in-situ) by spot price $1300/oz to calculate market cap. Ounces in ground are going for $10-$20 per at this point (Using your example $40M). I have to defer to CHG on these matters who has a very admirable patience for walking people thru these subjects.
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We certainly understand you are not claiming that all gold in the ground has a value between $10 and $20.00 per ounce. You know the value all depends on the specifics of the deposit. Examples
- Deposit 1 One million ounces - Extract in one year - Cost to extract $5,000.00/oz - No value
- Deposit 2 One million ounces - Extract in one year - Cost to extract $100.00/oz - Value in ground is a lot greater than $20.00/oz
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No. You don’t seem to understand.
First Mine Finance has been acquiring attractive projects/deposits for under $10 an ounce. I rounded up to $20 because of the recent bump in precious metals. At the height of the market, the most desirable (low cost producers if you want to use your example) were receiving $100-$200oz in situ. Those were highly profitable projects with long mine lives and, as it turned out in most case, the acquirers paid too much.
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