I don’t think its dramatic at all. Its reality. If they raise money and go over budget its highly unlikely they will be able to pursue another round of financing. Even if they were succesful at raising more money the dilution (at considerably lower levels) would dilute existing shareholders into obvlivion (again). I’m just suggesting that they raise considerably more than the bugdet to provide a cushion. Given how long its already taken Maurizio to raise equity financing I wouldn’t assume its going to happen but, for the sake of this conversation, I’m just assuming it will ultimately happen.
The obvious question: why not just ship ore to Enami over the next 12-18 months required to build the floatation plant?? If the average grades were 60gpt+ and there was plenty of it, there really is NO reasonable explanation. The obvious answer: the grades aren’t high enough and the scale/volume isn’t large enough to offset the transportation costs. Building a plant isn’t the best option, its the only option. To disagree with this point would require providing an explanation as to why they aren’t in production, generating cash flow, by sending ore to Enami, while investors wait until 2025 for the onsite plant.
But, but, there is a “$5,000 economic impact” per ton…if there were enough tons why would AUMC not just bridge the gap with production via Enami? If they were in production the financing to build the plant would be considerably less dilutive and they would have access to cashflow to buffer any cost overruns, and they would add crediibilty to the grades/resource, and they would expedite permitting, and they could gradually grow the workforce, and they would be able to afford mechanization to scale the mining, and their execution in successuflly building the plant on time and budget wouldn’t be existential, and they would begin to edify their relationship with Enami as a valued client. It doesn’t add up b/c it doesn’t add up.
20gpt and 100 tpd, with a flotation plant…as a solid, small-scall producer with ~10,000 ounces a year is a realistic goalpost. The assumption has to be that building a plant is the only feasible mine/business plan. If they can raise the money and execute there is money to be made (from the ~20 cent level). IMHO, I believe investors will have plenty of time to add or initiate a position at these price levels once we have considerably more visibility on progress. Patience is a virtue.
I was thinking the same. Gold is at all time highs. I guess we won’t know because they aren’t releasing what’s being stockpiled.
The obvious question: why not just ship ore to Enami over the next 12-18 months required to build the floatation plant?? If the average grades were 60gpt+ and there was plenty of it, there really is NO reasonable explanation.
If they choose a dilutive financing option versus shipping to enami to fund the plant, they will need to do some serious explaining and brace for some heavy blowback, especially if its some insider deal.
The way it was explained is that its like throwing money away to pay the enami fees. Thats how most of us read it. They seem bullish. If this ends up being dilutive, we need to call BS on them. If they can’t lock down non-dilutive financing, they should and likely will switch gears and ship to enami until the plant is funded.
If? There is no scenario where paying for the plant isn’t dilutive. You need to ignore the other narratives that have never, ever, been accurate. A JV or royalty, or debt financing are not available to a company without MR/MR. Another dose of reality.
$5M-$10M is not impossible to secure without dilution. You have $X amount of collateral sitting in a pile already waiting to be processed. You don’t build a 100 tpd plant if the resource isn’t there. That doesn’t seem to be a monumental obstacle that cannot be overcome as you are making it out to be. We aren’t talking about financing an extensive drill program. This is financing a plant that results in immediate cashflow upon completion.
If dilution of any significance is the only financing option available as you predict, they need to abort mission and begin shipping to Enami, PERIOD. We wait to see what they come up with.
Interesting opinion, baldy. But, unless you are MC’s shadow, you cannot ‘reasonably’ announce with any certainty that there is “NO Reasonable explanation” as to why they aren’t shipping ore to ENAMI. To say that it’s “obvious”(that the grades AND the volume aren’t large/high enough) is pure speculation at best. I don’t know about anyone else, but I’d rather believe what AURYN management & visiting experts say. I cannot allow you to claim certainty and dictate to me what (you think) we should believe.
Those are your opinions, that’s cool!
