I wouldn’t say I’m being overly pessimistic. Perhaps a better characterization would be “overly cautious”. That is a mindset that I will maintain until developments and facts bear out otherwise. For example, I personally am very confident and optimistic that the company will succeed in its cases against Les Price and Okanadian. However, I’m not operating with that outcome being a given. I’m also optimistic that ADL will eventually prove to be more than just an economic deposit. However, I’m not going to operate as if that is a given either.
We don’t have to look any further than Auryn itself as an example of why keeping a cautiously optimistic mindset is important for shareholders. I understand that Auryn tries to be overly conservative in its projections and forward-looking statements. They had previously released public guidance to shareholders that they were confident in attaining their goal of production of 5,000 troy ounces in 2016 and 25,000 troy ounces in 2017. Obviously that didn’t happen in 2016 which leads shareholders to question “What happened to production?” and so on. I think many of us understand that mining is an inexact science and unexpected delays caused by regulatory, financial or geological setbacks can and do happen. However, not enough shareholders understand this and they took Auryn at their word and did not allow for the possibility that there are external forces that could impact the best laid plans. By not allowing for a certain degree of slippage and disappointment in their expectations, shareholders erode their own confidence in and patience with Auryn. Ironically, this then pushes their opinion to the other side of the spectrum of being overly pessimistic and frustrated. This frustration is then borne out in these forums.
So with my “overly cautious” mindset, I’m just trying to maintain enough of a counterweight in my opinions and expectations to keep that from happening.
Start-up delays in mining are common. Delays going forward should be infrequent assuming Auryn is a competent miner. We have every reason to think that they are. Projecting that the delays initially encountered will be the norm going forward is being overly pessimistic.
Funny. Just my opinion but if we assume 3B shares outstanding I would say that MDMN is fairly valued (CDCH 60-70%undervalued). A $100M valuation for Auryn would be very generous based on where we are at today. The upside obviously comes with advancement in production and the resource but the market has it about right today.
The 20 year disconnect broken record keeps on turning but most are now wise enough to turn off the volume. I’m not saying there isn’t exciting potential for upside in this investment but the capital structure has officially killed the golden goose and most of the perpetrators won’t face consequences.
in 2012 we went from .0046 to .17 if I remember ,and this on pure speculation, now everything is real, no more speculation, when we will start making money we will go up fairly fast to a valuation of 100M.
How can you say $100M is fair value for Auryn? Have you seen preliminary information that makes you all knowing?
If so, let’s hear it.
No one knows what Auryn will be worth until we get more info.
Auryn’s value will grow and there is a very real possibility of a major signing a JV on PN in the first to second quarter this year based on comments from Informational meeting.
Granted the share structure needs to be defined but my hopes this will happen this year.
if the share structure gets defined, mdmn starts receiving revenue and a major comes into the picture, we should do very well.
Then how is it that you say " The market has it about right today "?
No one, including the market has a clue as to what Auryn is worth. In my opinion, Auryn and more so Freeport McMoran ( and other majors sniffing around ) would not be wasting any time, needless to say, money, on this mountain unless they saw $billions of potential.
Saying Auryn is worth $100million today because you extrapulated it from MDMN’s current value is ridiculous!
MDMN’s value today is an incalculable number. No serious investors are going to buy into MDMN until there is a lot more visibility on Auryns value and our capital strucuture is resolved. Which will be the sole basis for MDMN’s value.
I’m saying that a $100M valuation for Auryn would be extremely generous based on what we know TODAY. That’s how the market works. It tees of what we know today and begins to discount the potential of what we may know as things progress. There is a fair amount of information to digest. More and more everyday. I don’t think there is some major disconnect in where we are trading and the “true market value of MDMN.” If you can offer an argument as to why we should be trading higher I’d love to see it but we need a LOT more information on the resource, mine plan, reasonable expectations of annual production, etc. When there are this many unknowns, a stock typically trades at a discount ($100M is not discount for a project at this stage).
if you include what Vittal and Chapin returned plus the first claw back approximately 300 M shares which includes the equivalent amount of common from the convertible preferred stock that also has been returned so far, If you look at only issued common, it is only about 170 M shares that have been returned so far.
Claw Back: 57 M common plus additional 10 M common when the stock hits .025 and preferred shares convertible into 127 M Common
Vittal: 65 M common plus 10 M restricted common
Chapin: 34 M common Plus preferred convertible into 32 M common.
Also Vittal return 118,000 Shares of Auryn stock and Chapin returned 1.706 M shares of Auryn stock as well.
I don’t think this is any secret since Facebook is a public forum and the post has several likes. Kevin is in Chile conducting Auryn and Medinah business. You go Kevin.