And this is mine…
The well-respected visitors of “German professors and academics” thoroughly inspected the Antonino Tunnel and other areas in early December. The reputable Dr. Helmut Mischo acknowledged that there are “significant mineral deposits…” Although you are knowledgeable about mining companies, I highly doubt that you are nearly as knowledgeable as the experts regarding the specifics of mine design, planning, & mineralization, etc.
Just take a deep breath, baldy, and accept the fact that you do not know everything.
Jaded. I’ve missed your valuable particiption. I don’t know much of anything BUT, if I was a farmer looking to build a mill, would I sit on my crop for 18 months hemoraging money or would I harvest the crop I have, live to fight another day, and make more money on that crop once the mill is in place? Yes, I apreciate that my crop would go bad but I’m attempting to offer a useful analogy. Unless you are running a biotech company generating profits today is paramount. Especialy when on a shoe-string budget and borrowing from the founder to pay bills.
If Maurizio has 100’s of thousands of tonnes of high grade ore and can make money sending said ore to Enami to bridge the wait, why wouldn’t he do so if it meant making a profit and acheiving all of the other positives Iisted in my post? Just send a couple thousand tons a month. It wouldn’t dent the presumed “resource.” My opinion is that this is NOT an option due to the actual grade and scale of the resource.
I’m sure there are “signficant mineral deposits” as the good German professor suggested post his “inspection”. Unfortunately that is not germane to my point. Nor is it logical to pursue an existential strategy based on the possibility of giving up $5,000 of financial impact for 18 months vs. realizing profits today while investors wait for the $5,000 benefit down the road. It is my opinion that the Enami option has deemed to be uneconomic but I’m all ears for a different REASONABLE explanation.
You analogy is ‘cute,’ but patronizing me is not. I hear your opinion, and it’s not bad. So why don’t you ask MC directly, ask him why he is not sending ore to ENAMI. I mean, you don’t want to speak for him, do ya?
I know that MC, with the entourage of experts and entities all around him, is very conscious of his plan. MC has worked so hard on all the progress made thus far, and it sounds like he has his whole life riding on this baby. He wouldn’t make the decision to build the floatation plant if any of the experts advised him not to, either.
Damn, every time I visualize what MC looks like, I see Vladimir Zelenski instead.
Plus throw in the POG at 2030. I would want to get that ore in production and start to pay myself off that 4 million plus that I have already invested.
As an editor I would urge you not to quit your day job.
It may be worth reviewing the archives (happy to provide a tutorial), where I have encouraged, ad naseum, some of the more “vocal” paticipants here to actually call the company to help inform their opinions. I did. Remember?
Exactly. That would be the sane choice if it were economic to do so. I don’t think Maurizio is insane. Just an opinion but the decision to pivot to an onsite plant and forgo any opportunity for interim cash flow is extremely informative. The (seemingly obvious) conclusion doesn’t need to take investors to a dark place of despair but rather serves to ground expectations to a more reasonable bar from which the company can clear.
The stock is already a zero (.0006). Maybe its time to start presenting an accurate assessment/realistic scenario as a foundation for the company to build upon. Speculating on rainbows and (literal) pots of gold have proven to be financially disastrous.
Averaging 20+gpt sounds like it should be profitable shipping to Enami. I appreciate the transporation challenges but the more plausible reason to forgoe it and stockpile is that they simply don’t want to waste money paying high fees.
I will stand corrected if they choose a financing package that has a dilutive effect much worse than absorbing those Enami fees.
One would think but 200miles+ down a winding hill could be pretty costly We also have no idea for the mining costs of any small scale production. I would assume, if they were sending a couple truck loads a day, averaging 20gpt, this would/should turn a profit. Sooo, we are missing some key input for this decision beyond making more money later vs. making some money today. It doesn’t jive with the “miner’s mindset.”
Hey baldy, thanks for using Google to find the correct spelling of Zelenskyy’s name. I am not Ukranian, and neither are you — but the phoenetic spelling was suitable in an informal post. No sense whining about it.
FYI: Your grammar is incorrect in that sentence. The way you’ve written it, you are saying that you are the editor. The correct structure is: “I would urge you against quitting your day job as an editor.”
You enjoy disparaging my profession due to your own insecurities. Demeaning and insulting others somehow makes you feel more important than you are. But, editing is only my secondary profession as I graduated from R.E.T.S. Electronic School in Detroit (1977-80) before leaving for my career at Motorola Gov’t & Aerospace Division in Scottsdale, AZ. More specifically, I designed & wired circuitry from engineering schematics (two of everything) within NASA’s state-of-the-art facility, materials and tools.
Still, I can provide you with information about the lowly art of journalism and it’s many forms. I don’t want to burst your bubble, but … with all the grammatical errors I see in nearly every post you write, you’d never qualify as an editor. You would still benefit from learning the different styles of journalism & reporting. Simply put, you do not have the credentials to criticize the mechanics of writing in my posts. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
… Apparently you don’t remember BB posting about the questions he posed to management …
Remember?? I doubt you even read that, cuz u don’t really read BB’s posts. By telling BB or others they need to call management, you have deniability when it comes to repeating that request several times — ad nauseum. Either way, it’s up to others whether they want to call them or not.
Yes. I remember that BB sent an email to a third party who occasionally speaks to the company to make a suggestion (which was ignored) to better inform investors on average grades of the accumulating pile of dirt (which is impossible to do without an onsite lab of some sort). This would not be the same or even in the ballpark of actually picking up the phone and speaking to the company. But I would agree that every invidivual can make their own decision on how to best understand (or misunderstand) this investment. The repercussions of making this decision/non-decision are pretty clear every time we get a new PR from the company.
Now that we agree to disagree please go back to your job at NASA. Habitation of Mars has to be more productive and less emotionally taxing than “trying” to rebutt my posts/opinions.
To understand this investment, you have to pay close attention to the data provided by the company and other members’ solid research. Trying to decipher anything must include Data from the Shareholders’ Updates, without contradicting them.
When criticizing BB, don’t just throw vague accusations at him willy nilly. Why not include his post(s) in question and point out specifics clarifying where and why you disagree. Otherwise your spiteful venom and obsession with the distant past significantly dilutes whatever point you were trying to make.
Baldy, You claim that I’m “‘trying’ to rebutt my posts/opinions.” The only thing I rebutt are your personal attacks or condescending BS against me. Others too. I’ll sometimes respond when you beat your chest to impersonate King Kong, or when you present your guesses & opinions as facts. I’m not gonna believe everything you say without question, even though those are your expectations. You don’t like that? Too bad.
Hey jds - you should know that I don’t make constant disparaging remarks or personal attacks against baldy. Please withhold judgement until you know what’s really going on. I have been defending myself against John’s personal attacks for a few months now, as are a scant few others. That’s easy to verify.
Of course I cringe when he claims to know more than management & the experts do, but it’s all good as long as he clarifies that it’s only his opinion without attacking. He is so often insulting and cruel without any provocation. He might post good information here and there, but rarely without putting a dig against doc in some way. Sometimes I want to click “LIKE” on his post, but then I see the baseless attacks.
Baldy often creates a hostile environment for those who he disagrees with, and those who disagree with him. So, when he gets too personal/nasty with his attacks, I WILL defend myself.
I even complimented John in my second post, without any disparaging remarks. Unfortunately, he had his guns loaded – and that’s where the personal attacks began.
I’d appreciate if you would point out which of my posts today were unjustly attacking baldy, considering his condescending, personal attacks, & character assassinations. His attacks may not be directed at you, but that doesn’t negate his foulness against others. Thinking someone is attacking baldy is almost funny. He needs to put his foul behavior in check. I guarantee that I’m not alone with this viewpoint.
No hard feelings, jds … just tell your pot and the kettle to get back in the kitchen.
